1. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 EMEP Case study: Assessment of HM pollution levels with fine spatial resolution in Belarus, Poland and UK Ilia Ilyin, Olga Rozovskaya, Oleg Travnikov Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

2. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Country-scale pollution assessment Case studies of HM pollution in selected EMEP countries Approach: Evaluation of pollution levels in a country with fine spatial resolution involving variety of national data Requirements: Detailed emissions data (fine resolution, source categories, LPS) Additional measurements from national monitoring networks Participation of national experts in joint analysis of the results Countries involved: CountryCzech RepCroatiaNetherlandsBelarusPolandU.K. Statuscomplete in progress Croatia Netherlands Czech Republic Belarus

3. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Case study for Belarus (Pb, 2012) Purpose:  Investigate changes in the model performance due to transfer from coarse to fine resolution  Provide the country with data on lead pollution levels with fine spatial resolution ng/m 3 - obs. sites 50x50 km 2 Pb in air, 2012 The model reasonably well reproduces Pb pollution in the EMEP region, keeping in mind existing uncertainties (EMEP/MSC-E status report 2014) ~ 40 stations EMEP domain Factor of 2 Factor of 3 Calculation of boundary concentrations for country-scale modelling domain Official EMEP emission data used

4. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 National data 10x10 km 2 EMEP emission (CEIP) 50x50 km 2 National emissions: High-resolution totals Gridded sector data Large Point Sources Total in Belarus: 68 t (2012) Total in Belarus: 8.3 t This value used in calculations Emission data involved in the study kg/km 2 /y

5. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 BY urban stations (national experts) Berezinskiy reserve (national experts) EMEP station (CCC) PL stations (AirBase) Monitoring data (conc. in air)  1 EMEP station in Poland (Diabla Gora, PL5)  1 background site (Berezinsky Reserve, Belarus)  5 background urban sites in Poland (EU AirBase data)  19 urban stations (Belarus) Berezinskiy Reserve (Belarus) Monitoring data in modelling domain (Pb, 2012)

6. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Pollution levels with fine (10x10 km 2 ) resolution Source-receptor relationships for the country and its regions Pollution from particular emission sectors Contamination from particular LPS Pollution of cities Poland 52% Slovakia 3% Remaining 22% Belarus 6% Germany 3% Italy 3% Ukraine 11% Model output for Belarus with fine spatial resolution

7. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Concentrations in air (Pb, 2012) Diabla Gora (EMEP site,PL5) Berezinskiy Reserve (Belarus) Urban sites, Poland Analysis of simulated pollution levels in the modelling domain (10x10 km 2 ) Factor of 2 Factor of 3

8. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 EMEP station (Belarus) Berezinskiy Reserve – reference station for further analysis Seasonal variations of modelled and observed air concentrations

9. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Pb air conc. in 2012 (EMEP data) Uncertainties of monitoring data  Air conc. in ‘Berezinskiy Reserve‘ are comparable with those in other parts of the EMEP region Data Quality Objectives for HM analytical methods: ±15-25% from expected (theoretical) value  Monitoring uncertainty of ‘Berezinskiy Reserve’ is unknown  Participation of national laboratory in intercomparison of analytical methods coordinated by CCC is appreciated Three sources of uncertainties: 1) Measurements 2) Model 3) Emission data Analysis of uncertainties

10. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Intrinsic model uncertainty is ±30-40% for concentrations and deposition Sensitivity coefficient Intrinsic model uncertainty (without effect of emission) Reference: Travnikov O. and I.Ilyin [2005], EMEP/MSC-E Report 6/2005 Uncertainty of the model

11. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Emission in Belarus: national (8.3 t/y ) Average Pb emission flux Observed urban Pb concentrations  Observed air conc. in BY and other countries are comparable  Emission fluxes differ markedly Pb emissions in 2012 Pb emissions in 2012 and urban obs. sites kg/km 2 /y Uncertainties of the emission data

12. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Non-Industrial CombustionIndustry Road transportOther Belarus (national data) 19% 75% 4% 2% 6% 21% 30% 43% 6% 66% 25% 3% Latvia Poland Emission sectors in Belarus and neighbouring countries (Pb, 2012)

13. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Belarus: Data from national experts Other countries: CEIP Pb emission fluxes in 2012 in the EMEP region Road Transport Non-Industrial Combustion Pb emissions from ‘Road Transport’ and ‘Non-industrial combustion’ sectors

14. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Modelled Observed Total value provided by national experts Bias,%-66 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Obs. Base Case Air concentrations, ng/m 3 Model runEmission in BY, tSpatial distribution in BY Base-case8.310x10 km 2 (as in national data) Sensitivity study of modelled air concentrations at ‘Berezinskiy Reserve’ to emission

15. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Scenario 1  Emission data for Belarus (68 t/y) is used  Spatial distribution of emissions: as in the national data in Belarus

16. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Model runEmission in BY, tSpatial distribution in BY Base-case8.310x10 km 2 (as in national data) Scenario #16810x10 km 2 (as in national data) Modelled Observed The same as officially reported value for 2012 significant bias still remains Bias,%-66-56 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Obs. Base Case Scenario #1 Air concentrations, ng/m 3 Sensitivity study of modelled air concentrations at ‘Berezinskiy Reserve’ to emission

17. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Scenario 2 Purpose: Fitting of modelled and observed air concentrations at station ‘Berezinskiy Reserve’ The aim is NOT to revise national emission data! Approach:  Emissions in sectors ‘Non-Industrial Combustion’ and ‘Road Transport’ are increased proportional to population density. Spatial distribution of emissions changed.  The change of emissions took place only in Belarus, Ukraine and Russia  Total emission in Belarus changed from 8.3 to 137 t/y Per capita Pb emission in 2012 in sectors ‘Non-Industrial Combustion’ and ‘Road Transport’ 0 1 2 3 4 Poland Slovakia Latvia Lithuania Hungary Czech Rep. Germany EMEP mean Ukraine Belarus Russia Pb emission, t per million of people Non-industrial Combustion Road Transport

18. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 kg/km 2 /y BY PL UA LT LV RU BY PL UA LT LV RU National emissions (8.3 t) (Base-case run) Scenario emissions (137 t) Spatial distribution of national and scenario emissions (Pb, 10x10 km 2 )

19. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Modelled Observed Bias,%-66-56 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Obs. Base Case Scenario #1Scenario #2 Air concentrations, ng/m 3 Sensitivity study of modelled air concentrations at ‘Berezinskiy Reserve’ to emission Model runEmission in BY, tSpatial distribution in BY Base-case8.310x10 km 2 (as in national data) Scenario #16810x10 km 2 (as in national data)

20. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Model runEmission in BY, tSpatial distribution in BY Base-case8.310x10 km 2 (as in national data) Scenario #16810x10 km 2 (as in national data) Scenario #213710x10 km 2 (Scenario) Bias,%-66-56 Modelled Observed 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 Obs. Base Case Scenario #1Scenario #2 Air concentrations, ng/m 3 Sensitivity study of modelled air concentrations at ‘Berezinskiy Reserve’ to emission  Joint efforts of the EMEP Centres, and national experts and TFEIP are needed for further analysis of emission data in EECCA countries

21. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Air concentration of lead in 2012 Base-Case Scenario #2 Emissions assumed in Scenario #2 led to significant increase of calculated pollution levels in Belarus Model output for Belarus with fine spatial resolution: base-case vs. scenario #2

22. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016  Analysis of the available national emission data shows that Pb emissions in Belarus and in neighbouring EECCA countries from sectors ‘Non-Industrial Combustion’ and ‘Road Transport’ are likely underestimated. Therefore, calculated lead pollution levels in Belarus may be underpredicted.  Model sensitivity study demonstrates that the modelled Pb pollution levels are sensitive not only to emission total values in countries but also to their spatial distribution.  Assessment of pollution level assessment for Belarus with fine spatial resolution was done. The country was provided with detailed country-specific information with fine (10x10 km 2 ) resolution.  The suggested emission scenario led to improvement of modelling results compared to observed levels. However, joint efforts of the EMEP Centres, national experts and TFEIP are needed for further analysis of emission data in the EECCA countries. Conclusions and recommendations

23. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016  Similar case studies of pollution level assessment in Belarus could be carried out for other pollutants (e.g., for particulate matter). It could be useful to better understand peculiarities of atmospheric pollution in Belarus.  Pollution levels in Belarus are strongly affected by emission sources in neighbouring countries. To better understand origin of pollution in Belarus, similar studies in other neighbouring countries (PL, UA, RU) would be helpful.  Evaluation of quality of measurement data in Belarus under supervision of CCC is appreciated. Conclusions and recommendations (cont.)

24. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Available data: - Power stations - Production of coke - Copper smelting - Production of cement Point-source emissions of Cd (provided by Poland) Area sources (to be derived from EMEP data) Monitoring data - EMEP data - AirBase Purpose: Evaluate Cd pollution levels in Poland with fine spatial resolution (10x10 km 2 ) Pollution assessment for Poland (Cd) (in progress) Emissions of Cd from point sources in 2012, kg/y Modelling under preparation Cd total deposition from point sources

25. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Simulate Pb pollution levels with fine spatial resolution (10x10 km) Compare modelling results of MSC-E and national FRAME model Evaluate a role of wind re-suspension in HM levels in the U.K. Main purposes: National data: Emissions (1x1 km) - Source categories - Point sources Monitoring data - Air concentrations (32 sites) - Wet deposition (8 sites) Concentrations in soil Pb total deposition in 2012 (10x10 km 2 ) Simulation of HM levels over the U.K. (Centre of Ecology and Hydrology) with fine spatial resolution (preliminary results) More details: in the next presentation by Massimo Vienno

26. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Thank you for attention!

27. 17 th TFMM Meeting, 17-20 May, 2016 Uncertainties of the emission data Pb emission flux Pb total emissions in 2012 kg/km 2 /y