1. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany HYDROCARE Actions 2.1Compilation of Meteorological Observations, 2.2Analysis of Variability and Extremes and 2.3Linking Observations, Global Analyses and Regional Climate Modeling Uwe Böhm, Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe, Hermann Österle Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany

2. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Compilation of Meteorological Observations  Supply of daily and monthly time series from PP8's database  Collection of data for the CADSES regions from external sources  Update of these data sets during the project duration  Provision of data analysis technology (basic check and completion) Deliverables Spatio-temporal homogeneous meteorological data records for statistical analysis and hydrological modelling Action 2.1

3. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Resources of Meteorological Time Series at PIK - Station Observations - Germany, daily data 1951-2003, 11 parameters ~ 260 climatological & 1400 precipitation stations (+ 750 ordered in addition for HYDROCARE at DWD) complete, homogeneous Global set of monthly data 1996-2006, 7 parameters 2200 stations / - incomplete - / Global set of daily data 1800...-2004, 10 parameters appr. 3.500 stations / - incomplete - / Action 2.1- Compilation of Meteorological Observations

4. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Resources of Meteorological Time Series at PIK - Gridded Data Sets - Global CRU-PIK set of monthly data 1901-2005, temperature and precipitation 0.5°*0.5° ERA40 daily data 1958-2004, temperature and precipitation 0.5°*0.5° Action 2.1- Compilation of Meteorological Observations

5. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Action 2.1- Compilation of Meteorological Observations Number of Meteorological Stations covering the CADSES Regions in PIK‘s Data Base CountryDaily /long series/Daily /short series, 1979-2004/ Monthly /1996-2005/ Poland12 /1961-1995/-10 Czech56 /1961-2003/-12 Slovakia-35 Hungary-217 Austria 6 /1901-2003/-9 Italy84112 Romania112314 Moldova1 /1901-2004/-1 Bulgaria-114 Greece5 /1955-1995/-9 Ukraine-West5 /1946-2004/-5

6. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Action 2.1- Compilation of Meteorological Observations Shortcomings of Meteorological Data for CADSES regions outside of Germany in PIK‘s Data Base Very limited number of stations Gaps and errors in the available data Time series inhomogeneities Suggested Solution supply of additional meteorological observation data from the project‘s participants Quality control and homogeneity analysis of observation time series, completion and homogenization using PIK’s statistical analysis technology Reconstruction of gridded daily time series based on ECMWF daily Re-Analyses (ERA40), CRU-PIK monthly data and daily observation

7. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Action 2.1- Compilation of Meteorological Observations Working Schedule Specific Task 20062007 123456789101112123456789101112 Setup of a common list of the requested parameters and length of time series supply of meteorological data from the project participants to PIK’s data base Quality control and homogeneity analysis Filling of gaps and homogenisation of time series Data sets update and technology provision

8. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Action 2.1- Compilation of Meteorological Observations Questionnaire Available meteorological data Coutry: Number of synoptic stations with digital daily data: Length of time series:fromto Parameters: Frequency of data set update: Conditions of use for providing the data to the HYDROCARE data base: Number of synoptic stations with digital monthly data: Length of time series:fromto Parameters: Frequency of data set update: Conditions of use for providing the data to the HYDROCARE data base: Contact person: E-mail: Please return the filled questionnaire to H.Österle or U. Böhm at PIK Questionnaire Available meteorological data Coutry: Number of synoptic stations with digital daily data: Length of time series:fromto Parameters: Frequency of data set update: Conditions of use for providing the data to the HYDROCARE data base: Number of synoptic stations with digital monthly data: Length of time series:fromto Parameters: Frequency of data set update: Conditions of use for providing the data to the HYDROCARE data base: Contact person: E-mail: Please return the filled questionnaire to H.Österle or U. Böhm at PIK

9. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records  Adaptation of statistical methodologies for data diagnosis  Compilation of a common data set for the CADSES regions  Analysis of data records for individual extreme indicators  Higher-order multivariate data analysis Deliverables Quantitative Indicators for climatic extremes, natural variability and trends Action 2.2

10. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Statistical Methodologies for Data Diagnosis Exceedance/shortfall thresholds Duration of an extreme Total number of occurence of an extreme Objective estmated extreme value range of a distribution Exceedance of long-term percentiles Drought Indices for European climates (e.g. Bhalme-Mooley Drough Index, Palmer Drought Severity Index, Standardized Precipitation Index,...)... Action 2.2 - Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records

11. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Combining observations and analyses to compile a gridded daily data set for air temperature and precipitation Adjustment of the precipitation frequency in the ERA40* ) data set to frequency in the precipitation observations Adaptation of the CRU/PIK data set temperature in mountainous regions to a higher-resolution regional orography (  10 km grid spacing) Relaxation of the ERA40 data on a monthly basis towards the CRU/PIK gridded data set * ) ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) – 40-year analyses Action 2.2 - Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records

12. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Higher-order multivariate data analysis non-hierarchical cluster analysis Multi-criteria extreme indices (e.g. potential yield loss, expected flood damage, …), depending on stakeholder feedback Other … approaches Action 2.2 - Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records

13. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Action 2.2 - Analysis of Variability and Extremes in Meteorological Records Working Schedule Specific Task 20062007 123456789101112123456789101112 Adaptation of statistical methodologies for data diagnosis Compilation of a common data set for the CADSES regions Analysis of data records for individual extreme indicators Higher-order multivariate data analysis

14. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Linking Observations, Global Analyses an Regional Climate Modeling  Compilation of forcing data for a regional climate model from analyses  Model evaluation using station observations and adaptation to the region  Reconstruction of past climatic conditions  Analysis of model results for extremes and their dynamics Deliverables Area-wide spatial homogeneous and high-resolution (~ 10 km) dynamic extreme indicators on a grid Action 2.3

15. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Action 2.3 - Linking Observations, Global Analyses an Regional Climate Modeling CLM – Model Region BALTEX, extended BALTEX

16. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Action 2.3 - Linking Observations, Global Analyses an Regional Climate Modeling Model setup for climate reconstructions over Europe 1)Model region:  “Extended BALTEX” region 2)Horizontal & vertical resolution  0.167° x 0.167° lat/lon (~ 18 km grid spacing) 3)Simulation period  01.01.1979 – 31.12.1993 4)Initial and boundary conditions  ECMWF re-analysis data (ERA15), updated 6-hourly 5)Output interval  6-hourly, scalable (internal time step 90 s)

17. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Action 2.3 - Linking Observations, Global Analyses an Regional Climate Modeling Validation of climate reconstructions 15-year mean - annual total precipitation 2500 2000 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 700 500 300 100 -5 0 -15-10 10 5 15 10 0 -10 -20 [mm/year] 10 0 -10 -20 -5 0 -15-10 10 5 15 CLM 2.0 CRU (high res. Europe)

18. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Action 2.3 - Linking Observations, Global Analyses an Regional Climate Modeling Model area CADSES climate reconstructions and consortium runs 0.165° horiz. resolution and beyond

19. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Action 2.3 - Linking Observations, Global Analyses an Regional Climate Modeling Working Schedule Specific Task 20062007 123456789101112123456789101112 Compilation of forcing data for a regio- nal climate model from analyses Model evaluation using station observations and adaptation to the region Reconstruction of past climatic condi- tions Analysis of model results for extremes and their dynamics

20. HYDROCARE Kick-Off Meeting 13/14 February, 2006, Potsdam, Germany Thank You !