2. Working Group on Nowcasting Research
Slobodan Nickovic, Tom Keenan, Steve Goodman, Alan Seed, Thomas Haiden, Jenny Sun, Ted Nakazawa, Marianne Koenig, Jian Jie Wang, Augusto Pereira, Peter Li, Paul Joe and Jim Wilson
Outline
What is Nowcasting?
WGNR Mandate
WGNR Activities

3. WHAT IS NOWCASTING 0-6 hr forecasting by any method
Originally defined by Browning for the
1st Nowcasting Conference in 1981 as:
Nowcasting definition – description of the current state of the
weather in detail and the prediction of changes in a few hours
0-6 hr forecasting by any method
spatial scale of no more than a few kilometers (1-3 km) with frequent updates (5-10 min)
Heavy emphasis on observations

4. It is much more than that!
Highly application or user dependent!
Nowcasts are precise in weather element, time and space!
“Call to Action!”
Extreme events!

5. WHY NOWCASTING? Construction Transportation Sporting events Concerts
Only on the nowcasting time and space scale is there sufficient forecast skill that people will take actions to save life, property, and human inconvenience .
Construction
Transportation
Sporting events
Concerts
Aviation

6. Convective weather are traditional operational application of nowcasting.

7. Aviation deicing application needs precipitation type, intensity to resolution of minutes and kilometers.

8. The nature of the turbulence is critical!

9. Ski Jump experiences ~7-8 min fluctuations of the up/down slope wind
Upslope
Transition from drainage to upslope
Drainage
2 hour of 1 second data
Graph courtesy of Andrew Teakles
Bottom Top

10. Advance and Understanding
the Science
Technology Transfer
Capacity Build
Promote Nowcasting
Among WMO Members

11. Firm Target development
Forecast Demonstration Projects
Sydney 2000, Beijing 2008
Research Development Projects
Beijing 2008, SNOW-V10
Sochi 2014, Rio 2016
Developing Country Forecast Demonstration Project
1:1, Mentoring, Legacy of Research Capacity
Lake Victoria, SE Asia
Training
S2K, Brasilia, South Africa, Micronesia
B08, V10
Workshops
Heuristic Nowcasting, NWP for Nowcasting
Observations for Nowcasting
Symposia
WSN05, WSN09, WSN12
Verification
Societal Impacts
Firm Target development

12. Can a standard thermometer be used for nowcasting?
HMP45C
Standard Network
Thermometer
Inversion is ~here. HMP45C sees it
higher on ascent and lower on descent

13. Dale Barker, Stephane Belair, Volker Wulfmeyer; Slobodan Nickovic (WMO), Jeanette Onvlee, Mathias Rotach, Jimy Dudhia, Peter Steinle, Hui Yu, Tiziana Paccagnella, Kazuo Saito

14. Activities WG-MWFR
Help set up/involvement in RDP’s/FDP’s (COPS, FROST14, …)
Promote mesoscale research cooperation / proposals on:
Mesoscale modelling aspects: e.g. WGNE grey zone project
Mesoscale DA experimentation: e.g. HYMEX data assimilation and predictability testbed
LAM EPS experimentation
Urban meteorology: e.g. TOMACS campaign
Verification: e.g. JWGFVR ICP2 project
Organize dedicated workshops on specific topics
Other activities on:
consider/promote worldwide standards for (routine) mesoscale model quality assessment
inventory of available mesoscale training material/activities, gaps therein
NWP in Nowcasting workshop, October 2011

15. Ongoing and possible future RDP/FDP’s
COPS: convective orographic precipitation study (nearly completed,
final workshop spring 2012)
FROST-14: high-resolution deterministic and probabilistic forecasting and nowcasting in support of Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics
Participation in HYMEX TTM4: data assimilation and predictability
Possible future RDP’s:
TOMACS: Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convective Study: attempt to engage international community in an RDP
Tropical cyclone modelling
NWP in Nowcasting workshop, October 2011

17. The Olympic Sochi Testbed
(FROST-2014)
Main objectives:
Improve and exploit:
Nowcasting techniques
High-resolution analyses and forecasts for complex terrain/winter conditions
Regional and convection-permitting EPS
Improve understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the region;
Deliver forecasts in real time to Olympic forecasters and decision makers and quantify benefits of forecast improvement

18. TOMACS: Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study:
high density observation/modelling campaign over Tokyo
ひょう
あられ 氷晶
降水コア 雷
Polarmetric C band Doppler radar （MRI）
Doppler Lidar
2D scan
X band radar
Surface rain gauge
GPS receiver
Lightning Detection
3D scan
X band radar
sondes
Collaboration with MILT, NIED, NICT, OU, ..
Moist air
MW radiometer
約10km

19. /tmp/PreviewPasteboardItems/110911_TTM4a_Testbed_Wulfmeyer_Summary (dragged).pdf

20. Why this workshop? Mesoscale models moving into the nowcasting range:
Rapid update cycling
Assimilation of relevant spatially and temporally dense observations which are traditionally important to nowcasting (radar!)
High-resolution modelling
Convection-permitting ensembles under development
Option for ensemble nowcasting?
… but demands from nowcasting may be different from short-range forecasting
To what extent is mesoscale NWP presently capable of meeting the needs of nowcasting, either directly or indirectly?
Get nowcasting and mesoscale NWP communities together to define the way forward (set up research agenda)
NWP in Nowcasting workshop, October 2011

21. Expected outcome:
Overview of state-of-the-art of present use of mesoscale NWP in support of nowcasting, directly and indirectly
Identify the requirements of nowcasting on mesoscale NWP
Inventory of possible ways forward to enhance the capability of mesoscale NWP to support nowcasting, and associated research
Description of the main outcomes in a BAMS paper?
Proposals for joint research activities to further the field?
NWP in Nowcasting workshop, October 2011

22. Workshop Expectations
Proposals to advance the science of NWP for Nowcasting
Hi resolution (radar) data assimilation RDP/FDP observations
Radar data assimilation RDP