1. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari A FIR & Sub-mm View on Galaxy Formation & Evolution Taking Stock of Spitzer & SCUBA Planning for Herschel & SCUBA2 Mattia Vaccari - University of Padova A. Franceschini & G. Rodighiero Thanks also to Carol, Jim, Matt, Michael, Seb & all the ISOCAM, ELAIS, SHADES, SWIRE, SPIRE & SCUBA2 folks

2. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari The integrated extragalactic background light in the far-infrared and sub-millimeter region of the spectrum is approximately equal to the integrated background light in the optical and UV part of the spectrum. To develop a complete understanding of galaxy formation, this background light must be resolved into galaxies and their properties must be characterized. The Cosmic IR Background Radiation Resolved Into Sources

3. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Modeling the FIR & Sub-mm Era  Long-wavelength observational astronomy is arguably experiencing its “golden era”, with new facilities (telescopes & instruments) coming on-line in an ever accelerating fashion  The sources making up the very bright and violently evolving universe discovered by IRAS first and the CIRB light later detected by COBE are being (and will increasingly be) detected and characterized at a pace largely reminiscent of optical astronomy  The paradigms of semi-analytical models will need time to properly adjust to and make sense of new results  Simpler and more flexible phenomenological models can be of great help in providing the first clues about the nature of such sources as well as in timely planning development and use of new facilities

4. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari The AF08 Model  The AF01 phenomenological model (Franceschini et al. 2001) was rather successful in explaining & “exploring” ISO results  Spitzer & SCUBA data (re)-analyses, however, called for a revamp  Through a simple backward evolution approach, AF08 describes available observables (number counts, z-distributions, L-functions, integrated CIRB levels…) in terms of number and luminosity evolution of four populations slowly or non-evolving disk galaxies [blue dotted lines] type-1 AGNs evolving as shown by UV and X-ray selected Quasars & Seyferts [green long-short-dashed lines] moderate-luminosity starbursts with peak emission at z ~ 1 [cyan dot-dashed lines] ultra-luminous starbursts with peak evolution between z = 2 and z = 4 [red long-dashed lines]

5. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Modeling Benchmarks  Spitzer MIPS & SCUBA Number Counts largely available –Spitzer MIPS Deep & Narrow : GOODS & GTO & GO –Spitzer MIPS Wide & Shallow : SWIRE & GTO & GO –SCUBA Deep : Lensing Surveys –SCUBA Wide : SHADES  Spec & Phot Redshift Distributions in the works –Complete Redshift Distributions of 24 (& 70)  m sources –Redshift Distributions of SCUBA sources & related headaches  Ultimate Spitzer Luminosity Functions within reach  Extras : AzTEC@JCMT & BLAST surveys being reduced

6. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Spitzer MIPS Counts : 24  m SWIRE (Shupe 08) GTO (Chary 04) but also (not shown) GTO (Papovich 04) FLS (Fadda 06) Remarkable agreement! Most stringent constraint provided by Spitzer to date

7. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Spitzer MIPS-Ge Counts : 70 & 160  m SWIRE (Vaccari in prep) FLS (Frayer 2006a) SWIRE (Vaccari in prep) FLS (Frayer 2006a) GTO & GO (Frayer 2006b) Reasonable agreement but comparison is hampered by poor areal coverage and sensitivity at 70 and 160  m respectively

8. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari SCUBA 850  m Counts SHADES (Coppin 2006) SCUBA Misc (Scott 2006) SCUBA Lensing (Knudsen 2008) Without ad hoc adjustments, we generally overpredict bright counts by some amount and perhaps more importantly miss the exact locus of their downturn

9. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari First Hints At Herschel Counts 450  m SCUBA Counts Smail et al. 2002

10. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari First Hints At Herschel Counts 350  m CSO Counts Khan et al. 2007 Fainter data point from CSO Brighter data points from rescaling of Smail et al. 2002

11. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Redshift Distribution of 24  m Sources Available in the literature are various bits of heterogeneous information reporting an awkward and sometimes undocumented mix of spec & phot redshifts ALSO Largely unreleased material! Understandable but a little annoying from the modeler’s “baby food prone” point of view In order to improve this situation, we turned to Spitzer’s Legacy SWIRE Public (Dec 05) & Proprietary databases handily available BUT Lack of spec and/or deep phot coverage, new spec campaigns crushed by TACs or bad weather GOODS LOTS of ancillary data and, crucially, redshifts BUT Only 24  m public catalogue (in GOODS-S) released back in 2004

12. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari NRAO - Socorro 21 Nov 2007 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Redshift Distribution of 24  m Sources Available in the literature are various bits of heterogeneous information reporting an awkward and sometimes undocumented mix of spec & phot redshifts ALSO Largely unreleased material! Understandable but a little annoying from the modeler’s “baby food prone” point of view In order to improve this situation, we turned to Spitzer’s Legacy SWIRE Public (Dec 05) & Proprietary databases handily available BUT Lack of spec and/or deep phot coverage, new spec campaigns crushed by TACs or bad weather GOODS LOTS of ancillary data and, crucially, redshifts BUT Only 24  m public catalogue (in GOODS-S) released back in 2004

13. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari z-dist of GOODS-S 24  m Sources The Field 948 objects within GOODS-S MIPS 24  m Public Catalogue “LARGELY” reliable & complete down to 80  Jy 666 within GOODS-MUSIC 168 arcmin 2 area ACS z + ISAAC K sel. also imaged in UV&IRAC lots of spectroscopic & photometric z-info

14. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari ID & Redshift Information Full Likelihood Ratio (LR) Analysis based on GOODS-MUSIC catalogue MIPS fluxes vs IRAC fluxes of z+K-selected sources Archival search through ESO, COMBO-17 & GMASS databases Our own SED Fitting Flavor revamped HyperZ better exploring pars space by Giulia Rodighiero SWIRE empirical SED templates by Mari Polletta Out of 666 sources, 650 (97.5%) have robust redshifts 253 Spec-Z (40%) & 397 Phot-Z (60%) 499 via GOODS-MUSIC from LR analysis 59 via GOODS-MUSIC through Visual Checks 57 via COMBO-17 35 via case-by-case SED analysis through HyperZ “Full” Optical/NIR/IRAC (& MIPS-24!) SED info now available!

15. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari ID & Redshift Information HyperZ SED Fitting… Full Likelihood Ratio (LR) Analysis based on GOODS-MUSIC catalogue MIPS fluxes vs IRAC fluxes of z+K-selected sources Out of 666 sources, 650 (97.5%) have robust redshifts 253 Spec-Z (40%) & 397 Phot-Z (60%) 499 via GOODS-MUSIC from LR analysis 59 via GOODS-MUSIC through Visual Checks 57 via COMBO-17 35 via case-by-case SED analysis through HyperZ “Full” Optical/NIR/IRAC (& MIPS-24!) SED info now available!

16. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Redshift Distribution of 24  m Sources Overdensities Confirmed Successful Modeling No Ad Hoc Adjustments

17. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari NRAO - Socorro 21 Nov 2007 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Redshift Distribution of SCUBA Sources Not so bad…

18. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Z=0-2.5 24  m Luminosity Functions GOODS-S + GOODS-N + SWIRE-VVDS Fields (Rodighiero in prep) ~ 2000 sources with some of the best spec info available The determination of redshift-dependent Luminosity Functions require large corrections which depend to a large extent on the adopted SED templates, and particularly so for IR Bolometric (8-1000  m) Luminosity Functions

19. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Comparisons with other Models Aim : Take stock of models on the market to minimize uncertainties Occasion : Seb’s SPIRE High-z Modeling Challenge of July 06  In the pipeline already –Franceschini et al. 2008 –Elbaz et al. 2008 –Xu et al. 2008 –Lagache et al. 2004 –Guiderdoni et al. 1997 (A) –Guiderdoni et al. 1997 (E)  Coming along –Rowan-Robinson 2008 –Malkan 2008 –Pearson 2008 Interested? Then drop me a line at mattia@mattiavaccari.netmattia@mattiavaccari.net

20. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Comparisons With Other Models Differences of up to an order of magnitude near the peak

21. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Comparisons With Other Models Differences of up to an order of magnitude near the peak

22. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Extragalactic Confusion  Two methods are routinely used to evaluate EG confusion –The “Fluctuations” approach measures rms background fluctuations due to unresolved sources and sets confusion at q (e.g. q=3,4,5) times that level –The “Counts” approach measures source counts and sets confusion where a maximum number of sources per beam (or rather a minimum number of beams per source, e.g. bps=10,30,50) is reached  Values provided by the two mostly depend on what’s happening –fainter than the confusion limit (Fluctuations) –brighter than the confusion limit (Counts)  Roughly speaking, the level of agreement between the two approaches depend on the slope of the counts ~ AT the confusion limit

23. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari “Fluctuations” Criterion

24. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari “Counts” Criterion Red lines refer to 10 bps levels

25. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Extragalactic Confusion ChannelPACS1PACS2PACS3SPIRE1SPIRE2SPIRE3 mmmm70110170250350500 Beam FWHM 4.74” 6.96”10.76”17.1”24.4”34.6” 3  [mJy] 0.068030.89796.95818.2623.8622.16 4  [mJy] 0.19622.07312.2027.8934.4931.03 5  [mJy] 0.36913.45417.5237.3844.8339.57 10 bps [mJy] 0.11001.2637.09014.0015.2313.23 20 bps [mJy] 0.30292.74611.8220.4921.6518.31 30 bps [mJy] 0.48874.03415.2325.4026.3421.49 40 bps [mJy] 0.66565.11018.1229.1829.9324.09 50 bps [mJy] 0.83506.10720.4532.4733.0526.18 Due to the different slope in counts, the  vs bps is not a one-to-one relation,  values being generally & consistently worse than bps ones for SPIRE with respect to PACS

26. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari A Pre-Launch Consensus View on Herschel EG Confusion Limits

27. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari A Pre-Launch Consensus View on Herschel EG Confusion Limits MEAN +- RMS of various models 4  values above are arguably best pre-launch indication (modulo BLAST results)

28. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Simulations : Spitzer 2 Herschel ( keeping an eye on SCUBA(2) )  24  m  110  m  350  m  450  m  850  m

29. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari What Herschel OT Key Project Surveys can we expect (or aim for)? Rich opportunities exist to extend GT KP mid- & large-area planned surveys (~ 1 deg^2 or larger) to deeper levels & wider areas An Herschel Survey of Surveys (SOS) www.mattiavaccari.net/herschel/sos 3 s ~ 10 bps 3 s ~ 10 bps 3  ~ 20 bps 3  ~ 20 bps 10 bps 10 bps 20 bps 20 bps Opp. Area NB : NOT including last-minute changes to GT but still largely valid…

30. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari What might be in it for you?  A handy modeling code & simulation tool generating –source counts –redshift & luminosity distributions –mock catalogues at a complete set of relevant FIR & sub-mm wavelengths  A companion tool to estimate confusion limits based on the model above as well as on competing models  A set of simulated surveys reproducing lots of completed & planned surveys by ISO, Spitzer, Herschel, Planck, Akari, SCUBA2 (and soon SPICA & FIRI?), e.g. the Herschel GT Wedding Cake and the SCUBA2 Legacy Surveys  Hopefully sometime soon publicly available through the www

31. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari

32. EARA Herschel Workshop @ IAP 19 Feb 2008 A FIR & Sub-mm View Mattia Vaccari Thanks! “Don't clap too loudly - it's a very old world” Tom Stoppard, Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead Mattia Vaccari mattia@mattiavaccari.net www.mattiavaccari.net