1. 1 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION I GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI HAB Particle Model Buoyancy += HAB Intensity Location Initial Location + Remote Sensing Hydrodynamic Model Field / Laboratory MODIS HAB Detection Remote Sensing Hydrodynamic Model Field / Laboratory Currents + NOS/NCCOS Mixing

2. 2 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION I GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI HAB Particle Model Buoyancy = HAB Intensity Location Initial Location + Field / Laboratory Remote Sensing Hydrodynamic Model LEOFS - currents Time (Hours) Depth (m) 0 -2 -3 -4 Turbulent Diffusivity (Mixing) -2 -3 -4 -5 + Currents + Mixing

3. 3 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION I GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI HAB Particle Model Buoyancy = HAB Intensity Location Initial Location + Hydrodynamic Model Field / Laboratory Remote Sensing Mean colony diameter (μm) Buoyant velocity (μm s -1 ) Buoyant velocity (μm s -1 ) Freq. Microcystis Mean colony diameter (μm) Freq. + Currents + Mixing

4. 4 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION I GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI Model Starting Conditions MODISHAB Detection Surface HAB particles t0t0 (Present Time) Depth (m) Vertical Distribution Mixed Layer Depth NOS/NCCOS How to translate surface (2D) scum into 3D bloom?

5. 5 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION I GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI Model Initialization t0t0 (Present Time) Depth (m) Vertical Distribution Mixed Layer Depth How to translate surface (2D) scum into 3D bloom?

6. 6 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION I GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI Short-term HAB Forecast Vertical Distribution 12345 Forecast Day Depth (m) 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Image time (Animation Available Upon Request)

7. 7 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION I GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI Forecast Validation Current 2D Capability Next-Generation 3D Forecast Remote Sensing Observations Aug 6, 2011 Aug 7, 2011 Aug 15, 2011 100 80 60 40 30 20 0 Chlorophyll-a μg L -1

8. 8 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION I GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI Forecast Validation

9. 9 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION I GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI Forecast Day Existing 2D model Next-generation 3D model Pierce Skill Score (PSS) model vs. persistence 1-2 3-45-6 7-89-10 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Forecast Validation 3D model with buoyancy improves skill out to 10 days! Sub-surface concentrations follow observed conditions Surface Concentration Cumulative Frequency Center of Mass (σ) Bias = -0.01 RMSD = 0.08 Vertical Distribution Observed Model

10. 10 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION I GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI Conclusions Next-generation Great Lakes Operation Forecast System (GLOFS) Improvements in 3D water temperature, currents Transition to FVCOM Higher coastal resolution Improved over-water meteorology (3-km data-assimilated HRRR model) Lake Erie FVCOM is operational this month Lake Michigan-Huron is next (2018) Complete upgrade to GLOFS by 2021

11. 11 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION I GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI Conclusions Improvements to short-term HAB forecasting HAB particle model development 3D model & vertical mixing scheme Better surface and coastal concentrations Microcystis buoyant velocity improves scum/mixing Next-gen models improve over-water meteorology and circulation Critical for bloom transport, toxicity, hypoxia Moving toward Cleveland or Ontario? Need to adjust treatment or restrict drinking water Future of forecasting Can growth dynamics improve short-term forecasts? How do we forecast toxicity information? Next-steps toward a 3D biophysical model

12. 12 NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION I GREAT LAKES ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LAB I ANN ARBOR MI Questions?