Presentation on theme: "How does drug policy affect the illicit drugs market?"— Presentation transcript:
1 How does drug policy affect the illicit drugs market? Franz TrautmannTrimbos Institute
2 Based on Trimbos/RAND study on global illicit drugs markets 1998-2007 (ed. Reuter and Trautmann) Covering:Analysis of the operation of the global market for illicit drugsCocaine, heroin, marijuana, Amphetamine Type Stimulants (ATS)Estimating seize of the marketEstimating economic costs of drug useWhat has happened to the marketWhat were the policies of the periodHow did these policies affect the marketsAnalysing unintended consequences of drug policy
3 Outline Drug policy 1998-2007: Drug problems 1998-2007: Demand reductionSupply reductionDrug problems :ConsumptionSupplyUnintended consequencesPolicy analysis
4 General policy trendsDrug policy expenditures in many countries increased substantiallyThe biggest share of expenditures for supply reductionMeasures against production and trafficking intensified substantiallyDemand and harm reduction measures intensified and (the latter) spread to more nations
5 Drug policy expenditures in four countries Total drug policy expendituresDemand reductionSupply reductionHungary 2000€22million€4 million1€16 millionHungary 2007€40million€7million1€30 millionCzech Republic 2002€7 million2€6 million€1 million3Czech Republic 2006€13 million2€7 million€6 million3United States 20044$13 billion$5 billion$7 millionUnited States 20064$12 billion$5 million$8 billionThe Netherlands€2,185 million€540 million5€1,646 million1. Figure includes expenditures for treatment, harm reduction and other social care.2. National/federal budget (i.e. not including local/state budgets).3. Not including the expenditures for the national drug squad which increased from €3,395,000 in2003 (2002 figures are not available) to €3,757,000.4. These figures show the executed budget and only include federal expenditures and exclude somemajor items, in particular the costs of prosecution and imprisonment. It is usually assumed thatstate and local governments spend as much as the federal government. Total nationalexpenditures, dominated by enforcement, are probably around $35 billion.5. Figure includes expenditures for prevention, treatment and harm reduction.
6 Convergence of policies: demand side Strong political support for preventionGrowing emphasis on proven effective programmesFew demonstrated programs of even modest effectivenessMany implemented programs ineffectiveIncreasing budgetary and political support for treatmentOST is spreadingEven to unlikely countries, e.g. China, IranIn 26 of 27 EU Member States
7 Convergence of policies: demand side Other Harm Reduction measures also spreadingSyringe Exchange Programs now in many countriesEven in U.S. though not with federal supportReduced willingness to punish drug usersMore decriminalization of drug use, mostly marijuanaAdministrative sanctions for possession of small quantities for personal useFew arrestees are incarceratedEmphasis on pushing arrested addicts into treatment
8 Convergence of policies: supply side Increasing toughness towards sellersMore arrestedLonger statutory sentencesLonger actual sentencesUS exceptional in numbers incarceratedEuropean intensity probably one tenth
9 European arrest figures rising The trends represent the available information on the national number of reports for drug law offences (criminal and non-criminal) reported by all law enforcement agencies in the EU Member States; all series are indexed to a base of 100 in 2001 and weighted by country population sizes to form an overall EU trend; the figures between brackets refer to the total number of offences as reported in 2001 (before weighting).
10 Drug-law offences / arrests In most countries use and possession still account for majority of arrestscannabis offences dominateVery few cannabis arrests lead to prison sentences
11 Arrests for use/possession and dealing/trafficking 199820052005 Use +possession for use2005 Dealing +traffickingCzech Republic1,5302,1287.8%92.2%Hungary6,6707,61691.7%8.3%Netherlands12,61620,54830.9%68.8%Portugal11,39511,82552.9%47.1%Sweden11,49018,84486.1%13.9%Switzerland63,220156,3421(2006)83%15%2Turkey8,360(2002)13,22948.0%52.0%United Kingdom130,643122,459(2004)86.4%13.6%1. Drug use offences, including cases linked with dealing and/or trafficking2. 2% for ‘unknown offences’
12 Drug consumption Western drug use largely stable or declining Marijuana prevalence rates among youth fallingSome exceptionsHeroin dependent population aging and decliningCocaine rising in Europe, falling in USATS patterns complex but numbers still rather small (with some exceptions, e.g. CZ)
14 Experimentation with cannabis is common in Western countries
15 Total US Cocaine consumption 1988-2000 (in metric tons)
16 Consumption indicators for non-Western countries are weak Cannabis use generally much lower than in USe.g survey Mexico City: 3.2% of year olds report ever using marijuanaU.S figure 10 times as highHeroin use stable except for major epidemic in Russia and Central AsiaCocaine use slight outside of Western countries and a few in South AmericaMexico still modest use levels despite its trans-shipment roleATS unclearPrevalence figures are stabilising in some (advanced) transitional countries in the past decade.Drug use prevalence increased in developing countries.
17 Supply side changes modest: opiates and cocaine The production of opiates and cocaine is concentrated in very few countriesAfghanistan is by far the main producer of opium, Colombia of cocaNo changes which countries produce, just some shifts in distribution across countries
18 Supply side changes unclear and rather negative: ATS ATS production is spread over several countries;The number of production countries increased in past decade;New producers: in particular transitional countries;ATS production diverse, from small-scale kitchen laboratories to large industrial-scale laboratories;Some shifts in quantities produced from countries with intensified control to countries with less control.
19 Supply side changes diffuse and rather negative: Cannabis Cannabis production in more than 172 countries.Cannabis resin production more concentrated than cannabis herb production;cannabis resin in 58116 for cannabis herb production.Mexico and Morocco only large scale exporters but account for small share of total consumptionAn increasing number of countries are involved in cannabis herb production.Cannabis herb production takes diverse forms, from small-scale home growing to large-scale agricultural business
20 Supply side changes: trafficking Impact of anti-trafficking measures on quantities trafficked hard to measureSeizures indicator for trafficking routes rather than for trafficked quantitiesChanges in trafficking routes occur every few yearsCentral Asia heroin trafficking post-1995West African cocaine route post-2005
21 Unintended policy consequences on drugs market Increasing interdiction rates for trafficking may lead to greater export demand;Violence of producers, traffickers, dealers and users as response to tougher enforcement;Large black markets generate incentives for corruption;Environmental and health damage caused by enforcement induced replacement of big methamphetamine laboratories by smaller labs using varying ingredients
22 Despite supply reduction efforts: prices have declined, e.g. in EU The trends represent the available information on national street-level prices (either typical or mean prices, depending on countries and data available) for each drug in the EU Member States and Norway, weighted by country population sizes to form an overall EU trend. Prices have been adjusted for national inflation rates (base year 2001) and all series indexed to a base of 100 in 2001.
25 Control efforts have minimal effect on global drug supply Examples:Increased control efforts not reflected in prices of illicit drugs, especially in Western countriesPolicy can reduce the nature and location of harms related to production and traffickingInterventions can affect where production and trafficking occursBalloon effect: control efforts in Peru and Bolivia shift production to Colombia'Closing' of Netherlands Antilles smuggling route for cocaine to Europe may have supported West African route
26 Drug policy has limited effects on drug demand Drug use is driven by broader social, economic and cultural factorsPolicy measures can not affect:Whether an epidemic startsSeverity of epidemicPrevalence of dependencePolicy can reduce harmfulness of drug useDrug problems drive drug policy
27 Selection of 18 countries for detailed study Criteria for selecting countriesSize (China and India)Major role in production and/or trafficking (Iran and Colombia)Major consumers (the United States)Coverage of all regions of the globeSubstantial differences in the drugs problem they face (production, trafficking and use)Differences in societal changes during the past ten years;WesternTransitionalDeveloping
28 Selected countries Australia The Netherlands Brazil Portugal Canada RussiaChinaSouth AfricaColombiaSwedenCzech RepublicSwitzerlandHungaryTurkeyIndiaUnited KingdomMexicoUnited States
29 Principal methodological issues No primary data collectionAnalysed available data sourcesEMCDDA, UNODC, national studies, expert opinionConceptual challenges:Differences across nations in concepts and terminology (e.g. problem drug use)Empirical challenges:Data quality (e.g. political interests)Data scarcityData inconsistency (e.g. differences in age groups and periods covered)Data on non-Western countries extremely limited