1. Analysing the reasons for the end of the Cold War L/O – To analyse and evaluate the reasons why the Cold War ended how and when it did

2. Analysing Causes When writing history, especially for essay questions about the causes of events, you need to go beyond saying ‘this led to’. You need to explain how and why one cause influenced another. Each event has a multiplicity of causes (not all of them are relevant!) and historians try to explain the most important or significant causes in order to make sense of the past. To do this, you need to think about the relative importance of each cause in the chain of causation leading up to the event in question. What impact did each cause have on other causes and the event itself?

3. Analysing Causes By visualising causation as a three- dimensional spider’s web rather than a linear chain of events, you can begin to see how all causes are connected. The hard bit is in thinking about which causes were essential and necessary for the event to have occurred and which causes were merely sufficient but not absolutely necessary for it to have happened.

4. Analysing Causes Another way of thinking about causes is to visualise them as doorways. When certain causes occur, they open up whole new pathways in which a range of new events and outcomes could occur – like branches on a tree. Other events actually close down pathways along which events could happen. The more important causes actually narrow down the possible outcomes, going beyond merely making an event possible, to making it more definite to happen.

5. Analysing Causes One way to help you determine the most important cause(s) is to think counter- factually. Would this event have occurred when and how it did without this cause? If it still would have happened like it did without this cause, then surely that tells you that cause isn’t really that significant. However if the event would have been fundamentally different or would have occurred at a vastly different time without this cause, then that must tell you that it is a very important cause because it determined certain aspects of that event.

6. Analysing Causes For instance, without the defeat of Germany in WW1 and its humiliating post-war settlement, it is highly unlikely that Hitler would have risen to power in Germany because Germans would have no compelling reason to vote for Hitler. So we could call WW1 an important ‘enabling’ cause in Hitler’s rise to power. However, it didn’t determine he would inevitably come to power. Alone, it doesn’t account for all the other contributing factors involved.

7. Analysing Causes By ranking causes in a list of importance and then thinking about the causal connections and links between them, you can begin to see the inter-connected nature of causes and begin to narrow down what is more or less significant. Making hierarchies, drawing spider diagrams, concept maps and timelines are all ways to do this. By doing this, it is then easier to write a good thesis statement in your essays – you know what you want to say about each cause!

8. Analysing Causes The final problem with causation is in how to write about it. You need to think carefully about the form of words you use to describe causal relationships: Some words can describe determining relationships like: resulted in, defeated, dependent on, created, forced, controlled. Others can describe enabling relationships like: influenced, contributed to, enabled, assisted, aided, supported, exacerbated

9. Afghanistan 1979-89, Costs, ‘Vietnam Effect’, Military Failures Geneva 85, Reykjavik 86, Washington 87, Moscow 88, Malta 89 – INF Treaty Summit Meetings Little growth, No consumer goods, lack of jobs, absenteeism, inefficient, imports food, low oil prices Economic Stagnation Hungary removes border in May, Solidarity wins Elections in June, Berlin Wall/Velvet Rev. in Nov Events of 1989 Zero Option, SDI, Containment, Evil Empire, Increased Defence Spending, Stealth Bomber, Trident Role of Reagan Self-doubt in leaders, failure to beat capitalism, Alcoholism, Anti-Social behavior, Criticism Ideological & Social Malaise in Soviet Bloc Glasnost, Perestroika, Democratisation, 1988 UN Speech, Refusal to Use Force, Visit to Honecker 89 Role of Gorbachev Solidarity in Poland, Influence of Catholic Church, New Forum in East Germany, Civic Forum in Czecho Nationalist Movements

10. Discussion – Why did the Cold War end? Was it due to internal changes within the USSR or due to external pressures which forced changed? Was it Reagan’s victory or Gorbachev’s? Did Reagan’s tough policies cause the end of the war or merely accelerate changes? Was it Reagan’s tough policies that led to the end of the war or his conversion to cooperation after 1984? Were Gorbachev’s policies clearly planned or was he merely reacting to problems? Did long-term problems within the USSR mean that its collapse was inevitable, or just more likely? Did individuals shape events or were they shaped by events?

11. Discussion – When did the Cold War end? 1.President Reagan in Moscow, December 1988, when he said he no longer believed in the ‘evil empire’ 2.Gorbachev’s speech to the UN in December 1988, when he stated that ‘freedom of choice is… universal and should know no exceptions [in reference to Eastern Europe] 3.Malta Summit, 2/3 December 1989, when Gorbachev recognised the US as a ‘European power’ and Eduard Shevardnadze said that the Cold War was ‘buried at the bottom of the Mediterranean’. 4.A reunified Germany joins NATO, 3 October 1990, symbolising the end of the reunification process. Condoleezza Rice called it ‘VE Day two’. 5.Warsaw Pact disbanded, 25 February 1991 – there were no longer ‘two opposing camps’. 6.Resignation of Gorbachev, 25 December 1991 – there was no longer a Communist Party and the USSR was disbanded. 7.President Bush’s Christmas Day address, 1991 – Bush stated that the ‘confrontation is over’.