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7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.1 29 th International Traffic Records Forum Using Multiple Imputation to Resolve Missing Data Issues.

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Presentation on theme: "7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.1 29 th International Traffic Records Forum Using Multiple Imputation to Resolve Missing Data Issues."— Presentation transcript:

1 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.1 29 th International Traffic Records Forum Using Multiple Imputation to Resolve Missing Data Issues

2 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.2 1. Imputation Methodology Mike McGlincy: Multiple imputation methodology and its appropriateness for highway safety missing data

3 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.3 2. The Number of Links Mike Allen: Estimating the true number of records that should link when imputing missing links

4 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.4 3. Sensitivity Analysis Jenny Qin: Performing sensitivity analyses of imputed missing values

5 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.5 4. Presenting Imputed Results Ted Donnelly: How to inspire confidence in the audience when presenting results based on imputed data

6 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.6 Research Question What is the effect of helmet use on inpatient charges for motorcycle riders discharged alive?

7 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.7 Traditional Linkage & Analysis Prepare crash and inpatient data Find high probability links Analyze complete cases

8 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.8 Prepare Data

9 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.9 Find High Probability Links

10 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.10 Linkage Results  527 high probability linked record pairs (44% of 1,200 estimated total).  56 motorcycle inpatients links, 19 with complete data.

11 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.11 Regression Analysis The REG Procedure © 2001 The SAS Institute, Inc. Model Information Data SetWORK.MC90 Model CHARGES = HELMET By Out Est Data SetWORK.OUTREG

12 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.12 Analysis Results  Regression analysis of 19 complete cases (34% of high probability links)  Estimated Effect = -$8,746

13 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.13 Missing Data Issues  High levels of missing links and missing values introduce uncertainty about true effect of helmet use.  Complete case analysis is probably not representative of all motorcycle inpatients.

14 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.14 A Key to Better Results Solve missing data problems with a multiple imputation strategy

15 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.15 Multiple Imputation 1.Make several estimates for all missing links and missing values (imputations). 2.Do a separate analysis for each complete imputation. 3.Average the separate results.

16 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.16 Valid Imputations For valid (“proper”) imputations, missing links and values must be chosen according to a posterior probability distribution determined by Bayesian analysis.

17 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.17 Bayesian Analysis 1.Create a joint probability distribution (a model) relating all observable and unobservable quantities in the problem. 2.Determine parameters in the model by taking into account all observed data.

18 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.18 A Key to Better Linkage Use CODES2000 or LinkSolv software for multiple imputation of missing links

19 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.19 Impute Missing Links

20 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.20 Linkage Results  1,296 imputed linked record pairs (vs. 527 high probability links and 1,200 estimated total links).  72 motorcycle inpatients links (vs. 56 high probability links).

21 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.21 A Key to Better Analysis Use SAS MI, NORM, or S+ software for multiple imputation of missing values

22 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.22 Impute Missing Values The MI Procedure © 2001 The SAS Institute, Inc. Model Information Data SetWORK.MCMINORM MethodMCMC Multiple Imputation ChainSingle Chain Initial Estimates for MCMCEM Posterior Mode StartStarting Value PriorJeffreys Number of Imputations5 Number of Burn-in Iterations200 Number of Iterations100 Seed for random number generator37851

23 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.23 Regression Analysis The REG Procedure © 2001 The SAS Institute, Inc. Model Information Data SetWORK.MCMI25 Model CHARGES = HELMET By_IMPUTATION_ Out Est Data SetWORK.OUTREG

24 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.24 Multiple Helmet Effects

25 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.25 Combined Helmet Effect The MIANALYZE Procedure © 2001 The SAS Institute, Inc. Model Information Data SetWORK.OUTREG Number of Imputations25

26 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.26 Helmet Effect Comparison  Traditional analysis: Helmet Effect = -$8,746  Multiple imputation analysis: Helmet Effect = -$2,150

27 7/14/2003(c) 2003 Strategic Matching, Inc.27 Highway Safety Imputations FARS missing links: Crash to Death FARS missing values: BAC CODES missing links: Crash to Med CODES missing values: Belts, DUI…

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