1. of Europe to Climate Change
Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation
of Europe to Climate Change
The JRC research framework in support to EU CC policy
Carlo Lavalle
European Commission – Joint Research Centre

2. EU Climate Change Policy at the lowest cost & greatest benefit.
Reducing
Climate Change
Risk by
MITIGATION +
ADAPTATION
Reducing &
Avoiding
GHG emissions
Reducing
Exposure &
Vulnerability
at the lowest cost & greatest benefit.
Within the frame work of its mission, the JRC aims to develop reference knowledge, based on multi-disciplinary expertise, to ease the development of an EU climate change policy.

3. Adaptation: What can be done?
Understanding and prediction of Climate Change.
Special attention to extrem events
Quantification of impacts at the continental, regional, and local levels (risk analysis)
Historical trend analyses
Data modelling
Coupling with Regional Climate Models
Analysis of adaptation measures
strategies to prevent and reduce impacts and damages
Management and preparedness (include modelling and scenario preparation).
Focus on early warning systems
Integration of all aspects related to adaptation to climate change into strategies for sustainable development.

4. Risk assessment for Natural Hazards The Approach
Risk = hazard x exposure x vulnerability
Exposure
Population
Infrastructure
Settlements
Ecological assets ….
Vulnerability
Hazard
Hazard degree
Flood
Drought
Forest Fires
Heatwaves
GDP/ capita
Planning regulations
Protection measures
Warning systems
Insurance mechanism
Access to facilities …
Method of analysis
Risk

5. EU Flood Risk Maps Exposure Vulnerability flood hazard
Flood depth maps for different return-periods
High Flood Risk Areas
Annual Average Damage
Flood Risk Index

6. EU Forest Fire Risk Maps
About 65,000 wildfires / year in EU
About 500,000 hectares burned / year in EU
Data from Member States (the EU Forest Fire Data Base, built upon the Common Core Database) + Model (European Forest Fire Information System) + Observed fires (remote sensing)

7. Vulnerable Population Exposure
Heatwave Risk Map
Heatwave Extent +
Population Exposed +
Population Number
Vulnerable Population Group
Vulnerable Population Exposure
No. of people over 65 years exposed to HUMIDEX exceeding 35 during June, July and August 2003

8. European Drought Hazard Maps
very wet
very dry
wetter
drier
normal
Soil Water Stress from ECMWF ERA 40 meteo data 07/ /2002
daily top soil moisture
daily top soil moisture anomaly

9. Impacts on Agriculture
Shift of flowering season
Growing season lenght

10. Assessing future risks
Flood & drought risk and climate change
exposure
vulnerability
high-resolution
climate information x
European data on soils, land cover, river basins, ...
flood hazard
European study on flood risk and climate change at JRC. Developed an integrated framework that combines high-resolution regional climate data provided by DMI and MPI with the spatially distributed physically-based hydrological model LISFLOOD to derive flood hazard. The model is fed with European datasets on soil data, land cover and river catchments, and data from MS on river dimensions, reservoirs, etc. The flood hazard map is then combined with information about the vulnerability and exposure to derive current and future flood risk.
What information used for vulnerability (now and ideally)? Scenarios for vulnerability?
What information used for exposure (now and ideally)? Scenarios for exposure?
How are the three terms actually combined? Simple product?
We do not intend to provide same level of detail as MS (because this is foreseen in the Floods Directive), but try to draw up an overall picture at the European scale using a uniform method.
LISFLOOD =
flood risk
Member States data on river dimensions, discharges, ...

11. Climate change effect on river discharge: annual average and 100-year floods
seasonal changes in mean discharge
Simulations with LISFLOOD driven by HIRHAM – HadAM3H/ HadCM3 (data from Prudence, DMI)

12. Climate change effect on low flows: change of mean annual 7-day minimum discharge
Simulations with LISFLOOD driven by HIRHAM – HadAM3H/ HadCM3 (data from Prudence, DMI)

13. Forest Fire Danger Fire Severity Index
(Climate data from Prudence – DMI)

14. Climate Change Hazard: Heat Wave
Control Period
Scenario Period
Heat wave event defined by HWDI of 7 continuous days during summer period
Based on data from Danish Climate Centre (DMI)
within the framework of the EU-project PRUDENCE

15. Monetary impacts of Climate Change Scenarios
Change in annual precipitation
Simulated flooded areas
Flooded areas statistics
Cost estimation made per land use classes, using approx. deoth-damage curves
Next steps: include land use simulations and adaptation measures
Tentative estimate upper Danube:
Current Climate: 100 Billion Euro damage
A2 Scenario ~40% increase in total damage
Pilot area in the Upper Danube – Preliminary draft results

16. Forest vulnerability and suitability
Current and future habitat suitability distribution of European Common Beech (Fagus sylvatica, Fagaceae)
Regression tree Analysis – Vegetation suitability model
IPCC SRES A1B Scenario, vegetation shift projection under 710ppm CO2 , +2.8ºC
Preliminary draft results

17. The aim of adaptation: Reduce the risk
Hazard
p =1 (100yr)
Vulnerability
Risk + =
Adaptation
Low vulnerability
Low risk

18. Integrated land management tools
>10 years
5 years
1-2 years
3-30 days
Few hours
Alert
Early Warning
Forecast
Regulatory plans
Spatial Planning
Forest Management
Land Management
EFFIS
EFAS
EDO
MOLAND
LISFLOOD
EFICS
EFAS=European Flood Alert System
EDO=European Drought Observatory
EFICS=European Forest Inform. and Comm. System
EFFIS=European Forest Fire Information System
MOLAND=Monitoring Land Use Dynamics
LISFLOOD=Grid-based catchment model
Component of EU Forest Focus
Territorial Integration

19. European Flood Alert System EFAS
Expert Knowledge of
Member States
EU Flood GIS
Europ. Data Layers
Meteo -Data
Realtime H-Q data
Historical Data
Static Data
EFAS Reports
min area = 50 km²

20. Soil moisture 7 day trend
EDO European Drought Observatory
Soil moisture 7 day trend
wetter drier

21. Floods and scenario modeling Elbe catchment
Land use
Reference
Land Use
Polders
Reservoirs
10% reduction

22. European Forest Fire Information System EFFIS
Meteorological Risk
Vegetation Stress Risk
Structural Risk
Fire Potential Index

23. Damage assessment Floods and industrial installations
Forest Fires and NATURA 2000 sites

24. Conclusions – Next steps at JRC
Key Scientific Challenges:
include other SRES scenarios and RCMs
better quantification of current and future vulnerability
development of high-resolution land use scenarios
model validation with high-quality observations & data sets
formal treatment of uncertainty in the processing chain
Opportunities:
Direct inputs to EU policies (e.g. White paper on adaptation)
Participation in experts’ networks
Collaboration with MS organisations