1. Powering the Future: Energy Alternatives for a Warming World Milton L. Charlton Chief for Environment, Science, Technology and Health Affairs U.S. Embassy Seoul

2. Global Energy Challenges --Rapid growth in demand --Air pollution --Energy security --Climate change

3. Global Need for Energy  Economic and Social Development is Impossible without Access to Energy Access to Energy 2 billion still lack access 2 billion still lack access to modern energy to modern energy  But our heavy reliance on fossil fuels must change

4. Rapid Growth in Demand 50 – 60% increase expected by 2030 Coal demand is rising fastest

5. Air Pollution Coal, oil and other fossil fuels produce pollutants and particulates

6. Energy Security Few suppliers to international markets Many from unstable regions Many from unstable regions Threats include supply disruptions and price instability

7. Climate Change IPCC report Human causes of global warming especially from burning fossil fuels

8. Climate Change IPCC forecastsignificant social disruption caused by rising global temperatures IPCC forecasts significant social disruption caused by rising global temperatures

9. UNFCCC Bali Meeting  187 nations  Agreed roadmap for future negotiations “Measurable, reportable, “Measurable, reportable, Verifiable” cuts by all  Major achievement laying groundwork for future consensus

10. Needed: A Clean Technology Revolution Research is showing us positive paths forward (though there are bumps on the way)

11. TRANSPORTATION SECTOR  Half of the 5 trillion liters of oil burned in 2005 were for transport Globally, oil used for transport produces 42% of CO2 emissions; 33% in U.S. Globally, oil used for transport produces 42% of CO2 emissions; 33% in U.S. Transportation accounts for 80% of U.S. urban air pollution. Transportation accounts for 80% of U.S. urban air pollution.  But 7/8 of world's people do not yet people do not yet own cars. own cars.

12. Clean Energy Solutions for Transport -- Under Development Biofuels Hybrid Vehicles Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

13. Biofuels: Ethanol from Corn Is it a clean solution? Biofuels: Ethanol from Corn Is it a clean solution? Tailpipe emissions are lower, but some analysts argue that lifecycle emissions may not be. Tropical maize may have lower lifecycle emissions Food prices rising.

14. Brazil: Ethanol from Sugar Cane  Ethanol made from cane reduces greenhouse gas emissions by 56 percent compared to gasoline, by some estimates  Yield is twice as much per acre compared to corn ethanol

15. Cellulosic Ethanol Cuts greenhouse gas emissions by as much as 85 percent Feedstocks can be switchgrass, wood waste, corn stalks. Price high but falling Photo by Warren Gretz

16. Biodiesel  Emissions of unburned hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, sulfur oxide, and particulates much lower than diesel fuel  Nitrogen oxide emissions slightly higher

17. Current Hybrid Models 12 models on market, 9 more planned. 2007 Prius--most fuel-efficient car sold in U.S.--20 KM per liter of gasoline. Can run on battery, gasoline engine, or both simultaneously. Captures energy normally lost through braking to recharge batteries.

18. Plug-in Hybrids Promise 60 KM per charge – range of most commutes Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory

19. Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles Produce only water and heat, not greenhouse gases Source: General Motors

20. Power Generation Sector  Power generation accounts for a very large share of global emissions

21. Clean Energy Solutions for Power Generation Clean Coal Carbon Capture and Sequestration Nuclear Energy Renewables

22. Clean Coal Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) – removes pollutants and some GHG

23. Carbon Capture and Sequestration Source: Energy Information Administration

24. Nuclear Energy Near Zero Emissions

25. A “Nuclear Renaissance?”  Incentives to industry to build new nuclear plants  New licensing procedures, standardized designs should lower capital costs  Global Nuclear Energy Partnership seeks to expand access to nuclear power without increasing proliferation risks

26. A “Nuclear Renaissance?”  Six applications received so far  13 more expected this year

27. Renewable Energy  Solar Photovoltaic  Solar Thermal  Wind  Geothermal  Hydropower  Biomass  Tidal and wave

28. Renewable Energy Cost Trends Levelized cents/kWh in constant $2000 1 Wind 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 PV COE cents/kWh 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 40 30 20 10 0 100 80 60 40 20 0 Biomass Geothermal Solar thermal 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 COE cents/kWh 10 8 6 4 2 0 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 15 12 9 6 3 0 Source: NREL Energy Analysis Office (www.nrel.gov/analysis/docs/cost_curves_2002.ppt) 1 These graphs are reflections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data. Updated: October 2002

29. Renewable Energy Focus in 2008  U.S. hosted Washington International Renewable Energy Conference (WIREC), March 4-6, 2008

30. A Growing Market for Clean Energy  Wind energy investment  Solar installations  Biofuel use rising

31. A Growing Market  Rising oil prices reduce gap with price of clean energy  Government policies support market development Rebates for hybrids, solar Rebates for hybrids, solar  “Green Building” movement gaining traction gaining traction  Consumers considering environment in their choices environment in their choices  Venture capital investing

32. Wind Energy  In U.S., wind power is growing rapidly 20 percent of new installed generating capacity in 2007 20 percent of new installed generating capacity in 2007 Up 300 percent since 2001 Up 300 percent since 2001

33. Solar Energy  In U.S., 100 percent growth since 2001  32 percent increase in 2007 alone

34. Biofuels  Ethanol production in U.S. rose from 1.6 billion gallons in 2000 to 6.4 billion gallons in 2007  U.S. produced 450 million gallons of biodiesel in 2007 Up 80 percent from 2006 Up 80 percent from 2006 Currently more than 650 biodiesel fueling stations Currently more than 650 biodiesel fueling stations

35. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 Will Expand Market for Biofuels and Other Clean Technologies Mandates use of 36 billion gallons of renewable fuel by 2022 Also raises national fuel economy standard by almost 40 percent, to 35 miles per gallon, by 2020 All new Federal buildings to be carbon-neutral by 2030 www.whitehouse.gov

36. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 – advanced fuels mandates New standard includes lifecycle GHG requirements for qualifying fuels Includes mandates for use of advanced (and clean) biofuels. E.g., for cellulosic ethanol:.5 billion gallons by 2012, 5.5 billion gallons by 2017, and 21 billion gallons by 2022

37. Green Buildings Help Create Market for Renewables  U.S. Green Building Council launched a “green building” rating system in 1998 “Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design” – LEED “Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design” – LEED Buildings consume more than 40 percent of total energy use Buildings consume more than 40 percent of total energy use  In 10 years, more than 14,000 projects in 30 countries seeking LEED certification Higher initial costs compensated by lower operating costs Higher initial costs compensated by lower operating costs Renewable energy not required, but is one factor among many considered in certification Renewable energy not required, but is one factor among many considered in certification  Several U.S. cities now require LEED for large projects Washington state public buildings must be LEED Washington state public buildings must be LEED

38. Clean Technology Fund  President Bush proposes a U.S. commitment of $2 billion  Japan, UK, others will also contribute  Aims to help developing countries afford cleaner technologies

39. Eliminating Barriers to Clean Technologies  U.S. and EU back a proposal in World Trade Organization to eliminate barriers to trade in clean technologies  Makes no sense to tax clean technologies, slowing their adoption

40. U.S. State and Local Governments Adopt Renewable Energy Mandates  24 states have renewable energy portfolio standards for electricity production; 4 more states have nonbinding goals  Targets range from 4 percent by 2009 (Massachusetts) to 25 percent by 2025 (Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon)  California aims for 20 percent by 2010.

41. California Solar Initiative  “Million Solar Roofs” program launched in 2006 with increased subsidies  Doubling of solar installations from 200 MW to 400 MW in 2007 alone  Goal is 3000 MW by 2017.

42. “Green Cities” Expand Market  Chicago adopted a goal of 20% renewable energy by 2010  Minneapolis is considering hybrid buses with 26 percent better fuel economy  Boston will cut GHG to 7 percent below 1990 level by 2012 Through energy efficiency, renewable energy, green building standards, urban forests Through energy efficiency, renewable energy, green building standards, urban forests All large new buildings must be LEED certified. All large new buildings must be LEED certified.  San Francisco -- $100 million solar bond All new municipal buildings must be LEED Silver All new municipal buildings must be LEED Silver

43. Pledges at WIREC  Renewables as percentage of total energy Australia—20% by 2020 Australia—20% by 2020 EU—20% by 2020 EU—20% by 2020 Denmark—30% by 2025 Denmark—30% by 2025 Jamaica—10% by 2010, 15% by 2020 Jamaica—10% by 2010, 15% by 2020 Jordan—10% by 2020 Jordan—10% by 2020 Spain—12% by 2012 Spain—12% by 2012 Sweden—49% by 2020 Sweden—49% by 2020

44. Pledges at WIREC  New Zealand – 90% of electricity from renewables by 2025  Spain – 30% of electricity by 2010  Norway – carbon neutral by 2050  U.S. – 36 billion gallons of biofuel by 2022  U.S. -- $10 billion in loan guarantees for renewable energy and energy efficiency  U.S. Department of Defense – 25% of electricity from renewables by 2025

45. U.S. Support for Clean Energy Solutions Nearly $18 billion since 2001

46. International Partnerships --Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate --International Partnership for a Hydrogen Economy --Methane to Markets --Carbon Sequestration Leadership Forum --Generation IV Nuclear Forum and GNEP --International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER)

47. The Future is Almost Here Experts believe that Cellulosic ethanol can be commercialized within 5 to 10 years Automakers expect to sell plug-in hybrids by 2012

48. A Strong Sense of Mission  “Energy security and climate change are two of the great challenges of our time. The United States takes these challenges seriously. The world’s response will help shape the future of the global economy and the condition of our environment for future generations….By developing low-emission technologies, we can meet the growing demand for energy and at the same time reduce air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.”  President George W. Bush, September 28, 2007