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A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China two concepts: growth and development two concepts: growth and development harmonious society 和.

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Presentation on theme: "A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China two concepts: growth and development two concepts: growth and development harmonious society 和."— Presentation transcript:

1 A cost-benefit analysis for the economic growth in China two concepts: growth and development two concepts: growth and development harmonious society 和 harmonious society 和 Chinese economic growth is in traditional way: labor-intensive industry, resource-intensive industry, at the expense of low labor treatment and environmental degradation. Chinese economic growth is in traditional way: labor-intensive industry, resource-intensive industry, at the expense of low labor treatment and environmental degradation. ecological deterioration and fundamental social change. ecological deterioration and fundamental social change.

2 In 2003, China accounted for 4% of the world ’ s total GDP, but its consumption of crude oil, ironstone, steel, alumina and cement, was 31%,27%, 25% and 40% of the world totals respectively. In 2003, China accounted for 4% of the world ’ s total GDP, but its consumption of crude oil, ironstone, steel, alumina and cement, was 31%,27%, 25% and 40% of the world totals respectively. China: world manufacture workshop. everywhere is construction site. its strong demand partly pushes up the price soaring of the raw materials China: world manufacture workshop. everywhere is construction site. its strong demand partly pushes up the price soaring of the raw materials By-product: high-level pollution By-product: high-level pollution

3 For instance, China ’ s solid waste per unit industrial output value is ten times higher than that of developed countries. For instance, China ’ s solid waste per unit industrial output value is ten times higher than that of developed countries. If you go out Beijing and take four hours train to Shanxi province, that is a different scene. haze, acid rain, infertile, drought, dust and rubbish dump. the province lives on coal selling. If you go out Beijing and take four hours train to Shanxi province, that is a different scene. haze, acid rain, infertile, drought, dust and rubbish dump. the province lives on coal selling. Will China ’ s high economic growth be sustainable? Will China ’ s high economic growth be sustainable? Benefits: economic development Benefits: economic development Costs: environmental and social costs Costs: environmental and social costs natural resources, environmental quality and social dimension. natural resources, environmental quality and social dimension. the relationship between economy, environment, and society in China. the relationship between economy, environment, and society in China.

4 The methodology The methodology cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for the assessment of environment and regional sustainable development. cost-benefit analysis (CBA) for the assessment of environment and regional sustainable development. three accounts: environmental accounts (environmental quality), the economic accounts, (human welfare) and the social accounts (human relationship). three accounts: environmental accounts (environmental quality), the economic accounts, (human welfare) and the social accounts (human relationship). the selection of sub-accounts or components is based upon three considerations. the selection of sub-accounts or components is based upon three considerations. The formula of the CBA framework The formula of the CBA framework NPP and NPR NPP and NPR the greater their negative values are, the less sustainable the economic growth. the greater their negative values are, the less sustainable the economic growth.

5 The data The data the economic account (human welfare) the economic account (human welfare) Personal expenditure and income distribution index (income gap is widening in China, Gini coefficient is growing rapidly, from 0.25 in 1980 to 0.47 in 2004, near the level of Latin America. However, before 1978, it is 0.16. it is a major social concern) Personal expenditure and income distribution index (income gap is widening in China, Gini coefficient is growing rapidly, from 0.25 in 1980 to 0.47 in 2004, near the level of Latin America. However, before 1978, it is 0.16. it is a major social concern) Consumer durables and public infrastructure (how to calculate the service? depreciation rate and interest rate) Consumer durables and public infrastructure (how to calculate the service? depreciation rate and interest rate)

6 cost of commutation: more than one hour in single way is very common in Beijing cost of commutation: more than one hour in single way is very common in Beijing net capital investment: NCG net capital investment: NCG balance of payment: net lending or borrowing. balance of payment: net lending or borrowing. ecological account ecological account the loss of human health caused by ecological problems. the loss of human health caused by ecological problems. cost of household pollution control: air and water filters cost of household pollution control: air and water filters cost of environmental pollution control and remediation: the monetary loss of the physical damage from illness. cost of environmental pollution control and remediation: the monetary loss of the physical damage from illness. cost of air pollution cost of air pollution cost of water pollution cost of water pollution

7 cost of noise pollution cost of noise pollution cost of nonrenewable resources depletion cost of nonrenewable resources depletion cost of forest depletion cost of forest depletion depletion of wetlands and farmlands depletion of wetlands and farmlands cost of the long-term environmental damages. cost of the long-term environmental damages. social account social account value of household work and volunteer work value of household work and volunteer work defensive expenditures: medical care, measures against crimes. defensive expenditures: medical care, measures against crimes. cost of family breakdown: divorce cost of family breakdown: divorce cost of unemployment cost of unemployment change of leisure time change of leisure time

8 The results The results See table 3 See table 3 the NPR has been in an increasing trend, though slowly, over the years. the NPR has been in an increasing trend, though slowly, over the years. See Figure 2 See Figure 2 Cost of economic account: it had been increased over years and then leveled off at -20 to -23 after 1994. the enlarged inequality. Cost of economic account: it had been increased over years and then leveled off at -20 to -23 after 1994. the enlarged inequality. Cost of ecological account: it has decreased to a level of -22 to -24 before 1994. the little drop of ecological cost recently was temporary and would possibly increase Cost of ecological account: it has decreased to a level of -22 to -24 before 1994. the little drop of ecological cost recently was temporary and would possibly increase Cost of social account: Cost of social account: Benefits of the three accounts: the benefits of economic growth has steadily increased. Benefits of the three accounts: the benefits of economic growth has steadily increased.

9 Change of the net proceeds rate Change of the net proceeds rate See figure 4 See figure 4 The adjustment phase(1980-1987) The adjustment phase(1980-1987) The steady increasing phase(1988-1998) The steady increasing phase(1988-1998) The fluctuation phase (after 1999) The fluctuation phase (after 1999) to reform its industrial structure, a smooth urbanization and an effective control of its environmental pollution. to reform its industrial structure, a smooth urbanization and an effective control of its environmental pollution.

10 Conclusion Conclusion CBA framework CBA framework sustainable development sustainable development Three accounts: economy, ecology and society. Three accounts: economy, ecology and society. Large bubble of China ’ s economic growth Large bubble of China ’ s economic growth increasing growth, but declining welfare increasing growth, but declining welfare The cost resulted from issues of environmental and natural resources offset half of the total benefits of economic growth. The cost resulted from issues of environmental and natural resources offset half of the total benefits of economic growth.


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