1. The Millennium Development Goals and Human Development
International symposium, Tokyo 9 October, 2002
Sakiko Fukuda-Parr
Director Human Development Report Office
UNDP

2. The millennium goals are human development goals Progress is too slow
An overview
The millennium goals are human development goals
Progress is too slow
What it will take
Nationally: Democratic governance
Internationally: Partnership of rich countries
My presentation will be about the MDGs and human development.
The MDGs are very much a poor person’s agenda – in fact, the MDGs are human development goals. The goals and indicators represent many of the most important human development objectives which we have been fighting for since our first report in Looking at the 8 goals, you can see much of human development laid out – indeed we’ve dedicaed whole reports to some of these issues.
I will first take you through the goals, look at current rate of progress, and then raise questions about what it will take both internationally and nationally to achieve the goals.

3. The millennium goals: an overview
What are MDGs
The millennium goals: an overview
Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger (1.2 billion have less than $1 a day, 800 million are hungry)
Achieve universal primary education (113 million children are not in school)
Promote gender equality and empower women (60% of children not in school are girls, women have on average only 14% of seats in parliaments)
Reduce child mortality (every day 30,000 children die of preventable causes.)
Improve maternal health (In Africa, a woman has 1 chance in 13 of dying in childbirth)
Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases (40 million are living with HIV/AIDS, 75% of them in Africa)
Ensure environmental sustainability (1.1 billion people do not have access to clean water, over 2 billion to sanitation)
Develop a global partnership for development (ODA declined from 53 to 51 billion from 1990 to 2001)
First, a review of the MDGs – the eight goals.
In my view these goals really reflect a poor persons agenda – a truly human development agenda – reflecting the most important capabilities. They translate HD into simple and meaningful objectives. They address some of the most enduring problems of poverty in terms of peoples’ lives. It’s an agenda for eradicating poverty – human poverty not just income poverty – in the world.
So what’s new? Four things. First, these goals have quantitative specific targets. Second, they are time bound. And third, there is a political commitment and agreement. That makes MDGs a new powerful force for change, for accelerating the pace of development. Fourth and finally, these goals put poverty and human development at as the bottom line of the agenda for international cooperation. It reminds us all that things like macroeconomic stability, expanding trade, and indeed economic growth are means to this ultimate end of reducing global poverty, and challenges rich countries to focus their aid, trade and financial policies to this end.

4. The millennium goals: an overview. By 2015:
What are MDGs
The millennium goals: an overview. By 2015:
Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
Halve the proportion living on less than $1 a day
Halve the proportion suffering from hunger
Achieve universal primary education
Ensure universal primary education
Promote gender equality and empower women
a. Eliminate gender disparities in education.
With a few exceptions, the 8 goals have quantitative targets. The next seven slides spell them out. I won’t read them but you have them for reference in the handouts.

5. The millennium goals: an overview
What are MDGs
The millennium goals: an overview
Reduce child mortality
Reduce infant and under-five mortality by 2/3
Improve maternal health
Reduce maternal mortality by ¾
Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
Halt and begin to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS
Halt and begin to reverse the spread of malaria and other major diseases

6. The millennium goals: an overview
What are MDGs
The millennium goals: an overview
Ensure environmental sustainability
Integrate the principles of sustainable development and begin to reverse the loss of environmental resources
Halve the proportion without access to safe drinking water
Improve the lives of at least 100million slum dwellers (by 2020)

7. The millennium goals: an overview
What are MDGs
The millennium goals: an overview
8. Develop a global partnership for development
Develop further an open, rule based predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial system
Include the commitment to good governance, development and poverty reduction both nationally and internationally

8. The millennium goals: an overview
What are MDGs
The millennium goals: an overview
8. Develop a global partnership for development
Address the special needs of the least developed countries, including tariff and quota free access for LDC exports. Enhanced programme of debt relief for HIPCs and cancellation of official bi-lateral debt and generous ODA for countries committed to poverty reduction.
Address the special needs of landlocked countries and small island developing states.

9. The millennium goals: an overview
What are MDGs
The millennium goals: an overview
8. Develop a global partnership for development
Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries, through national and international measures in order to make debt sustainable in the long-term
In co-operation with developing countries develop and implement strategies for decent and productive work for youth.

10. The millennium goals: an overview
What are MDGs
The millennium goals: an overview
8. Develop a global partnership for development
In co-operation with pharmaceutical companies provide access to affordable essential drugs in developing countries.
In co-operation with the private sector – make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications.

11. MDGs are human development goals
Human development is about widening choices people have in life, to lead a life to its full potential and in dignity. At the core of this process is expanding capabilities:
To be knowledgeable
To be healthy and survive
To enjoy a decent standard of living
To enjoy political and civil liberties, and participate in the life of a community.
The MDGs are human development goals because they go right to the heart of the improving lives of people. We have been arguing that you cannot judge development progress on economic growth alone but on whether peoples lives have really improved. You can see the MDGs in this definition of human development.
But these goals do not capture all the more complex dimensions of Human Development which is about expanding choices that people have to lead a life to its full, through expanding capabilities, and through people taking action themselves to improve their lives. Critical aspects such as political and civil liberties and participation are not included.
But compared to the time when some were pushing for economic growth and economic growth alone – this is a tremendous step forward and the differences should not be exagerated.

12. Not a new model of development, but A tool of political mobilization
MDGs are HD goals - a tool of mobilisation and framework of accountability
The MDGs represent an unprecedented political consensus on time bound quantified indicators. MDGs are:
Not a new model of development, but
A tool of political mobilization
A framework of accountability for national governments, international donors, and many other actors that have a role in development – local NGOs, international NGOs, womens groups, trade unions, private businesses, the media, the judiciary…….global citizens
So the MDGs are a tool of political mobilization, not a new model of development. It provides a framework of accountability for national goernments, bilateral and multilateral donors, and many other actors that have a role in development such as local NGOs, international NGO networks, womens’ groups, trade unions, privated businesses, global corporations, the media, the judiciary ….indeed all of us who are in fact global citizens.
As a tool of political mobilization, its impact has already been amazing.
These goals are really about bringing together different countries and the international community
Really all the buzz in the international community is quite unprecedented. I have been working in the UN for over 20 years and I have never seen anything bringing the whole system together. Even the World Bank is on board with a vengence on UN goals that have tended to be marginal in Washington. But I see my friends and colleagues down there are ‘card carrying members’ of the movement – they actually have little cards in their pockets with the 8 goals printed in bold colourful letters.

13. MDGs are HD goals – a historical perspective on setting goals
Setting goals is the easy part….
The bad,
DAC commits to 0.7% GDP in 1970; average disbursements in 2000 was 0.22%
Health for all by 2000 set in 1978
the good,
UNICEF’s immunization goals
and the possible?
The MDGs have mobilized more political momentum than any goals before
Setting the goals is the easy part – actually achieving them is more difficult.
This is not the first time development goals have been set in the UN. In fact, these goals are mostly not new. They pick up the goals that were set and agreed at major UN conferences of the 1980s and 1990s – from Rio to Istanbul. Prior to that, there were also many goals set in international declarations.
The history of international goal setting has bad and good experiences - Many goals have been set but not achieved such as the goal of DAC countries spending 0.7% of their GDPs. Disbursements in 2000 amounted to only 0.22%. But some goals have had a major impact; immunization soared when targets were set. Surely the lesson is that when there is real mobilizaiton and action – not just commitment in words but real action.
We have reason to be optimistic. There is an unprecedented momentum to translate the goals into action plans everywhere.

14. Progress is too slow: globally
Now let’s look at the trends. Are we on track to achieving the goals? To be on target (globally) we must have made 40% of the progress by 2000 – this is only the case in Safe water – when the green bar goals all the way the target is reached – where it is all red (HIV/aids) – no progress has been made.
With current trends, progress is not fast enough to reach the goals by 2015.
Just for the hunger goal. Over the last decade, the numbers not having enough to eat went down by 6 ?? million, a significant number but a tiny dent in the task ahead to go from 800 to 400 million; at this rate of progress, it would take over 100 years to reach the goal, not 15.
In many cases, there were setbacks – primary school enrolment declined or stagnated in Tanzania, The Gambia, Zambia, Congo, Mozambique, Burundi, Niger and elsewhere in the last 15 years.
A change of course is needed, requiring more resources, more effective national policies, more national capacity. That translates into more effective democratic governance nationally and more focussed partnership internationally.

15. Progress is too slow: for many countries
HDR2002: MDG analysis – overall (119 countries)
These are global trends. But behind these averages are countries on track to meeting the goals and countries far behind. Our review of 119 countries shows 55 countries with a quarter of the worlds people on track to achieve three quarters of the goals or more, but 33 countries with a quarter of the world’s population are on track in less than half the goals. We face the real possibility that we’ll be facing the same goals a generation from now.

16. Progress is too slow – goal by goal
HDR2002: MDG analysis – goal by goal
Failing to grow out of income poverty
There were not enough data to assess global progress to halving the proportion of people living on less than $1 a day by But looking at growth rates over the 1990s (1990 – 2000) reveals a great deal. Out of the 119 countries, only 24 had growth rates of over 3.7% per capita, the level estimated needed to achieve this target. 75 countries grew at less, while 52 countries actually experienced negative growth over this period.

17. Progress is too slow: which countries are failing
Let’s take a closer look at where the problems are:
Africa has by far the largest number of countries far behind.

18. Progress is too slow: which countries are failing?
The less developed fairing worse
Most countries that are far behind already have very low levels in the MDG areas – low human development countries are doing worse.
Most high human development countries are on track to meeting most of the goals.

19. Conflict and performance in the MDGS
Progress is too slow: which countries are failing?
Conflict and performance in the MDGS

20. Progress is too slow: which countries are failing?
Is economic growth a pre-requisite? Interestingly, it is not only those countries with poor growth rates that are lagging. 41 countries with less than 3% annual growth rates are doing very well in expanding human development and are on track to meeting the goals.

21. Progress is too slow: which countries are failing?
– The axis is the number of countries –these are the 17 countries identified in previous slide that are growing negatively but are on ontrack for ¾ of the goals or more. I’ve split them up by region as its such an interesting results as to need decomposition. It is mostly the case of Eastern Europe and Arab States countries that are on track to achieving the MDGs with negative growth, not countries of Africa.

22. What it will take - nationally
Public policy that responds to the needs of ordinary people, especially the poor. That happens when:
Decision makers are accountable to people
Ordinary people have a say in decision making - with one person one voice
Governance is not just efficient but fair and protects human rights, when governance is democratic.
These trends point to an urgent need for action to speed up process.
What will it take? On each goal and for each country there will be a host of things to be done. Each will require financial resources, institutional capacity, technology, infrastructure and other inputs. A stable policy environment and a stable political environment will be prerequisites.
But as we have seen from previous slides, some countries do well and others don’t while all facing a myriad of constraints that developing countries do. What makes the difference is the priority given to these issues in public policy – when governments are prepared to direct resources and efforts to the poor and give them the opportunities to improve their lives for themselves.
That requires public policy that responds to the needs of ordinary people, especially the poor.
Ultimately this will depend on politics. We argue in this year’s Human Development Report that democatic political institutions and processes provide a framework for governance that is responsive to people’s priorities.

23. What it will take – nationally deepening democracy
Deepening democracy requires:
Spread of democratic institutions
Spread of democratic politics
But we also argue that democratic institutions are enough – they can just get captured by political and economic elites.
Democracies need to deepen – in a system that not only has the formal institutions and rules – but where the values and culture of democracy are deeply embedded in community life, where there is an alert citizenry, an active media, watchdog civil society all acting to really influence decision making.
There are many places where this is happening on the ground. In the state of Rajastan in India, citizens groups organized (a group called MKSS), started to scrutinize village budgets and uncovered funds that had gone missing. They held public hearings and the result has been lasting reform in the budgeting process. Now they introduced open reviews of budgets as they are being prepared, and the monitoring by citizens groups continues.
Otherwise public decisions in democracies can end up responding more to interest groups like big business than to the public.

24. What it will take: Deepening democracy
When people enjoy civil and political liberties, they can put pressure on public decision making for their interests such as better schools and health facilities for their communities.

25. Deepening democracy
Direct role – to be able to participate and effect the decisions that effect your life is an integral part of human development
Indirect role – participating in the political process can lead to improvements in other aspects of human development
But it’s also important to remember that democracy and the civil and political liberties it guarantees is important because it helps promote education, health, clean environment and so on – in other words for instrumental reasons. It is important because as an end in itself.

26. What it will take: partnership with rich countries
Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development
Aid
Debt
Trade
Technology
Countries cannot do it alone. Just because countries with low incomes do better than countries with higher income sometimes doesn’t mean that resources are not needed. Developing countries need all the help they can get.
This is not just aid but also debt relief, trade and access to technology.
Goal 8 is an important goal, the one least talked about, but for me the critical one.

27. What it will take: partnership with rich countries
Increasing ODA will certainly be a critical part of action needed. Recent studies by the World Bank and others estimate that to meet all the goals would require doubling of current levels of aid.

28. What it will take: partnership with rich countries
Aid from donor countries
Increasing aid means bucking the recent trends. ODA has been steadily declining from xx to xx over the last decade.
Disbursements
(2000 US$million)
Japan
USA EU
Japan’s disbursements may well decline to reflect recent cuts.

29. What it will take: partnership with rich countries
Aid to recipient countries
For the recipient countries that are in greatest need, these declines have been quite dramatic; on a per capita basis, aid to africa halved in the 1990s
Of course more aid is not enough but these resources have to be effective, going where they are needed. There is a live debate in most donor capitals on aid effectiveness.
This often means worrying about corruption. But the agenda for aid effectiveness should also take on board developing country concerns such as reducing the administrative burden for managing aid at the recipient end that really distort the priorities of overstreched public institutions in poor countries. Other concerns include conditionality, need vs. performance.

30. What it will take: partnership with rich countries
Tariff protection imposed by high-income countries
Perhaps what is even more important than aid is expanding market opportunities for trade that can stimulate economic growth. Developing countries export agricultural and labour intensive manufacturing goods. They face much higher tariffs than industrial products.
Tariffs are only the beginning of the many barriers to market access that developing countries face.

31. What it will take: partnership with rich countries
Subsidizing agriculture
Subsidies lower costs for developed country producers. DAC countries gave $1 billion a day in subsidies, more than 6 times total ODA.

32. What it will take: partnership with rich countries
These trading conditions reflect weak capacities of developing countries to negotiate a better deal. Rich countries will have to do more than give aid and give trade concessions. Rich countries have to help create a system of global decision making that is more inclusive for developing countries, taking account of their weak capacities.

33. What it will take: partnership with rich countries
We need an international political economy that takes on board the interests of developing countries.
We are working on the Human Development Report 2003 which will take a closer look at the specific action needed to achieve these goals: the Political Economy of Achieving the Millenium Goals.

34. Thank you
For more: see
Human Development Report 2002: Deepening Democracy in a Fragmented World
And wait for:
Human Development Report 2003: The Political Economy of Achieving the MDGs
Publication forthcoming in September 2003