1. 10 Trends Affecting the Future of Higher Education
Ralph Wolff
President and Executive Director
Senior College Commission, WASC
World Future Society

2. Overview of U.S. Higher Education
Greatest diversity of institutions in the world
Long considered the best system in the world
Major innovations – independent boards of trustees, community colleges, open access
Massification since Korean War
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3. Mission Differentiation
Research
Liberal arts
Comprehensive universities
Community colleges
Faith-based
Specialized/single purpose
“One solution never fits all.”
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4. Institutions Public 4-year institutions 643
Private 4-year institutions, nonprofit 1,533
Private 4-year institutions, for-profit 453
Private 2-year institutions, nonprofit 107
Private 2-year institutions, for-profit 533
Total ,314
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5. Where Students Go Public 4-year institutions 6,955,013 (39%)
Private 4-year institutions ,285,317 (24%)
Private 2-year institutions ,420 (1%)
Total ,758,870
81% of all freshmen in the fall of 2006 who had graduated from high school in the previous year attended colleges in their home states.
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6. Demographics Women 57.3% Full-time 61.7% Minority 31.5% Foreign 3.4%
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7. 1. Financial Meltdown
At a time of increased need for higher education:
Public funding cuts
Endowment decline > 20%
Crunch on lines of credit
Limits on tuition increases at private institutions
Increases at public universities
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8. WFS 7-09

9. 3-5 Year Setting Every state will have a structural deficit
Pell increases do not make up differences
$50 billion stimulus money for higher education is one time, focused
Student debt load increasing
Student work hours increasing
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10. Short –Medium Term Consequences
Immediate response is to freeze and cut, not restructure
Will shift most public supported institutions to “public assisted”
Lead to search for new sources of revenue -- increased business partnerships, joint ventures
Need for new models – are they out there?
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11. 2. President Obama’s Priorities
Highest proportion of college graduates in the world by 2020 (40 % → 60%)
National high school exit standards
Linked to college readiness standards
$15 billion community college initiative
$50 million for free online courses
Centers to develop and share best practices
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12. Short – Medium Term Impact
Shift toward vocational and technical education/jobs
Partnering with major Gates and Lumina Foundation Initiatives
Recognition that community colleges are today what high schools were 30 years ago
Increased access through open admissions
Increased participation of underrepresented groups
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13. 3. Influence of For Profits and Market Capital
Fastest growing sector
Increasing mergers, acquisitions
Conversion of nonprofit universities
Joint ventures with mainline institutions
Growth, scalability and high profitability of proprietary systems
Increasing connections with industry – e.g., $500 million BP grant to Berkeley
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14. 4. Technology and Distance Education
> 2 million students
Growing rapidly, increasing competition
Hybrid programs most effective
Greatest number within traditional settings
High tech does not always mean high enrollment
Can be centers of high profit
Continuing Congressional concerns
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15. 5. Internationalization
Lincoln Commission – value to US students of study abroad
Increase in international students in US
Increased competition here and abroad for best international students
Infusion of international perspectives -- a course or a holistic perspective?
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16. 6. Globalization
International recognition of importance of higher education
Major investments in local systems
Bologna Process will have significant impact over time
Cross-border offerings increasing – Australian medical school opening in US; new programs and institutions in China, former Soviet bloc, Middle East
Creation of new partnerships, joint degrees, dual degrees
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17. 7. Quality Assurance and Accountability
Completion rates
Placement rates
Learning results
Costs
Debt load
Executive compensation
Board accountability
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18. Has Quality Declined?
NAAL: Performance of college graduates and those with graduate degrees 1992 to 2003:
-- % college graduates proficient in English fell from 40% to 31%
-- % Proficient in prose literacy fell from 51% to 41%
National Survey of America’s College Students: significant numbers of college grads (20-30%) have only basic quantitative skills
No significant differences between public and private institutions
In 2 year schools, no significant difference based on academic or technical curricula
Employers: college grads lack skills for the workplace (AAC&U surveys)
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19. 6 Year Graduation Rates at 4-year Institutions
All %
Men %
Women %
Visit – College Results Online
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20. Global Competitiveness
Drop in high school graduation rates (77.5%)
Dropped from 1st to 7th in college participation rates of year olds
2d for yr. olds; 10th for 25-34
15th in completion rates
Lower than OECD average for science and math literacy for 15 yr. olds (PISA scores)
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21. 8. Sustainability and the University
President’s Climate Commitment
Involvement of professional associations
Moving from facilities to curriculum to institutionalization
Major area of scientific research
Need equal work in social and behavioral sciences, arts and humanities for the change in consciousness needed
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22. 9. 21st Century Learning Competencies
“We are responsible for preparing our students to address problems we cannot foresee with knowledge that has not yet been developed using technology not yet invented.”
“The problems we have cannot be solved at the same level of thinking at which we created them.” Albert Einstein
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23. Is Higher Education Primarily for Economic Gain?
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24. Or Developing the Nation’s Talent and Creativity?
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25. Changing Character of Knowledge
Sources of Knowledge
education institution → everywhere (deinstitutionalized learning)
Understanding of Knowledge
static → dynamic (openness to new knowledge, ability to “unlearn”)
Structure of Knowledge
compartmental → holistic
Nature of Knowledge
external authority → personal and contextual
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26. 21st Century Skills Problem identification or articulation 1 9
Ability to identify new patterns of behavior or new combinations of actions 2 3
Integration of knowledge across different disciplines
Ability to originate new ideas 4 6
Comfort with notion of ‘no right answer’ 5 11
Fundamental curiosity 10
Originality and inventiveness in work 7
Problem solving 8
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27. 10. New Forms of Institutions
Institutional consolidations/closures
“Cloud” programs across institutions
The “partnering” university
Privatized public universities
Credit banks
Transnational universities
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28. What Is On Your List?
Ralph Wolff
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