1. Receive-Accept-Sample Model an information-processing model GV917

2. How do Citizens acquire information and convert it into public opinion? Two Definitions: 1. Considerations: any reason that might induce an individual to decide a political issue one way or the other. Considerations, thus, are a compound of cognition and affect—that is, a belief concerning an object and an evaluation of the belief. 2. Political messages: a. Persuasive messages: arguments or images providing a reason for taking a position or point of view; if accepted by an individual, they become considerations. b. Cueing messages: consist of ‘contextual information’ about the ideological or partisan implications of a persuasive message. They enable citizens to perceive relationships between the persuasive messages they receive and their political dispositions, which in turn permits them to respond critically to the persuasive messages.

3. Axioms of RAS Model A1. Reception Axiom. The greater a person’s level of cognitive engagement with an issue, the more likely he or she is to be exposed to and comprehend—in a word, to receive—political messages concerning that issue. A2. Resistance Axiom. People tend to resist arguments that are inconsistent with their political predispositions, but they do so only to the extent that they possess the contextual information necessary to perceive a relationship between the message and their predispositions. A3. Accessibility Axiom. The more recently a consideration has been called to mind or thought about, the less time it takes to retrieve that consideration or related considerations from memory and bring them to the top of the head for use. A4. Response Axiom. Individuals answer survey questions by averaging across the considerations that are immediately salient or accessible to them.

4. “True attitudes” vs “Opinion statements” The survey responses that people make within the proposed model may reasonably be described as attitudes or opinions, in that they represent people’s true feelings at the moment of answering a given survey question; they could not, however, be described as “true attitudes,” in the technical sense of the term, because survey responses are not assumed to represent anything more than a single aspect of people’s feelings toward a given attitude object. Opinion statements, as conceived in this model, are the outcome of a process in which people receive new information, decide whether to accept it, and then sample at the moment of answering questions.

5. Measuring ‘Considerations’ – The 2005 Pre and Post Election Surveys for BES What do you think is the most important problem facing the country at the present time? Please write in: ___________________________________

6. The Reception Axiom Many issues or considerations are salient to the public at any one time The Reception Axiom means that people will pay attention to new information about the issue they think is most important to them during an election campaign This new information may or may not change their minds, but the issue should still remain salient to them So a salient issue at the start of an election campaign should still be salient at the end – But is it?

7. Most Important Issue in the Pre-election BES survey in 2005

8. Six Most Salient Issues in the Pre-election Survey in 2005

9. Most Important Issue in the Post-election BES survey in 2005

10. The same six issues in the Post-Election Survey

11. Changes in Issue Priorities, Pre and Post Election Surveys

12. The Implications for the Reception Axiom 55 per cent of people who chose one of the top six salient issues in the pre-election survey chose the same issue in the post-election survey This does not measure all the ‘considerations’ in people’s minds – only the most important one. But it shows how the saliency of considerations can vary quite a lot over time – particularly during an election campaign The Reception Axiom suggests that an issue should remain salient – but there is a lot of change in perceptions of saliency We don’t know from this if the issue ceases to be salient for the 45 per cent who change their minds, but clearly receptivity can change as the issue priorities change But the top two salient issues in the pre election survey (immigration and the NHS) showed a lot more stability than the bottom two (Education and Europe) – saliency promotes stability.

13. The Resistance Axiom People will resist arguments that are inconsistent with their predispositions – but only if they think the message is relevant to their considerations As we have seen in the 2005 election immigration and asylum seeking were the most important issues both before and after the election If we focus on respondents who thought immigration and asylum seeking was the most important issue in the pre-election survey, then the Labour partisans among them should be less critical of the government on this issue compared with others Why? Because they are more predisposed to support ‘their’ government – they will resist criticism of it.

14. Attitudes to Government Performance on Asylum Seekers for those who thought the issue most salient in the Pre-election Survey

15. How Partisanship influences Attitudes to Asylum Seeking in 2005

16. Implications for the Resistance Axiom The people who attach great importance to immigration/asylum-seeking do so because they are worried about it, which makes them critical of the government However, a predisposition to support the government as measured by Labour partisanship mitigates the criticisms quite a bit.

17. The Accessibility Axiom Recent ‘top of the head’ information should be very important, particularly for people who are not very interested in politics and so have few considerations in their minds During the 2005 election the Conservatives made a lot of the immigration issue – so Conservative partisans who weren’t that interested in the election campaign should have been quick to cite immigration as a key issue because it was at the ‘top of their heads’

18. How interested and uninterested Conservatives Reacted to Immigration in the 2005 Election Campaign Note: The Figures measure the percentages who were stable in their selection of immigration as the most important issue before and after the election

19. Implications for the Accessibility Axiom For those interested in politics both Conservatives and non- Conservatives were equally stable in their choice of immigration as the most important issue in the pre and post surveys (58% and 57%) However, for those not interested in politics Conservatives were significantly more stable in their choice of immigration (76%) than non-Conservatives (70%) though both were more likely to cite the issue than the interested Why? Because the uninterested Conservatives used the most recent ‘top of the head’ considerations when answering the question by following their party’s lead Interested Conservatives were less likely to do this because they had more considerations in their minds when responding to the question.

20. The Response Axiom Individuals average across the considerations they have in mind when responding to questions If people have lots of considerations in their minds because they are interested in politics and in the election, then their responses should be relatively stable – they are averaging across a lot of information – and it is harder to change many bits of information all at once If people have few considerations in their minds because they are not interested in politics then their responses should be relatively unstable – they are averaging across very few bits of information and so their positions can easily change.

21. Response Stability and Interest in the Election

22. Implications for the Response Axiom Opinions are more stable among those interested in politics for Law & Order, Education, NHS and the Economy than opinions for those not interested in politics But opinions are less stable among those interested in politics for Immigration and Europe As the discussion of the Accessibility Axiom showed the latter could be explained by the campaign – the Conservatives concentrated on immigration in particular but were also Euro-sceptic and so the issue remained salient for those not interested in politics

23. What Difference Does Engagement Make? The AV Referendum of 2011

24. The AV Referendum 2011 The Likelihood of Voting in the Referendum

25. The Likelihood of Voting in the Referendum by Levels of Interest

26. Conclusions The different axioms in the RAS model lead to different predictions about how people will process and use information depending on their predispositions and the context in which it appears An election campaign makes politics salient for most people since they pay attention to it But some are not interested in the election and they react differently to new information in comparison with those who are interested. Levels of Interest in the AV Referendum of 2011 varied a lot and these had big effects on who was likely to vote