1. Dr William Hung System Technical Specialist National Grid Managing the Future National Transmission System – A Smart er Way Power Generation Control Conference Birmingham Austin Court 9 December 2010

2. National Grid – The power of action National Grid may have a good track record 99.9999% Reliability But, we are not complacent… Learning from the pastPlanning for the future Generation mix challenges Smart Grid Innovations Smarter Energy Balancing

3. Drivers for Change

4. The Changing Generation Mix 2020:  28GW of wind plus 9GW of hydro, tidal, biomass  11GW nuclear available post 2.5GW of closures and 3GW new build  Demand remains flat - growth is offset by energy efficiency and smart metering  15 GW of embedded generation 2050:  30GW of nuclear now provides majority of baseload generation  Increased demand with electrification of  Transport (mainly during 2030s)  Heat (growth from 2020)

5. The Network Challenge: Electricity Transmission future potential investment to connect Scottish renewables existing network potential wind farm sites future potential load related investment to 2017 potential nuclear sites 2010 2020 ~75GW ~110GW

6. Anticipatory Investment in Electricity Transmission future potential investment to connect Scottish renewables existing network potential wind farm sites future potential onshore load related investment potential nuclear sites £4.7bn of proposed reinforcements Programme of extra investment identified to March 2012

7. What are the Issues on Frequency Control and System Security? There will be an important role for Smart Demands Challenges to System Frequency Control & Security of Supply  Maintain security and quality of supply standards  Economic purchase of Ancillary Services  System users/ service provider commitments  Grid Code/CUSC/MSA Transmission Licence Obligations  Closure of flexible and responsive plant (eg conventional coal, gas and oil stations)  New plants are less flexibility and less responsive (eg clean coal, supercritical boiler, IGCC, CCS, new nuclear)  Domination of wind farms – intermittency issues  Secured generation loss – increase to 1800 MW from 1320 MW  Significant increase of small embedded generation – less robust and invisible to System Operators Future Challenges  Frequency control requirements  Statutory  0.5 Hz, Operational  0.2 Hz & SD 0.07Hz  Cover instant generation loss of up to 1320 MW  Avoid load disconnection - keep above 48.8 Hz  9 Stages of demand disconnection and up to 60% Frequency Control Performance

8. Frequency Control Analogy

9. Frequency Control/Wheel Pulling Analogy  GeneratorsVehicles  FrequencyWheel speed  Demand levelSlope gradient  Load variationsBumpy road  TV pickupBig rock  Largest generation lossLargest truck stalled  BlackoutWheel run away

10. Typical Frequency Incidents freqcont.ppt 009 24/02/99

11. Low Frequency Automatic Demand Disconnection Incident - 27 th May 2008 Loss of 345MW generation Loss of 1237MW generation Loss of 40MW wind farms and > 92MW embedded generation Further 279MW embedded generation losses Automatic low frequency relay Demand disconnection, 546MW Demand Control

12. England ‘v’ Sweden (20 th June 2006, 8pm) System Operation – Exceptional Events TV Pick Ups met using combination of coal plant, French Interconnector & pump storage hydro Half Time 1800MW Full Time 1600MW

13. The future is not certain... CCS technologies need to be ‘tested and proven’ Based on deterministic planning standards (NETS SQSS), supported by cost benefit analysis At Peak Demand 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 201520162017201820192020 Power Flow (GW) Range of Transfers across Anglo-Scottish (B6) Boundary required to accommodate between 11.4 & 6GW of renewable generation in Scotland 11.4GW 6GW Current Boundary Capability Programmed Reinforcements for 2011 Year Schwarze pumpe CCS, Germany

14. February 2006 wind & demand data High pressure, low temperature period – higher gas demand Whilst the extended low wind period is unusual, the general volatility is typical Wind Intermittency

15. Intermittency Creates Significant Challenges… There will be an important role for Smart Demands Challenges to System Balancing and Security of Supply  How reliable is renewable generation as a source?  How much conventional capacity can it displace?  What are the system integration cost and benefits? Generation Capacity Adequacy  How much T&D capacity is required to effectively transport renewable power?  Can the network operation philosophy be changed to maximise the benefit of renewable generation  What are the costs and benefits of active network management? Transmission & Distribution Networks  What are the needs for flexible generation and response reserve capability? What are the costs?  What are the benefits of having flexible demands? Real Time System Balancing

16. Can we ‘Predict and Provide’ without a Smarter Grid?

17. Transmission reinforcement alone is not sufficient ….. Meters An informative display showing energy utilisation and cost Increases consumers’ sensitivity to energy prices and thus reduces demand... Grids Automation and efficient use of network systems Facilitates network flexibility in a complex generation pattern.. Demand Automation of loads in industrial plants, commercial buildings, superstores and home Facilitates demand side response in a world of more inflexible generation Flexing generation to meet demand Flexing demand to meet generation Maximising capacity with smart..

18. Smart Demand meets Smart Grid Objectives Dynamic Demand and Active Demand Side Management Smart Grid = Paradigm shift in providing flexibility From redundancy in assets to more intelligent operation through incorporation of demand side and advanced network technologies in support of real time grid management Source-HiDEF

19. The Future – Efficiency and Electrification Electricity HeatTransport Simple efficiency measures across all sectors Appliance efficiency Insulate homes Efficient engines and integrated transport Decarbonised electricity fuels zero emission vehicles Decarbonised electricity… Heat pump Mainly for new homes and decarbonise transport Decarbonise gas using biomethane Biomethane CNG

20. Electrification of Transport and Heat Pump Sectors Value of Smart Demand – equivalent to a saving of almost 40GW of installed generation capacity Source-HiDEF

21. …Smart Fridges/Freezers – could help to limit frequency fall Source-RLTec

22. Smart Fridges/Freezers – Displacing Power Stations Wind penetration Cost savings £/FF/10yr CO 2 savings kg/FF/yr LowHigh 10-30 30-5015-30 40-90 Source-HiDEF

23. Active Demand Side Management – Offset Wind Intermittency Water Heater HVAC Generation flexibility Cost savings £/kW/10yr CO 2 savings kg/kW/yr HighLow 3-15 100-250<50 75-100 Source-HiDEF

24. Operating the system in 2020 How to meet these challenges in the most economic and sustainable way whilst maintaining security of supply? Active Distribution Networks Smart Grids & meters Generation Demand Variable generation Synthetic inertia Distributed generation ROCOF & Robustness issues Active Demand Time of use tariffs Inflexible generation Variable generation Large generation 1800MW loss risk

25. What is a Smart Grid?  Two way communication - Sensing, automation and control  Self Healing and resilient  Asset optimisation  Active power flow management  Integration of renewable and distributed energy  More reliable, more efficient networks Customer Focused Tools to engage consumers with energy efficiency Network Focused Integration of new sources of supply & demand  Smart meters  Improved information and awareness  New energy services and tariffs  Home automation & Demand response solutions  More engaged, more efficient consumption

26. New Technology - to Make It Happen All this has been used elsewhere, but not together in a densely meshed network New technology is required to evolve the Transmission network and enable renewable generation  VSC Technology is still developing  2-3 year lead times for the larger cables  Multi terminal HVDC has very limited operational experience  Control system optimisation HVDC  Wide area monitoring to control power flows  Dynamic circuit rating to manage constraints  Special protection schemes to facilitate additional generation  Automated control to manage complex networks  Congestion management control  Opportunities to implement demand side management Smart Tools  Review of protection settings  Sub-synchronous resonance  Employed to control stability Series capacitors

27. Warning - Uncontrolled Smart Demand could Jeopardise System Security Balancing a system with significant volume of intermittent energy sources and increased credible generation loss risk will require more flexible and smarter demands to meet the renewable target and yet maintain the standards of security and quality of supply An uncontrolled development of smart demands could jeopardise future system security, for instance, fridges/freezers could provide frequency control, but under severe and sustained low frequency incidents they may jeopardise system frequency recovery as millions of f/f could cut in during this critical period to maintain food integrity Issues Risks Way Forward National Grid has been and will continue to work with the industry and university researchers to provide expertise on future system needs and exploit the potential of dynamic demands and active demand side management using innovative control techniques for future system frequency control and system balancing purposes

28. Conclusions It is a Challenge and an Opportunity for National Grid and other stakeholders But, It need join up effort between industry and government Generation More flexible and responsive Network More active and intelligent Demand smarter and well co-ordinated