1. GHG Emission Trends & Technological Options for its reduction in Pakistan By Jawed Ali Khan, TNA Consultant Mitigation Feb. 2016

2. Temperature rise projections Pakistan & Global During the last century, average annual temperature in Pakistan increased by 0.6  C. Average temp. over Pakistan will increase by:  1.3 – 1.5  C by 2020;  2.5 – 2.8  C by 2050; &  3.9 – 4.4  C by 2080. Average global surface temperature will increase by 2.8 – 3.4  C by turn of 21 st century. Pakistan is a low GHG emitting country, it contributes only about 8 percent of the total GHG emission. 2

3. GHG Emission Trends 1994-2012 GHG inventories carried out in Pakistan in 1994, 2008 and 2012, reveals that total GHG emission increased from 181.7; 309.4 to 369m tons of CO 2 equivalent, respectively. Sector-wise GHG emission was recorded lighest in energy which contributed 47.2; 50.7 and 45.9% in 1994, 2008 and 2012, respectively. The 2 nd highest GHG emission sector was Agriculture which recorded an emission of 39.4; 38.8 & 44.8% in 1994, 2008 and 2012, respectively Contribution of other sectors in terms of GHG emission were from industrial process, land use and land use change and forests and wastes in the inventory years 1994, 2008 and 2012. 3

4. Total National GHG emissions & removals by Inventory year Million tons of CO2 equivalent

5. Total National GHG emissions & removals by Inventory year Million tons of CO2 equivalent

6. Technologies prioritized in selected sectors Energy 1.Boiler and furnace energy efficiency improvement 2.Building energy efficiency improvement 3.Micro and small hydro 4.Solar energy technology 5.Wind generators 6.Using nuclear technologies for electricity generation 7.Clean coal technology

7. Technologies prioritized in selected sectors Agriculture 1.Appropriate application of fertilizers & soil Carbon management 2.Rice cultivation by alternate wetting & drying/aerobic 3.Diet options for reducing Enteric Fermentation in ruminant animals Land Use, LU Change & Forestry 1.Social/ Farm forestry as Carbon sink 2.Reducing Emissions from Deforestation & Forest Degradation (REDD+) 3.Preparation and implementation of Land use plans at village, District, Provincial and National levels Waste 1.Biogas – Compressed bio-methane from Organic Waste 2.Waste to energy through a furnace 3.Integrated resource recovery from waste

8. Technologies prioritized in selected sectors Transport & industrial process 1.Bus rapid transport 2.Railway transportation 3.Adjustment of air-fuel mixture for better ignition, carburetor and other routine checkups in Vehicles 4.Catalytic Converters for vehicles and industries 5.Waste heat recovery

9. Performance matrix showing scores of selected technologies in energy sector # Technology Name Potenti al to save usage of fuel Tim e savi ng Reduct ion of GHGs Health benefits Sustai nabili ty Initial/ Capita l cost Operatio n and Mainten ance cost Capacity building is required safety and reliabil ity Employm ent generatio n & market potential Social impac ts 1 Boiler & furnace energy efficiency Improveme nt (EEI) 8090806050858070808575 2 EEI in buildings 706080 85708070858075 3 Solar energy 8090 80 9590556080 4Large hydro 9020805570559060759050

10. DescriptionMitigation Potential Improving EE through boiler & furnace tune up; control of air leakage, insulation, blow-down; introducing high turn-down burner, air pre-heater, variable frequency drive coupled with O2 trimming system, feed water treatment, flash steam recovery Up to 35% reduction in emissions of GHGs Boiler and furnace energy efficiency improvement

11. DescriptionMitigation Potential Improving EE through building design, air conditioner inverter, power factor improvement, efficient lighting & fuel- efficient stoves Up to 70% reduction in emissions of GHGs Building energy efficiency improvement

12. DescriptionMitigation Potential Introduction of solar Photovoltaic and thermal technologies for power generation, water pumping, solar geyser, solar dryer. Up to 70% reduction in emissions of GHGs - If 50-65% of households, equivalent to 12 million households, use solar water heaters by 2030, the emission reduction potential can reach 100 million tons of CO2 Solar energy technology

13. DescriptionMitigation Potential Micro plants are up to 150 KW, mini up to 5 MW, small are up to 50 MW Up to 70% reduction in emissions of GHGs. Potential >40,000 MW of which only 15% harnessed so far. If 25000 MW are produced from Micro, mini and small hydro, it can save GHG emissions up to 46 million tons of CO2 as compared to electricity generation energy mix in the country. Micro, mini, & small Hydro power plants

14. DescriptionMitigation Potential Mostly wind generators with capacity >50 KW Up to 60% reduction in emissions of GHGs Gross wind power potential is 43000 MW. Exploitable electric power generation potential 11000MW. This can reduce 20 million tons of CO2 compared to producing this power from present energy mix. Wind generators

15. DescriptionMitigation Potential International cooperation on civilian nuclear technology should be extended to the country to mitigate GHG emissions. This cooperation would be under IAEA safeguards 60% as compared to electricity generation from thermal sources Using nuclear technologies for electricity generation

16. DescriptionMitigation Potential SC & USC power plants operate at high temperature (SC 556-566  C; USC >580  C) & pressure (SC 246-250; USC >270 kg/cm 2 ). This results in higher efficiencies > 45%. The SC & USC power plants require less coal per MW-hour, leading to lower emissions (including CO2 and mercury), higher efficiency & lower fuel costs per MW Up to 30% reduction in emissions of GHGs Clean coal technology (Supercritical (SC) & Ultra- supercritical (USC)

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