1. INFO 7470/ECON 7400/ILRLE 7400 Register-based statistics John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber March 4, 2013 and April 4, 2016

2. What Is Different? “Classical” Census of population and housing: field enumeration “Register” Census: partially or wholly based on administrative data (“registers”) 3/4/2013 © John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber 2013, all rights reserved 2

3. What Is a Register? A register aims to be a complete list of objects An administrative register is an (exhaustive) list of objects to be administered A statistical register is a transformation of an administrative register for statistical purposes Wallgren and Wallgren (2007) A register is a repository which stores information about statistical units and is directly updated in the course of events affecting the statistical units EU (2011) 3/4/2013 © John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber 2013, all rights reserved 3

4. What Is a Register-based Census? A register-based Census uses data from the administrative records to “fill the forms” Most census frames are already maintained through a combination of enumeration and administrative records – Population and Housing frames (Session 2) – Business and establishment frames (Session 3) 3/4/2013 © John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber 2013, all rights reserved 4

5. Register-based Censuses Many European censuses of population and housing make “growing use of information from administrative registers to compare, complete or even replace information obtained from ‘classical’ field enumerations” (EU, 2011) – 2001 censuses: 7 countries used administrative registers as one of the data sources – 2011 censuses: 16 countries 3/4/2013 © John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber 2013, all rights reserved 5

6. Dutch Virtual Census 2001 Makes use of the Social Statistical Database (SSD) – “main source of the 2001 Census” (Statistics Netherlands, 2004)Statistics Netherlands, 2004 Last complete enumeration was in 1971 Census 2001 tabulated in 2003 Estimate of the cost of “traditional” Census: $300 million – The Virtual Census cost $3 million 3/4/2013 © John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber 2013, all rights reserved 6

7. Some Details Justified by – declining response rate of the population – Efficiency Brings with it – Larger acceptance (claimed) Background – 1991: Census law “rescinded” – no further legal obligation to produce census! – 2003: new statistical law – Creation of 2001 Census on a “voluntary” basis: “inconceivable [to] (…) not compile census data (…) like all other European countries” 3/4/2013 © John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber 2013, all rights reserved 7

8. Issues in the Netherlands Virtual Census Issues – Start of data work was later than a traditional census – retrospective rather than contemporaneous – waited for all registers to be “complete” – But: Census was completed earlier than comparable other European countries – Some loss of detail (not present in registers) – Source: combination of all municipal population registers – Combined with select surveys (Labor Force Survey, etc.) 3/4/2013 © John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber 2013, all rights reserved 8

9. So is This New? For population census in the US: – 2000: creation of StARS 1999 (Statistical Administrative Records System) Use in AREX 2000 evaluation (Asher & Fienberg, 2001, 2002) Successor systems under evaluation for use in 2020 Census For establishment censuses in the US – Economic Census: Most small employers and all non- employers were not sent forms: any data comes from “administrative records of other federal agencies” [2007]2007 – QCEW: entirely based on administrative data 3/4/2013 © John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber 2013, all rights reserved 9

10. So Not Really So New For job statistics – Since 2003, LEHD – the only “job census” – has created a register of (almost) all jobs Combination of state registers of jobs (but purpose of register is not count jobs!) Use of administrative information on demographic characteristics, complemented with imputes 3/4/2013 © John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber 2013, all rights reserved 10

11. Why Not Use It for 2020 Census? Research into this is ongoing Problem #1: the US doesn’t actually have a Population Register – But birth, death, and migration records used for intercensal estimates Register-based Censuses also have issues – Timeliness may not be better than enumeration – Coverage still needs to be assessed Does the register cover all the entities that the census has to cover? (divergence in purposes) – Not all variables exist in administrative data – Almost always, requires matching of multiple sources -> new source of potential errors 3/4/2013 © John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber 2013, all rights reserved 11

12. Privacy In Netherland’s case, Statistics Netherlands claimed higher acceptance for the use of administrative records than willingness to provide survey response In the US, some evidence suggests an increase in concerns about privacy (Singer, Bates, van Hoewyk, 2011; Gates, 2011) 3/4/2013 © John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber 2013, all rights reserved 12

13. Ongoing Work for 2020 Census Based on Vitrano & Chapin (2012)Vitrano & Chapin (2012 First Census where administrative records are being considered to replace or supplement respondent data 2010 Census Match Study Or the “Virtual Census 2010” – same methods as in the Dutch Virtual Census – Compare coverage of addresses – Compare coverage of persons – Compare characteristics of persons Better Census coverage measurement – Replace capture-recapture with multi-source measurement 3/4/2013 © John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber 2013, all rights reserved 13

14. Ongoing Work for 2020 Census Alternate sources, including commercial sources Better non-response follow-up (NRFU) to reduce cost (most expensive part of the operation Use of administrative records to improve alternate response methods (internet) Improving the address frame (see Session 7) 3/4/2013 © John M. Abowd and Lars Vilhuber 2013, all rights reserved 14