1. The Policy Process: Decision-Making

2. Decision Making Models
Rational Model
Incremental Model
Organisational Process Model
Bureaucratic Political Bargaining Model
Garbage Can Model
Rational model  This is the classical, scientific approach to decision-making which views the process as essentially orderly and rational. A problem is defined and isolated, information is gathered, alternatives identified, and an end is established. 
Incremental model  This approach suggests that there are interrelated decision processes which may be depicted as a sequence of steps, or series, comprising:  
an identification phase; 
an alternatives development phase, and 
a selection phase. 
A number of factors prevent undisturbed progression from one routine to another, and instead create a dynamic, open system subjected to interference, feedback loops and dead ends. 
Organisational process model  This model recognises a real difference between an individual decision-maker and an organisation, emphasising the centrality of routines and procedures in reducing the effects of uncertainty. 
Bureaucratic Political bargaining model  Underlying this model is the view that individuals, groups and organisations have self-defined interests to protect. When faced with a decision, participants in the process focus on those aspects which they perceive as affecting their own interests and, consequently, rather than a single strategic problem requiring a solution, a range of linked issues compete for attention. 
Garbage can model  This describes decision-making processes in organisations which are characterised by ambiguity, where objectives are ill-defined or inconsistent for individual decision makers. The model applies when resource constraints are high and it encapsulates the complex environment which surrounds organisational decision-making. 

3. Assessing the Rational Model
·        “Rational decision-making involves the selection of the alternative which will maximize the decision-makers values, the selection being made following a comprehensive analysis of alternatives and their consequences” (Hill, 1997:99)

4. Assessing the Rational Model
Intelligence gathering – gathering together all of the facts;
Identifying all options and considers them in detail;
Assessing consequences of options – costs and benefits of different policy options;
Relating consequences to values – relate to a set of criteria or preference ordering procedure;
Choosing a preferred option
(*Adapted from Hogwood & Gunn, 1984)
·        On the one hand you have the case of the 'economic man', who makes rational, informal decisions based on the information that he has acquired. On the other hand you have the case of social scientists like Freud, Pareto, Lasswell, who equate human behaviour with things like passion, instinct, subconsciousness and anxieties.
·        Simon sees it as a middle ground between the two things. He notes that analysis should aim to accommodate both intellect and effect'. (Simon, Administrative Behaviour).
·        He develops a concept called 'bounded rationality' - rationality which is limited but not irrational'.

5. Limitations to Rational Model
·   Incomplete and fragmented nature of knowledge
·    Consequences that cannot be known, so that the decision-makers relies on capacity to make valuations
· Limits of attention: problems must be dealt with in a serial, on at a time basis
·  Limits on the storage capacity of the human mind.
·  Human beings as creatures of habit and routine.
·  Human beings with limited attention spans
(*adapted from Parsons p.277)
·      Development of Bounded Rationality
·        Bounded Rationality = Simons ‘Administrative Man’ in comparison to his earlier ‘economic man’
·        Administrative Man makes his decisions that are not derived from an examination of all of the alternatives.
·        Motivated by satisficing rather than maximizing – ‘its good enough rather than the best’.

6. Incrementalism
Portrayed as the principle alternative to the rational decision making approach.
The theory is that decisions are not made in the light of clear-cut objectives, but through small adjustments dictated by changing circumstances.
Lindblom terms this model ‘the science of muddling through’.

7. Incrementalism proceeds through a succession of incremental changes
Involves mutual adjustment and negotiation
Excludes by accident rather than by systematic or deliberate exclusion
Policy is not made once and for all
Not theoretically driven
Superior to a ‘futile attempt at superhuman comprehensiveness’
Test of a good decision is agreement and process rather than goal attainment or meeting objectives
Involves some degree of trial and error (*Adapted from Parsons P )
 Criticisms of the Incremental Model:
·        Criticised as profoundly conservative (by Dror), in that it justifies a bias against innovation and in favour of inertia. (e.g. Policy makers who embrace incrementalism are more likely to be concerned with day-to-day problems that with indulging in long-term visionary thinking).
·        Sheds little light on those decisions which are radical in nature.
·        Fails to take account of power and bias (Etzioni 1967)
·        Present policies may be so unsatisfactory that merely tinkering with them is useless.
* Like Simon, Lindblom reviewed his early arguments. In 1959, Lindblom was the pluralist, conservative advocate of incremental decision-making as the most effective mode of policy-making but still now he rejects the idea that knowledge, rationality, expertise, policy analysis, or social science can do much to improve matters.
Is there any middle ground between rationalism and incrementalism as a decision making model?
Etzioni proposed the idea of ‘mixed scanning’ which attempts to bridge the gap between the two.

8. Mixed Scanning
·     Based on early weather forecasting and observation techniques.
·      Allows for decision-making to be carried out in two distinct phases.
·      Decision-makers broadly evaluate (scan) all of the available policy options in terms of their effectiveness in meeting pre-existing objectives.
·      A more incremental approach is adopted as the details of a selected policy are reviewed.
·      This model is both a description of the realities of decision-making strategies in a number of fields and also a model for better decision-making.

9. Organisational Model
· Highlights the impact on decisions of the values, assumptions, and regular patters of behaviour that are found in any large organisation.
Decisions seem to reflect the entrenched culture of the government department or agency that makes them.
· However, this theory ignores the influence that political leaders may have on the organisations which may be foolish.
·        Rational and incremental models are both ‘black box’ theories of decision making.
·        Neither model pays attention to the structure of the policy making process and the effect that the structure has on the resulting decisions.
·        Bureaucratic/organisation models try to get inside the black box by highlighting the degree to which process influences product.

10. Bureaucratic Model
·    Highlights the impact on decisions of different departments and agencies pursuing different interests and having to bargain as a result.
·     It may be too simplistic to say that actors hold views that are based on their own decisions

11. New Labour
Drive towards evidenced based approach to policy decision-making
Is this an attempt at rationalism?
Constitutional reforms in the UK
Is this indicative of incrementalism?
·        The notion of evidence based policy and practice fits well with the rational decision-making model of the policy process.
·        New Labour has adopted an ‘evidence based policy’ approach to governing.
·        See the 1999 White Paper ‘Modernising Government which states,
“This government expects more of policy makers. More new ideas, more willingness to question inherited ways of doing things, better use of evidence and research in policy making and better focus on polices that will deliver long term goals.”
·        New Labour stance – anti-ideological, pragmatic, suspicious of the many established influences on policy, particularly within the Civil Service, sought to open up policy thinking to outsiders.
·        New Labour mantra – ‘what matter is what works’ and evidence based policy is a reflection of the research which shows what works.
·        Evidence based policy makes two assumptions –
o       That Government possesses the knowledge, or has the confidence to identify evidence appropriate to the particular policy it wants to make
o       That policy based on evidence will be ‘better’ because it will be more objective or factual. In other words rationality can be asserted.

12. Case Studies
 Graham T. Allison’s influential study, ESSENCE OF DECISION: Explaining the Cuban Missile Crisis (1971) /ALL
The Impact of Devolution on Education Policy:
GM Crops and Foods: Evidence, Policy and Practice in the UK
Allison investigates the Cuban missile crisis through the lenses of three models in turn by asking three simple questions:
Why did the Soviet Union decide to place offensive missiles in Cuba? 2. Why did the United States respond to the missile deployment with a blockade? 3. Why did the Soviet Union withdraw the missiles?
Seminar Case Study I: The Impact of Devolution on Education Policy: a case study (for next week)
Consider the case study provided and try to answer the following questions.
The rational model is characterised by a linear process wherein there is a logical relationship between research and the policy making process. Discuss in relation to the case selected.
Policy –making has been characterised as ‘disjointed incrementalism’ and the ‘science of muddling through’. Does these analyses have any relevance for your case study?
Seminar Case Study II: GM Crops and Foods: Evidence, Policy and Practice in the UK (for next week)
Consider the case study provided and try to answer the following question.
How ‘rational’ is the evidence base on which GM policy decisions are being founded, if at all?