2. Never waste a good crisis: The European Bank for Reconstruction & Development and neoliberal transition Stuart Shields University of Manchester

3. How I got here …Transition to Transition Initiative

4. Why the EBRD? Absence of RDBs in global governance literature. Absence of EBRD in PCT literature. Largest single investor in PCT. Latest stage of neoliberalisation since crisis. De- coupling of democracy from capitalism. Parallelism, overlapping forms of governance. Many of the states discussed this morning – C.Asia, SEMED, MENA, Cyprus?

5. The ‘international’ and transition Instructions on the ‘techniques’ of reform. simultaneity of political/economic transition & state building. National processes of elite bargaining & institution building. Methodological nationalism of ‘transitology’. EU democratization and conditionality. Replicated in SEMED, MENA?

6. Intensification of neoliberal restructuring of European social relations. Contradicts ESM. Crisis and reform relation? Social use of crisis? Political economy of transition – context, embeddedness, state, scale, neoliberalisation. Up and down scaling of governance – EBRD/RDBs. Spatial extent of EBRD – C.Asia, MENA? Structural change

7. Three waves of neoliberalisation Progress in Transition reports, benchmarking, ranking, annual reports: laws & regulation, indicators of regulatory achievement. 1. ‘off the peg’ Washington Consensus -> transition recession. 2. ‘Getting the institutions right -> competitiveness crisis of Europeanisation. 3. Promotion of competitivenes -> financial crisis.

8. First wave of neoliberalisation 1) political change; 2) private sector development; & 3) pan-European institution linking ‘east’ & ‘west’. Building the market: privatisation, liberalisation, deregulation but also … The purpose of the Bank shall be to foster the transition towards open-market economies and to promote private and entrepreneurial initiative in the Central and Eastern European countries committed to and applying the principles of multiparty democracy, pluralism and market economies (EBRD, 1990: art. 1).

9. Second wave of neoliberalisation First wave – misguided signposts? ‘Complete’ transition. the next period of the transition must be led by high-quality investment... with the right kind of institutions, leadership and partnership,the private markets in these countries can deliver the quality investment which is necessary for successful economic growth (EBRD, 1995: 8). Open up vested interests, oligarchics, & institutional practices. But key sectors? Coal, ship building, steel industry.

10. Third wave of neoliberalisation Competitiveness agenda, deep marketisation, better entrepreneurs, Labour market reform, ‘flexible’ labour force. primary responsibility … lies with the countries of the region themselves, and they are urged to foster investment, entrepreneurial and market skills and build popular support for them, while the [IFIs] and the international community will play a crucial supporting role (EBRD 1999).

11. The EBRD & the current “crisis” I Neoliberalism renewed? Never waste a good crisis “Most countries are demonstrating continuing commitment to market reforms and democratic processes. A crisis can lead to reversals, but can also create new opportunities in healthier and stronger systems. The EBRD is committed to being the catalyst in this process” (EBRD, 2008: 21). Coordination, parallelism across other institutions. “complacency would threaten not only recovery, but also long-term economic growth. There can be no return to the region’s pre-crisis dynamism without new reform” (EBRD, 2010: iv).

12. The EBRD & the current “crisis” II Vienna Initiative 2009 & 2011. “minimise systemic risks” in PCT and ‘home countries’. domestic production and finance. emergency response to crisis – now permanent. Beyond ECE? – Pressure on EU, exemplar, labour costs pressure, Warsaw on the Nile, future for EU, SEMED? 2011 Technical Assessment; 2012 Country Assessment;2013 Arab World Competitiveness Report EBRD is “well equipped. It can draw on its two decades of experience supporting often tumultuous transition processes in the post-Soviet bloc” (Gacek 2013).

13. The EBRD & the current “crisis” III Beyond ECE? Mirow: EBRD is “contributing to a wider, global project that is as applicable in Europe as the developing world”. Fourth wave of neoliberalisation? Working on, through, and around the state: “reforms will constitute... an enabling environment” (EBRD 2012: 30). Strategic intervention Increasingly authoritarian turn in wider European area - Gezi, Occupy, Spain and podemos, emergence of populist far right.

14. Conclusions? Absence of EBRD in mainstream & critical literature? Fourth wave of transition – internalising neoliberalisation, structural violence of reform, authoritarian turn in neoliberalism? Separation of democracy and capitalism. Disciplining mechanisms of RDBs. You may not be interested in the EBRD … but it is interested in you! The time for reform is always now … never waste a good crisis.