1. Chapter 5 Discrete Probability Distributions

2. Overview Introduction O 5-1 Probability Distributions O 5-2 Mean, Variance, Standard Deviation, and Expectation O 5-3 The Binomial Distribution

3. random variable (x) O A random variable (x) is a variable whose values are determined by chance. discrete continuous discrete probability distribution O A discrete probability distribution consists of the values a random variable can assume and the corresponding probabilities of the values. Probability Distributions

4. probabilities  The sum of the probabilities of all events in a sample space add up to 1. ∑ p(x) = 1  Each probability is between 0 and 1, inclusively. 0 ≤ P(x) ≤ 1 Important remarks

5. For example: tossed a coin S={T,H} X01 P(X)

6. Example 5-1: Rolling a Die Construct a probability distribution for rolling a single die. Solution:

7. For example: tossed 2 coins S={TT,HT,TH,HH} X012 P(X)

8. Example 5-2: Tossing Coins Represent graphically the probability distribution for the sample space for tossing three coins. X=number of head.. Solution:

9. A probability distribution can be graph by using: a) Ogive b) Polygon c) Bar chart. ------------------------------------------------------------- A box contains 6 balls. One is numbered 2, three are numbered 3 and two are numbered 4. Construct a probability distribution for the numbers on the balls.

10. Mean, Variance, Standard Deviation, and Expectation

12. Example (5-5) + (5-9) : Rolling a Die Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of the number of spots that appear when a die is tossed..

13. Solution: mean:

14. Variance and s.d:

15. Example 5-8: Trips of 5 Nights or More The probability distribution shown represents the number of trips of five nights or more that American adults take per year. (That is, 6% do not take any trips lasting five nights or more, 70% take one trip lasting five nights or more per year, etc.) Find the mean..

16. Solution Solution : 16

17. Example 5-11: On Hold for Talk Radio A talk radio station has four telephone lines. If the host is unable to talk (i.e., during a commercial) or is talking to a person, the other callers are placed on hold. When all lines are in use, others who are trying to call in get a busy signal. The probability that 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 people will get through is shown in the distribution. Find the variance and standard deviation for the distribution.

18. Solution: 18

19. Expectation expected value expectation O The expected value, or expectation, of a discrete random variable of a probability distribution is the theoretical average of the variable. O The expected value is, by definition, the mean of the probability distribution.

20. One thousand tickets are sold at $1 each for a color television valued at $350. What is the expected value of the gain (مكسب) if you purchase one ticket? Solution :

21. WinLose Gain(X) $349-$1 Probability P(X) Note: This PowerPoint is only a summary and your main source should be the book. An alternate solution :

22. Example 5-13: Winning Tickets One thousand tickets are sold at $1 each for four prizes of $100, $50, $25, and $10. After each prize drawing, the winning ticket is then returned to the pool of tickets. What is the expected value if you purchase two tickets?

23. GainX ProbabilityP(X) $98$48$23$8-$2 Solution :

24. An alternate solution :

25. The Binomial Distribution

26. 5-3 The Binomial Distribution Many types of probability problems have only two possible outcomes or they can be reduced to two outcomes. Examples include: when a coin is tossed it can land on heads or tails, when a baby is born it is either a boy or girl, etc.

27. The Binomial Distribution binomial experiment The binomial experiment is a probability experiment that satisfies these requirements: 1.Each trial can have only two possible outcomes—success or failure. 2.There must be a fixed number of trials. 3.The outcomes of each trial must be independent of each other. 4.The probability of success must remain the same for each trial.

28. The number of outcome for each trail a binomial experiment is: a) 2 b) 1 c) 0 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Which of the following is a binomial experiment: a) Asking 200 people what kind of exercise they play. b) Asking 300 people if they playing exercise. c) Asking 200 people about their favorite drink.

29. ** Which of the following is not a binomial experiment? a) Rolling a die 40 times to see how many even number occur. b) Observe the gender of the babies born at a local hospital. c) Asking 100 people if they smoke. d) Tossing a coin 50 times to see how many heads occur.

30. Notation for the Binomial Distribution The symbol for the probability of success The symbol for the probability of failure The numerical probability of success The numerical probability of failure and P(F) = 1 – p = q The number of trials The number of successes P(S)P(S) P(F)P(F) p q P(S) = p n X Note that X = 0, 1, 2, 3,...,n

31. The Binomial Distribution In a binomial experiment, the probability of exactly X successes in n trials is

32. Mean, Variance and Standard Deviation for binomial

33. The mean, variance and SD of a variable that the binomial distribution can be found by using the following formulas:

34. A coin is tossed 3 times. Find the probability of getting exactly heads. Solution : Note: This PowerPoint is only a summary and your main source should be the book.

35. Example 5-16: Survey on Doctor Visits A survey found that one out of five Americans say he or she has visited a doctor in any given month. If 10 people are selected at random, find the probability that exactly 3 will have visited a doctor last month.

36. Solution:

37. Example 5-17: Survey on Employment A survey from Teenage Research Unlimited (Northbrook, Illinois) found that 30% of teenage consumers receive their spending money (يستلم مال إنفاقه) from part-time jobs. If 5 teenagers are selected at random, find the probability that at least 3 of them will have part-time jobs.

38. Solution:

39. Example 5-21: tossing a coin A coin is tossed 4 times Find the mean, variance and standard deviation of number of heads that will be obtained.

40. Example 5-22: Rolling a die A die is rolled 360 times, find the mean, variance and standerd deviation of the number of 4s that will be rolled.

41. Solution :

42. ** How many times a die is rolled when the mean of the numbers greater than 4 that will be rolled = 20? a)60

43. 1.A student takes a 3 questions multiple choices quiz with 4 choices for each question. If the student guesses (تخمين) at random on each question, What is probability that student gets exactly 2 question is wrong?

44. Revision

45. At a local university 62.3% of incoming first-year students have computers. If 3 students are selected at random, find the probability at least one has a computer. a) 0.946 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Using the probability distribution to answer a questions: ** What is the value of K ? a) 0.2 b) 0.3 ** What is the probability value of x=2? a) 0.2 b) 0.3 4321 X 0.2K0.30.2P(X)

46. A coin tossed 56 times. Answer the following questions: *1* the mean for the number of heads that will be tossed: a) 14 b) 28 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- *2* the variance for the number of tails that will be tossed: a) 14 b) 28 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- *3* the standard deviation for the number of tails that will be tossed: a) 14 b) 28

47. What is the value K would be needed to complete the following probability distribution: a) 0.32 b) 0.40 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- If a family has 3 children, find the probability distribution for the number of boys in a family: a) b) 4321 X 0.200.33K0.15P(X) 3210 X 1/83/8 2/8P(X) 3210 X 1/83/8 1/8P(X)

48. If we have the following probability distribution: Find the mean of the distribution: a) 5/4 b) 1/4 Find the variance of the distribution: a) 15/16 b) 16/18

49. Home work In the past year, 80% of businesses have eliminate jobs. If 6 businesses are selected at random, find the probability that at least 5 have eliminated jobs during the last year. a) 0.655 b) 0.233 c) 0.455

50. If 60% of all women are employed outside the home, find the probability that in a sample of 20 women, exactly 15 are not employed outside the home. a) 0.075 b) 0.925 c) 0.999 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- One thousand tickets are sold at $3 each for a PC value at $1600. What is the expected value of the gain if a person purchases one ticket? a) -$1.4 b) -$1.8 c) $1.8

51. The value of the mean for the previous probability distribution is: a) 0.7 b) 0.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- If X is discrete r.v with and Then the variance equal: a) 1.5 b) 2 210 X 0.30.10.5P(X)