2. Excuse me. Can you tell me where I am? You’re in a balloon.

3. You must be an economist. Your answer is perfectly correct and totally useless. You must be a manager. You have a great view, but don’t know where you are.

15. “In economic news, the government reported that conflicting economic indicators were up 8.4%.”

17. And CNBC wants to talk about Martha Stewart?

19. 2003 Positives Falling interest rates Housing Mortgage refinancing Tax cuts & credits Defense spending 2003 Negatives War Energy prices SARS Confidence Legacy of strong $

20. 2004 Positives Low interest rates Furnishing houses Tax refunds Bonus depreciation Weaker $ 2004 Negatives Energy prices Expectations/pessimism Reluctance to hire

21. This time, recovery is for real. Economy accelerated sharply in mid-2003; U.S. economy entered 2004 with lots of momentum. Policy stimuli have overcome diminished headwinds. Growth is shifting from consumption-driven to investment-driven. Lean inventories, improving capital spending, and stabilizing trade deficit mean GDP can grow strongly even if consumer spending decelerates.

30. U.S. manufacturing is growing again! Production hit bottom in May 2003. Manufacturing should outperform rest of economy in 2004 – first time since 1999. Manufacturing under-performed because of inventory drawdown and widening of trade deficit. Inventories are being rebuilt; trade deficit has stopped widening. This downturn has not been a normal cyclical event; production unlikely to get all the way back to trend.

43. Manufacturing turning up globally. Recovery from 2001 global recession has been slow almost everywhere. Manufacturing recovery stalled in mid-2002 (except in China). Recent data show an acceleration in most of the world. Leading indicators suggest growth will continue.

48. “You want to know what Alan Greenspan is thinking? Hey. I’m good, but I’m not that good.”

56. Global economy has shifted into a higher gear. Recovery was held back by war worries, high energy prices, weak stock prices, lack of confidence. Stimulative policies have finally overcome the diminishing headwinds. Shift in production to China and failure to adjust financial targets to a “single-digit world” are still holding back capital spending and hiring. 2004 will be best year for global growth since 2000.

57. Are you happy now?

62. Past results are not indicative of future returns. -- Your broker’s lawyers

63. There is nowhere else to look for the future but in the past. -- James Burke

64. The further back in history you look, the further into the future you see. -- Winston Churchill

66. Recent results are not indicative of future returns. -- Robert Fry