1. Research planning at the RTF and Research check-ins & sunset extensions: Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing of Ducted Heat Pumps Ductless Heat pumps for Forced-Air-Furnace Homes IR-sensing Advanced Power Strips for Home Entertainment

2. Research Planning at the RTF: Review of Planning and Provisional Categories Regional Technical Forum Josh Rushton March 15, 2016

3. Objectives Today, we are reviewing RTF’s role in informing research plans Procedures and work products RTF uses to carry out its role 3

4. Background RTF does not have research budget Need to work with Research Sponsors – Sponsors have their own research priorities – Sponsors need autonomy in planning research Experiences with CC&S, DHP for FAF, and SIS highlighted need for clearly defined roles 4

5. Yes Category Proven (revisit at sunset) 3 Stakeholder interested in the measure? Existing data sufficient for Proven? Small Saver category appropriate? Well-defined measure Measure workbook includes technical specs, eligibility criteria, identifiers, etc. Could be new measure or existing measure (at sunset) Measure may change before getting to Proven Appropriate funded research identified Deactivate the measure (remove from RTF work flow) Category Planning; Requires RTF Research Strategy (revisit at sunset) Category Provisional; Requires RTF Research Plan (revisit at sunset) Category Small Saver (revisit at sunset) No Yes No Yes

6. Research Planning Roles RTF roles: – Decide whether existing research suffices for Proven category – Describe knowledge gaps that must be filled before a measure can be Proven – Track measures in need of research to help research sponsors prioritize funding – Provide technical expertise to assist research sponsors in developing research plans – Help research sponsors determine if a research approach is likely to yield proven-worthy results Not RTF roles: – Fund research (RTF does not have research budget) – Make final decisions about research methods Research Sponsor roles: – Prioritize measures they choose to support – Plan actual research (funding levels, methods, timing) 6

7. Category Planning 7

8. What is an RTF Research Strategy? Each RTF Planning measure is attached to an RTF Research Strategy, which… Describes critical research objectives – What does the RTF need for the measure to be proven? – Anything researchers should pay special attention to? Outlines straw-man approach to data collection and analysis – Demonstrates one feasible research path – Research Sponsors develop final Research Plan Sponsors can work with RTF staff to ensure plan addresses RTF needs RTF reviews final Research Plan later (at Planning  Provisional transition) – May call out approaches that probably wouldn’t suffice (optional) Provides a rough cost estimate (based on straw-man approach) Should be brief, so critical items don’t get lost in a sea of helpful suggestions 8 – Planning x x Most importantly

9. Criteria for Planning Category What does it mean for the RTF to approve (grant Active status to) a Planning measure? Stakeholder interest justifies RTF maintaining the measure – Keep on research radar – Check in at sunset, update savings and cost as needed RTF accepts savings and cost estimates (standards not stringent) – Guidelines only requires “Sound engineering and statistical analyses” for Planning estimates – Lack of UES rigor trades-off against greater evaluation burden At evaluation, “Savings are estimated by conducting one or more studies…” Same evaluation treatment as Small Savers and non-RTF measures RTF accepts the Research Strategy – Stated research objectives convey what is needed for Proven – Size of research lift estimated about right 9 – Planning

10. Maintaining Planning Measures Maintenance not much of a burden for individual measures – Could become a problem if we accumulated too many Research tracking – Planning measures reviewed w/ Research Sponsors every 3-6 months Any measures sponsors definitely plan to pick up? How do other Planning measures rank in priorities? – Planning measures tracked on PAC dashboard PAC consists of RTF funders, often same organizations as research sponsors May want to explore funding options for particularly important orphans – RTF webpage lists all measures by Category, Status, Sunset, etc. RTF check-in at sunset (typical sunset period ≈3 years) – Stakeholders still interested? – Update savings and cost if needed – Any new research? (Lack of progress doesn’t trigger deactivation) – Still agree with research strategy? Can move to Provisional at any time if funder picks up research 10 – Planning

11. Category Provisional 11

12. What is an RTF Research Plan? Each RTF Provisional measure is attached to an RTF Research Plan, which… Is based on planned or on-going research funded by an identified research sponsor – Sponsor’s research plan often a separate document from RTF Research Plan – RTF Research Plan may point to sponsor’s plan for data collection and analysis details Focuses on how specific expected research products will be used to inform RTF measures – Clearly describes limitations with respect to RTF measure needs Provides enough detail for RTF to make informed judgments on two questions: – Is the research likely to meet some or all of the research objectives needed for Proven? – Is the planned research sufficient for estimating savings during Provisional sunset period? 12 – Provisional

13. RTF Criteria for Provisional What does it mean for RTF to approve (grant Active status to) a Provisional measure? Stakeholder interest – Sponsored research usually a pretty good indicator! Research sponsor has committed funds to specific research tasks described in the RTF Research Plan – Doesn’t guarantee research will take place as planned RTF accepts savings and cost estimates (standards not stringent) – Guidelines only require “Sound engineering and statistical analyses” for Provisional UES values – Lack of UES rigor trades-off against research (and maybe evaluation) burden Planned research sufficient for evaluating savings while measure remains Provisional If research results not available, same evaluation requirements as Planning, Small Saver, etc. – Don’t necessarily expect major updates at Planning  Provisional transition RTF accepts the RTF Research Plan – Likely to meet some or all of the research objectives needed for Proven – Planned research sufficient for evaluating savings through Provisional period 13 – Provisional

14. Maintaining Provisional Measures Maintenance not much of a burden for individual measures. – Little risk of accumulating too many Provisional measures (because of sponsored research requirement) Research tracking – CAT/Staff checks in with sponsor during research period (no formal mechanisms other than sunset date) – Also tracked through Research Sponsors meetings, PAC dashboard and RTF website 14 – Provisional

15. Cheat Sheet: Planning vs Provisional Planning Sponsors not yet identified (or specific, funded research plan not yet written) RTF develops a Research Strategy RTF approval means RTF: Agrees with research goals Believes proposed method of data collection and analysis provides a reasonable path forward Acknowledges that sponsors might alter research design Evaluation: Treated as Other UES (i.e. RTF UES estimate not used) Provisional Sponsors identified (a specific, funded research plan has been written) RTF develops an RTF Research Plan RTF approval means RTF: Agrees RTF Research Plan meets some or all of the research goals Agrees Plan captures potential limitations for advancing measure Anticipates research results will be sufficient for evaluating savings Evaluation: Evaluated savings to be based on research results, if available (or treated as Other UES) 15

16. Research Check-ins & Sunset Extensions Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing of Ducted Heat Pumps Ductless Heat pumps for Forced-Air-Furnace Homes IR-sensing Advanced Power Strips for Home Entertainment Regional Technical Forum Josh Rushton March 15, 2016

17. Overview Today, we are checking in with the RTF on the status of research related to three measures: – Planning UES: Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing (Check-in only) Baseline CC&S also affects all HP-related measures (Wx, HP upgrades, NC homes) – Planning UES: Ductless Heat pumps for FAF Homes (Sunset extension) – Provisional UES: IR-Sensing APS for Home Entertainment applications CC&S and DHP for FAF were the first Planning measures under the new approach to research roles – Check-in triggered by note attached to March, 2015, decisions on these measures: The intention of the 1-year sunset date is to update the RTF on the status of funding discussions. It is not intended to be a trigger for revisiting the savings estimate or used for forcing research funding.” – Now have ways of tracking unfunded research other than short sunset periods (see previous presentation) – Sunset not until next month but we happen to have time on this month’s agenda 17

18. Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing (CC&S) 18 – CC&S

19. Measure background CC&S measures apply to both single-family and manufactured homes – CC&S for SF (Existing and New-Construction) CC&S for SF (Existing and New-Construction) Planning Category, Active Status – CC&S for MH (Existing and New-Construction) CC&S for MH (Existing and New-Construction) Planning Category, Active Status Measure specifications describe practices and standards for ducted air-source heat pumps – Indoor airflow (duct/air handler capacity) – Control settings (electric resistance shut-out) – Heat pump sizing – See Additional Slides for details 19 – CC&S

20. Research Planning Background December, 2014: RTF approved measure definition, savings, life, and cost – Provisional category – Under Review status (2-month sunset to finalize the Research Plan) March, 2015: CAT/Staff presented new take on RTF’s role in research planning process (see previous presentation). Based on new approach… – RTF accepted a research strategy for CC&Sresearch strategy – Set category to Planning – Set status to Active (1-year sunset period to check in on research funding) – Experiences with CC&S and DHP for FAF helped motivate the new approach Initially, CC&S measure was specific to SF homes. Later, RTF separated SF and MH measures and coordinated sunset dates with related measures – CC&S for SF: Sunset is November, 2018 (same as other SF HP measures) – CC&S for MH: Sunset is August, 2018 (same as other MH HVAC measures) – Wx and other HP-related measures also Planning due to uncertainty around baseline CC&S practices 20 – CC&S

21. CC&S Research Strategy Research Objective: Estimate baseline and efficient-case heat pump installation practices in the Region as they relate to indoor airflow, control logic, and heat pump sizing Straw-man data collection – Field Audits: 120 baseline + 120 efficient-case – House and duct audit, compressor and resistance heat controls, heat pump capacity, indoor airflow – Utility Bills (post-only): 240 (for field audit sites) Straw-man analysis approach – Use field data to develop simulation modeling inputs to represent baseline and efficient-case practices related to indoor airflow, control logic, and heat pump sizing – Use billing data as a rough check on simulation output; adjust input parameters if justified Estimated Cost Range: ( $2million) 21 – CC&S

22. Update on Funding Discussions Potential sponsors consider this research a high priority due to number of impacted measures Potential sponsors anticipate breaking effort into two phases: 1.Estimate baseline CC&S practices. Intended outcomes are: Help advance Wx measures for homes with existing heat pumps Estimate potential value of CC&S measure 2.Estimate efficient-case CC&S practices Help advance efficient CC&S measures Staff/CAT anticipate discussing specifics with research sponsors in the coming months Discussion? (No decision required at this time) 22 – CC&S

23. Ductless Heat Pumps for FAF homes (DHP for FAF) 23 – DHP for FAF

24. Measure background DHP for FAF applies to both single-family and manufactured homes Ductless Heat Pump for Forced Air Furnace (SF, MH) Existing buildings only Planning Category, Active Status Measure: Install DHP (≥ 9.5 HSPF, ≥ 3/4 tons) in main living area of home with existing electric- resistance forced air furnace – Details in presentation to RTF January, 2015January, 2015 24 – DHP for FAF

25. Thermostat Control Strategy FAF Control DHP Control Current measure definition does not specify control strategy Whatever happens, happens Research strategy reflects this Sponsors could choose to prove out a different measure with UES- able control instructions instead Recommend checking in with staff/CAT/subcommittee first 25 – DHP for FAF

26. Research Planning Background 26 – DHP for FAF January, 2015: RTF approved measure definition, savings, life, and cost – Provisional category – Under Review status (2-month sunset to finalize the Research Plan) March, 2015: RTF approved measure under new research planning process – Planning category (with new Research Strategy) – Active status (1-year sunset period) – At decision time, Research Strategy was only a sketch on a slide – Experiences with CC&S and DHP for FAF helped motivate the new approach July, 2015: CAT created stand-alone Research Strategy document, consistent with other measuresResearch Strategy document – No changes in substance, no RTF decision

27. Research Strategy Research Objectives – Estimate mix of DHP and electric-resistance heat delivered under varying control strategies, outside temperatures, house heat loss rates, and other factors – Estimate impact supplemental fuel usage has on measure savings Straw-man approach: Data Collection – Utility Billing Data, pre and post: 1,200 sites – Phone Survey: 1,000 sites (supplemental fuel use, control strategy, house size, etc.) – Field Metering Study: 40 sites; similar to 2012 study (additional slides) but focused in heating zones 2 and 3 Straw-man approach: Analysis – Field data to inform calibrated SEEM models (for homes with a solid heat signature) – Billing Analysis: Pre/post VBDD for each house Estimate impact of supplemental fuels: Combine with phone survey data, similar to DHP-zonal analysis: compare billing kWh pre and post for homes with and without supplemental fuels Also use bills for QC check on final UES values – Use Phone Survey results to establish a population-weighted control strategy mix; same for other critical variables Estimated Cost Range: ( $2million) 27 – DHP for FAF

28. Update on Funding Discussions Potential sponsors consider this research a medium-to-high priority Some have indicated interest in coordinating research with others to share burden Some effort underway to work out approach to coordinating billing analysis across utilities Some utilities have expressed possible interested in coordinating on the field research (no specific plans so far) UCONS has gathered pre/post data on distribution of air temperatures for sample of DHP for FAF installations – 20 MHs and 4 SF homes in NW Washington – MH sample targeted “for their size, relative openness of floor plan, and noted deficiency of duct design/integrity” – System run time (for FAF and for DHP) estimated based on air temperature data – CAT doesn’t think this data alone can reliably estimate the average system mix that would prevail in future programs or the effect of supplemental fuels (but it may contribute to final estimates depending on how funded research plan works) 28 – DHP for FAF

29. Proposed Motion “I _________ move that the RTF extends the sunset date for the Ductless Heat Pump for Forced Air Furnace (SF and MH) UES measure to March 31, 2018.” Note: This motion does not affect the measure Category (Planning) or the measure Status (Active). 29 – DHP for FAF

30. IR-Sensing Advanced Power Strips 30 – IR-Sensing APS

31. Overview IR-sensing Advanced Power Strips measure summary: – Applies to residential home entertainment settings – Category is Provisional – Status is Active – Sunset is August, 2016 – UES = 216 kWh; 7 th Plan potential savings = 157 aMW RTF Research Plan does not reflect research change of plans RTF Research Plan – For details, see presentation from March 4 R&E subcommittee meetingMarch 4 R&E subcommittee meeting – R&E: Alternate research may or may not yield proven-worthy estimates CAT Recommendation: – Change Status to Under Review, – Keep August, 2016 sunset date – CAT/Staff to investigate research possibilities 31 – IR-Sensing APS

32. “I _________ move that for the UES measure IR- Sensing Advanced Power Strips, the RTF… Change status from Active to Under Review; Keep the sunset date set to August 31, 2016; Keep the measure category set to Provisional.” 32 – IR-Sensing APS Proposed Motion

33. Additional Slides 33 – Additional Slides

34. CC&S Measure Specifications Heat pump shall be installed in compliance with the RTF Heat Pump Commissioning Controls and Sizing specification (summary below; see link for full specs)link – Sizing: Balance point 30°F or lower – Controls: Disallow resistance heat when outdoor temperature is above 35°F – Commissioning Airflow: ≥325 CFM per ton of nominal heating capacity Indoor Coil Delta-T: Per table in specs Static Pressure: External static pressure cannot exceed 0.8 inches of water Measure applies to existing manufactured homes and new or existing single family homes receiving a new central air source heat pump system. Applies to systems with single-speed and two-speed compressors only. Does not apply to ductless heat pumps or variable speed central systems. 34 – Additional Slides CC&S

35. 35 – Additional Slides DHP for FAF

36. 36 – Additional Slides DHP for FAF

37. 2012 DHP for FAF Study* Overview – 1-year monitoring of 10 MH and 10 SF houses with FAF/DHP (Heating Zone 1) – Energy logging: DHP, FAF, DHW, and whole-house – House and duct audit; pre/post billing analysis – Participating sites screened to ensure clear heating signature Only one had significant wood use Another had minor amounts of wood use. Findings – Savings estimates – Three distinct control strategies Identified Mostly DHP Mostly FAF Mix – Savings likely come from a combination of: Increased efficiency of DHP over FAF Reduced use of the duct system Zoning (lower average interior temperature) *Baylon, David, B. Davis, K. Geraghty, L. Gilman. “Ductless Heat Pump Engineering Analysis: Single-Family and Manufactured Homes with Electric Forced-Air Furnaces.” Prepared by Ecotope for BPA. December 2012.Baylon, David, B. Davis, K. Geraghty, L. Gilman. “Ductless Heat Pump Engineering Analysis: Single-Family and Manufactured Homes with Electric Forced-Air Furnaces.” Prepared by Ecotope for BPA. December 2012. House Type Savings, Heating Consumption (kWh/yr) Sub-metered Savings Results Billing Savings Results (Pre Total – Post Total) MeanSDMeanSD MH6105251160222833 SF4715222452142541 Total5373240556182652 37 – Additional Slides DHP for FAF