1. National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center/ Weather Forecast Office Honolulu, Hawaii Hurricane Preparedness - 2009 National Weather Service Central Pacific Hurricane Center/ Weather Forecast Office Honolulu, Hawaii Hurricane Preparedness - 2009 Jim Weyman Director/Meteorologist in Charge Jim Weyman Director/Meteorologist in Charge

2. Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season Season: June 1 to November 30 –Tropical Cyclones can occur in any month Central Pacific Average per Year –4-5 Tropical Cyclones 1971 to 2008: 163 Tropical Cyclones –36% Hurricanes, 28% Tropical Storms, 36% Tropical Depressions Season: June 1 to November 30 –Tropical Cyclones can occur in any month Central Pacific Average per Year –4-5 Tropical Cyclones 1971 to 2008: 163 Tropical Cyclones –36% Hurricanes, 28% Tropical Storms, 36% Tropical Depressions

3. Terminology Tropical Cyclone: Generic term. Includes Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes. Tropical Depression: Winds of 38 mph or less. Assigned a number (e.g., TD-01C) Tropical Storm: Winds of 39 to 73 mph. Assigned a name. Hurricane: Winds of 74 mph or higher. Five Categories. Category 5 >155mph Tropical Cyclone: Generic term. Includes Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes. Tropical Depression: Winds of 38 mph or less. Assigned a number (e.g., TD-01C) Tropical Storm: Winds of 39 to 73 mph. Assigned a name. Hurricane: Winds of 74 mph or higher. Five Categories. Category 5 >155mph

4. CategoryWinds One75-95 mph (65-82 kts) Two96-110 mph (83-95 kts) Three111-130 mph (96-113 kts) Four131-155 mph (114-135 kts) Five155+ mph (135+ kts) CategoryWinds One75-95 mph (65-82 kts) Two96-110 mph (83-95 kts) Three111-130 mph (96-113 kts) Four131-155 mph (114-135 kts) Five155+ mph (135+ kts) Saffir/Simpson Scale

5. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Watches and Warnings Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area…usually within 48* hours. Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area…usually within 36* hours Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area…usually within 48* hours. Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are expected within the warning area…usually within 36* hours * Change starting with 2009 season in Central Pacific.

7. Sea Surface Temperatures 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area Weak Vertical Wind Shear Low Level Disturbance Region of upper level divergence/outflow Sea Surface Temperatures 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area Weak Vertical Wind Shear Low Level Disturbance Region of upper level divergence/outflow Recipe for Tropical Cyclones

9. L L H H L L H H 5,000 ft/850 mb 40,000 ft/200 mb HeatHeat HeatHeat HeatHeat HeatHeat Typical cruising altitude of commercial airplane Surface Effect of Vertical Wind Shear

10. Central Pacific Hurricanes 40-Year Track History

11. Tropical Cyclone Impacts Extreme wind conditions Iniki: wind gusts greater that 150 mph Iwa: wind gusts greater that 120 mph Flash Flooding Iniki: 8 to 10 inches over short time frame TD 1-C: 14+ inches upslope of Hilo Storm Surge, High surf Iniki: 30 to 35 ft surf on Kauai, high water marks up to 25 ft, 3 to 4 ft storm surge Estelle: 10 to 20 ft surf even though closest passage was 120 nm south of Big Island. Extreme wind conditions Iniki: wind gusts greater that 150 mph Iwa: wind gusts greater that 120 mph Flash Flooding Iniki: 8 to 10 inches over short time frame TD 1-C: 14+ inches upslope of Hilo Storm Surge, High surf Iniki: 30 to 35 ft surf on Kauai, high water marks up to 25 ft, 3 to 4 ft storm surge Estelle: 10 to 20 ft surf even though closest passage was 120 nm south of Big Island.

12. Tropical Storm Kika 7-12 August 2008 First and only tropical cyclone in Central Pacific Basin for 2008 Peaked at minimal Tropical Storm strength Remained Well South of Hawaiian Islands No impacts to Hawaiian Islands and no significant impacts to other Pacific Islands First and only tropical cyclone in Central Pacific Basin for 2008 Peaked at minimal Tropical Storm strength Remained Well South of Hawaiian Islands No impacts to Hawaiian Islands and no significant impacts to other Pacific Islands

13. Factors Affecting Tropical Cyclone Forecasts for Central Pacific El Nino (Warmer) – Possible Impacts  More Active Hurricane Seasons  Greater Chance of Late Season Hurricanes La Nina (Cooler) and Neutral Conditions  Tendencies of Normal to Less Active Hurricane Seasons El Nino (Warmer) – Possible Impacts  More Active Hurricane Seasons  Greater Chance of Late Season Hurricanes La Nina (Cooler) and Neutral Conditions  Tendencies of Normal to Less Active Hurricane Seasons

14. Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones 5 Most Active Seasons for Period 1971-2008 YearTCHTSTD 199411 5 3 3(El Nino Year) 199211 3 3 5(El Nino Year) 198210 4 6 0(El Nino Year) 1997 9 0 5 4(El Nino Year) 1985 8 4 2 2(La Nina Year) YearTCHTSTD 199411 5 3 3(El Nino Year) 199211 3 3 5(El Nino Year) 198210 4 6 0(El Nino Year) 1997 9 0 5 4(El Nino Year) 1985 8 4 2 2(La Nina Year)

15. 2009 Hurricane Season Outlook 80% near to below normal season Seasonal Forecast 3-5 Tropical Cyclones 20% chance of above normal season –6+ Tropical Cyclones if moderate-strong El Nino develops Based Upon –The ongoing conditions of suppressed activity since 1995 –Near normal ocean temperatures and then development of El Niño or warmer than normal temperatures during the later part of the season. Have to prepare same way regardless of outlook 80% near to below normal season Seasonal Forecast 3-5 Tropical Cyclones 20% chance of above normal season –6+ Tropical Cyclones if moderate-strong El Nino develops Based Upon –The ongoing conditions of suppressed activity since 1995 –Near normal ocean temperatures and then development of El Niño or warmer than normal temperatures during the later part of the season. Have to prepare same way regardless of outlook

17. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Text Products Tropical Weather Outlook Tropical Cyclone Discussion Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory Hurricane Local Statements Tropical Weather Outlook Tropical Cyclone Discussion Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory Hurricane Local Statements

18. Central Pacific Hurricane Center Tropical Weather Outlook Issued 4 times daily during hurricane season – June 1 through November 30 –4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, 10 PM HST The Tropical Weather Outlook provides a summary of possible or anticipated tropical cyclone development and other areas of interest Can give you several days “heads up” before a tropical cyclone actually develops Issued 4 times daily during hurricane season – June 1 through November 30 –4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, 10 PM HST The Tropical Weather Outlook provides a summary of possible or anticipated tropical cyclone development and other areas of interest Can give you several days “heads up” before a tropical cyclone actually develops

19. Preparedness – Now Know safe evacuation routes and shelter locations Emergency and evacuation kit Food and drinking water for 5 to 7 days Strengthen home Material to protect windows and doors Insurance policy Other – pets, boats, etc. Know safe evacuation routes and shelter locations Emergency and evacuation kit Food and drinking water for 5 to 7 days Strengthen home Material to protect windows and doors Insurance policy Other – pets, boats, etc.

20. Emergency Plans Individuals/Families – 7 days Continuity of Operations Businesses Gather information about hazards Meet with your Company/family to create/review plans Individuals/Families – 7 days Continuity of Operations Businesses Gather information about hazards Meet with your Company/family to create/review plans

21. Questions ? National Weather Service 2525 Correa Road Suite 250 Honolulu, HI 96822-2219 973-5280 james.weyman@noaa.gov 271-6238 www.weather.gov/hawaii www.weather.gov/cphc National Weather Service 2525 Correa Road Suite 250 Honolulu, HI 96822-2219 973-5280 james.weyman@noaa.gov 271-6238 www.weather.gov/hawaii www.weather.gov/cphc