1. ESA :DRAGON/ EU :AMFIC Air quality Monitoring and Forecasting In China Ronald van der A, KNMI Bas Mijling, KNMI Hennie Kelder KNMI, TUE DRAGON /AMFIC project OMI science team meeting june 6 2007

2. Objectives:  Monitoring air pollution over China  Detection of trends  Improving anthropogenic NO 2 emission estimates  Forecasting air pollution over China  Validation

3. Timeline  Dragon I 2005 - 2008  Dragon II 2008 - 2012  AMFIC 2007 - 2009

4. List of partner institutes  KNMI Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Netherlands (PI)  BIRA-IASB Belgium Institute for Space Aeronomy, Belgium  VITO Flemish institute for technological research, Belgium  DUTH Democritus University of Thrace, Greece  NOA National Observatory of Athens, Greece  LAP-AUTH Lab. of Atmospheric Physics, Greece  FMI Finnish Meteorological Institute, Finland  IFE University of Bremen, Germany  NSMC National Satellite Meteorological Center, China  IAP-CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics, China

5. First Results Dragon Project After rain (August 2005) On a sunny, polluted, day (August 2005) Beijing

6. Satellite products  GOME / SCIAMACHY / OMI UV/VIS retrievals (KNMI, BIRA-IASB) –Tropospheric O 3 –Tropospheric NO 2 –SO 2 –Formaldehyde (CH 2 O)  SCIAMACHY IR retrievals (IFE) –CH 4, CO and CO 2  ATSR (FMI, IAP-CAS, NSMC) –Aerosols

7. UV/VIS retrievals NO 2 CH 2 O SO 2 O3O3 Jos de Laat

8. Methane  SCIAMACHY: IR channel 6 (1000-1750 nm)  Non-linear DOAS (iterative)  Ratio of CO 2 and CH 4 to derive the column averaged mixing ratio of methane Source: Frankenberg et al., Science 308, 2005

9. CH 4 Observations vs Model SCIA TM5 Buchwitz et al., ACP, 2006

10. Carbon monoxide (CO) from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT Buchwitz et al., ACP, 2007

11. Buchwitz et al., ACPD, 2007 carbontracker.noaa.gov Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from SCIAMACHY/ENVISAT

12. Aerosol retrieval with ATSR Algorithm to be adapted to the Chinese situation (aerosol type) Courtesy G. de Leeuw, FMI

13. Tasks of Chinese Partners NSMC National Satellite Meteorological Center  Validation of satellite retrieved NO 2, O 3, SO 2, CO with ground based measurements  Intercomparison of regional models NSMC with Aurora(VITO) and TM5/CHIMERE(KNMI) IAP-CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics  Participation in aerosol retrieval – Algorithm development and application  Validation of satellite retrieved O 3, CO with ground based measurements

14. Satellite retrieval validation Aerosols AERONET network Brewer spectrometer SO 2 Brewer spectrometers in China and Europe O 3 Ozone sondes Dobson In-situ measurements CO Sun spectrometer NO 2 In-situ measurements Ground-based observations

15.  ECMWF meteorological input  Chemical-transport model TM 5  Resolution 1x1 degree  Optional: High resolution CHIMERE model 0,25x0.25 degree Air quality forecasting Example Dutch air quality site (CHIMERE model)

16. Tropospheric NO 2

17. Higher resolution on tropospheric NO 2 GOMESCIAMACHY OMI and (GOME 2)

18. Change in NO 2 column densities over China 2003 SCIAMACHY mean tropospheric NO 2 2006

19. Based on monthly averaged NO 2 columns from GOME (1996-2003) and SCIAMACHY (2003-2006) measurements. Large increase of NO 2 over industrial and economical areas of eastern China. Trend detection of tropospheric NO 2 over China Van der A et al., J. Geophys. Res., 111, 2006, Richter et al. Mean NO 2 1996 Mean NO 2 2005 Trend Error on trend Beijing11.321.41.120.26 Shanghai5.119.01.550.21 Chongqing3.85.50.190.08 Shenyang4.58.70.470.11 Seoul9.39.1-0.030.10 Pearl river delta (Hong Kong) 6.011.00.560.35

20.  Emission inventories based on energy consumption forecasts and statistical data; China lack of data  Large increase in anthropogenic NO x emissions in China;  Inventories to be updated Difference observed – modeled NO 2 columns New anthropogenic NO x emission estimates needed

21. Inversion procedure  Find the relation between anthropogenic NO x emission and modeled tropospheric NO 2 columns, Martin et al. JGR,2003  Use this relation combined with satellite observations of tropospheric NO 2 to estimate anthropogenic NO x emissions  Run model using the new emission estimates iterate to improve the anthropogenic NO x emission estimates

22. NO x emission estimates for China in 2003 original anthropogenic NO x emissions (EDGAR 3.2) top-down estimates of anthropogenic NO x emissions

23. Trend in NO x emissions  Trend more localized than trend in tropospheric NO 2 from satellite  Emissions 1997- 2005, exponential growth Trend in yearly Chinese NO x emissions (1997-2005)

24. Global implications Growth in tropospheric O 3 column density due to increasing Chinese NO x emissions (1997-2005)  Higher emissions of NOx and hydrocarbons cause increase in tropospheric ozone: 0.4% increase in global tropospheric ozone

25. Results and outlook  Trend in NO 2 concentrations from satellite observations determined  New estimates of emissions of anthropogenic NO 2 for China  Estimation of contribution of increase in Chinese emissions in global tropospheric O 3 concentration  Including OMI and GOME2 data for higher resolution information and extension of the data sets  Continuation of the trend studies  Validation  Starting the modeling activities  Next Dragon Meeting in two weeks in Aix en Provence (F)

26. Xie xie Thank you