1. 1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 12, 2012 For more information, visit: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

2. 2 Outline Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions Monsoon Prediction Summary Climatology

3. 3 Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days During the past 90 days, rainfall is above normal over much of northern India, Korea and southeast Asia including Indonesia and Philippines. However, it was either spotty and below normal over southern India, southern China particularly over the provinces of Yunnan and Guangxi, Japan, Laos, Cambodia, and southeastern Australia.

4. 4 Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days The 30-day precipitation is below normal over almost all countries bordering South China Sea, except parts of maritime Indonesian islands. From the first of October thru the 7 th of November, India Met. Dept. is reporting that the NE monsoon rainfall amounts over South India is about 8% below their long term normal.

5. 5 Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days Since the tropical cyclone Nilam in the week before, rainfall over south India this past week is below normal. However, parts of southeast China got some good rainfall amounts from a weak troughing in the westerlies over that region.

6. 6 Rainfall Time Series over 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

7. 7 Atmospheric Circulation

8. 8 NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9. 9 Summary During the past 90 days, rainfall is above normal over much of northern India, Korea and southeast Asia including Indonesia and Philippines. However, it was either spotty and below normal over southern India, southern China particularly over the provinces of Yunnan and Guangxi, Japan, Laos, Cambodia, and southeastern Australia. The 30-day precipitation is below normal over almost all countries bordering South China Sea, except parts of maritime Indonesian islands. From the first of October thru the 7 th of November, India Met. Dept. is reporting that the NE monsoon rainfall amounts over South India is about 8% below their long term normal. Since the tropical cyclone Nilam in the week before, rainfall over south India this past week is below normal. However, parts of southeast China got some good rainfall amounts from a weak troughing in the westerlies over that region. For the upcoming couple of weeks the NCEP/GFS model is again forecasting below normal rainfall over south India and continued above normal rainfall over southeast China.

10. 10 Demise of the Asian Monsoon

11. 11 Onset of the Australian Monsoon

12. 12 Climatology