1. Marc Hamel and Julie Trépanier May 21, 2014 Canadian Statistical Demographic Database: A research project

2. May 21, 2014 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 2 Context  2016 Census Strategy Project (2011-2013) Traditional census is the only viable option for 2016 Pursue research and investigation into administrative data options  Examine the feasibility of building a virtual population register at Statistics Canada by using/linking multiple administrative data sources Micro level database Census spine information (name, address, date of birth, sex) Quality indicators

3. May 21, 2014 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 3 Potential Uses and Benefits  Support for the Census planning, non-response follow- up, processing, quality assessment  Support for coverage studies  Support for the Population Estimates Program  Person level frame for household surveys  Alternative to the traditional Census headcount

4. October, 2013 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 4 CRA = Canada Revenue Agency CIC= Citizenship and Immigration Canada

5. May 21, 2014 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 5 First 2011 CSDD prototype (2013-14)  The 1 st CSDD is the result of a series of matches between six input files. They are: the 2006 Census of Population collection database (Response database) an amalgamated file of individual Canadian income tax filers, created by merging information from 1984 to 2011 the final Canadian Birth Database, 1985 to 2008 the final Canadian Mortality Database, 1990 to 2009 the 2010 Indian Registry, and the Landed Immigrant Database, years 1980 to 2012

6. May 21, 2014 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 6 First 2011 CSDD prototype (2013-14)  The 1 st CSDD used the Social Domain Record Linkage Environment that is under development : To be on the CSDD, a record had to be present and matched deterministically on at least two databases Two exceptions: births and permanent immigrants in 2006 or later Some adjustments done a posteriori to compensate for expected coverage issues due to the strategy  Preliminary results were compared to: The 2011 Census results The 2011 postcensal estimates

7. May 21, 2014 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 7 First 2011 CSDD prototype (2013-14)  Main findings: Encouraging results at the national level More issues as we look at lower geographical levels  E.g., significant differences in selected population centers with a high presence of non-residential areas Underestimation of newborns, ages 12 to 17 Overestimation of ages 25-65, 90+

8. May 21, 2014 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 8 Second 2011 prototype (2014-15)  Use better sources of residential addresses (e.g., IDENT file from Canada Revenue Agency)  Use preliminary birth files and Canada Child Tax Benefit files to improve coverage of children  Use preliminary death files to improve coverage of the older age groups  Start creating an activity indicator that could help determining if an individual is likely to have emigrated/died

9. May 21, 2014 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 9 Second 2011 prototype (2014-15)  Clean input files  Investigate using an alternative record linkage methodology and system as the SDRLE is going into a redesign  Pursue new data sources that could provide in a subsequent prototype: better address information information about entries in and exits from the country

10. May 21, 2014 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 10 Project contacts For more information, please contact: Marc Hamel Director General Census Management Office Julie Trépanier Director Administrative Data Division 1-613-951-24951-613-951-9437 Marc.Hamel@statcan.gc.ca Julie.Trepanier@statcan.gc.ca