1. CfWI produces quality intelligence to inform better workforce planning, that improves people’s lives Showcasing the latest in workforce modelling

2. Agenda 1.Introduction Dr Graham Willis, Analysis & Modelling Lead, CfWI 2.Workforce modelling tool Sarah Copley, Head of Workforce Transformation, NHS West Midlands 3.Whole systems modelling Trish Knight, Deputy Director of Workforce Development, East Midlands SHA 4.Issues and challenges for the future

3. Sarah Copley NHS West Midlands Sarah.Copley@westmidlands.nhs.uk Workforce Modelling Tool

4. Strategic Context Numerous challenges in the system with significant implications for workforce acknowledging: Organisations have very different capabilities to model the impacts of these changes There is significant need for clinical input to identify the future workforce needed to deliver services There is little consistency of approach in identifying workforce needs across the different sectors making it extremely difficult to develop an aggregate strategic view E.g. many of the changes in dementia services impact the same staff groups, and acknowledges that dementia is everyone’s business

5. Development History A framework for modelling in which will: Support the building of capacity and capability in planning the workforce and ensuring clinical decision making Link workforce, finance and activity planning Developed with and for Trusts/ PCTs Recognise the needs for scenario development Partnership with Deloitte and IBM There are numerous workforce scenarios possible when delivering services, and the tool will help you consider these across the entire workforce

6. Approaches to Modelling 1.Workforce Capacity Modelling 2.Demand Modelling Pathway changes: what happens if we restructure / change the activities that we undertake along a particular pathway? Service reconfiguration: what happens if we shift demand between existing services or introduce new services? Workforce reconfiguration: what happens if we change skill mix, competencies and make up of our workforce? Introduction of new roles: how will these impact the demand for other staff groups? Ultimately, this is a decision support not a decision making tool

7. Tool Functions Planning wizards Data uploads from ESR or other data sources Organisation wide capacity modelling over 1-25 years by: –Staff group –Area of work –Agenda for Change band Costed Workforce Demand modelling –Pathway –Staff group –Activity –Metric Aggregating workforce demand Demand: Capacity Gap Analysis Community facility

8. Workforce Capacity Modelling The capacity (future available workforce) is modelled as follows: 1.The size of the current workforce, taken from the Electronic Staff Record, is used as a baseline 2.The user is able to scale the future workforce (either by a percentage or FTE) based on their estimates for: Expected recruitment rates Promotions in/out Transfers in/out Retirements Attrition 3.Adjustments can be applied to the whole workforce, or to specific areas of the workforce. eg by area of work, pay band, directorate, ward etc. Current workforce (ESR) Inflows e.g. Recruitment, promotions Outflows e.g. retirements, transfers out Future workforce capacity

9. Workforce Demand Modelling End to End Workforce Planning Review an easy step by step wizard, which walks the less advanced user through the workforce planning process

10. Planning Wizard

11. Workforce Demand Modelling- Scenario 1 Epidemic of preventable childhood diseases Map the workforce impact of an increase in the prevalence of tooth decay and obesity across multiple pathways

12. Workforce Demand Modelling- Scenario 2 Changing the activities delivered by Speech & Language Therapy practitioners Demonstrate the changing responsibilities in the provision of Speech and Language Therapy Services by mapping workforce activities

13. Workforce Demand Modelling- Scenario 3 Modelling nursing workforce requirements in the community Model benchmark metrics in the primary care setting

14. Homepage

15. Manage Data Uploads

16. Model Homepage

17. Reporting Outcomes

18. Exemplar Experience of Workforce Modelling Tool Sarah Race Right Care, Right Here Heart of Birmingham Teaching PCT

20. How have I been involved? How have I used the tool? Contributed to development of tool Training and Testing Feedback enhancements Supported Deloitte with training Management cuts in HOBtPCT Modelled localised MOM Cardiology pathway (Ectopic Beats) across three Trusts Future Projects Intermediate Care GP Consortium Modelling in LHE Provide support to WIG

21. So what next? Wider Launch in January 2011 Intellectual Property of NHS Develop method for roll out with SHAs Agree process for training and maintenance Manage non-NHS commercial aspects Licensing agreements

22. Trish Knight East Midlands SHA Trish.Knight@nhs.net Whole Systems Modelling

23. ‘Quality patient care is dependent upon robust service planning underpinned by effective workforce development planning which informs educational and modernisation investment’

24. Next Stage Review: challenge to workforce An approach to informing strategic workforce decisions using systems modelling Becomes Policy levers or changes: Increasing the percentage of people whose last days are in the community rather than in hospital; Avoiding significant numbers of hospital admissions and providing care through integrated and co- ordinated specialist teams in the community; The impact of providing support at the early stages of diagnosis and enhancing self care such that the period before complex care management is needed is extended. Apply Using Engagement Modelling the system The Functional Health Map Grid Workforce shifts – the challenge Informing LONG TERM CONDITIONS

25. Capacity Change Overall care and support needs reduce as a result of policy impact, more than cancelling out demographic changes, although with the greatest change at lower levels of skill requirements ‘City’ PCTCounty PCT InitialFutureInitialFutureChange Generic9884261225-14% Enhanced5047133125-6% Specialist13 35 Level Total161144429384

26. Skills Mix – Hospital 2008 to 2018 Slightly less reliance on generic skills, with corresponding shift toward enhanced and specialist skills.

27. Skills Mix – Community 2008 to 2018 Similar shift to that in hospital toward higher skills mix but at a larger scale.

28. Skills Mix – Shifts Generic skills requirements would reduce in both hospital (by 22%) and in the community (by 14%) due to the greater emphasis on early intervention, but would reduce to a greater extent in a hospital setting due to fewer admissions for either primary or secondary diagnosis of a LTnC; Enhanced skill levels would remain constant in the community as early intervention and the shift from hospital to community appear to balance each other out, although in the hospital there is a reduced need for this level of skills by approximately 16%; Specialist skill levels would increase in the community whilst reducing in a hospital setting by almost exactly the same amount – in a city configuration this would equate to just under 1wte member of staff moving from hospital to community whilst for a County configuration this would rise to almost 2wte.

29. Issues and challenges for the future

30. 1.What are the future issues and challenges for workforce modelling? 2.What do you need from workforce modelling?

31. What next? To continue the debate please join the Workforce Analysis & Modelling Community www.cfwi.org.uk/forums