1. Using international security research networks: the Global Futures Forum
Jean-Louis Tiernan
Sr. Coordinator, Academic Outreach
Canadian Security Intelligence Service

2. What the GFF is Global knowledge network
Foresight
Global knowledge network
Launched by Canada and the U.S
Driven by governments
Involves over 40 countries
Serves security and intelligence
Steers clear of policy prescriptions
Examines transnational security issues
Research
Expert
outreach 2

3. What the GFF is
A multinational, multidisciplinary network led by intelligence and security agencies to gain better understanding of global security issues
Works exclusively in the unclassified domain
Engages in strategic-level dialogue and research aimed at enhancing common capabilities for foresight and insight (“avoiding blind spots”)
Includes experts from a wide range of professional sectors and disciplines, both governmental and non-governmental
Features self-organising communities of interest focussed on specific global security issues, on methodologies for making sense of these issues, and on ways to transform organisations to better cope with them
Involves collaboration, both virtually—on a password-protected web site— and in regular face-to-face meetings at locations around the world

4. What the GFF does
To reap the benefits of networked collaboration for intelligence analysis, the GFF:
Tests current thinking, challenges analytic assumptions, widens the range of considered outcomes, and discovers questions that are not being asked;
Complements traditional intelligence analysis by creating a context to interpret classified information;
Generates collaborative insights and early warning of potential threats and opportunities that might go unrecognised by relying solely on traditional intelligence;
Enables rapid learning through real-time exchanges;
Encourages the sharing, co-creation, and integration of new analytic methodologies;
Creates non-traditional linkages among governments, academe, think-tanks and business.

5. GFF and traditional intelligence
Global Futures Forum
Traditional intelligence
Collaborative insights
Promotes diversity of opinion
Bottom-up formulation of issues that need to be considered
Global perspectives
Unclassified, focus on broad and longer-term issues
   
Analysis and collection
Drives towards common assessment
Top-down levying of requirements for questions that need to be answered
Focus on national perspectives
Classified, focus on tactical and operational concerns
Complementarity

6. An evolving idea: history of the GFF
The GFF is the outcome of three international conferences:
Rome 04
For the first recorded
time after WWII, heads
of assessments from
over 30 countries meet
in an unclassified
environment to
discuss global issues.
The need for innovative
Collaboration
is recognised.
Washington 05
Building on the
exchange in Rome,
the CIA’s Global
Futures Partnership
proposes the GFF as a
collaborative model;
34 countries join, each
defining their level
and mode of participation
Prague 06
A year after the GFF was
launched, existing and
new members meet to
take stock of the initiative.
Topic-specific working
groups (communities of
interest) discuss early
results; other joint
initiatives are
proposed
Vancouver08
A year after the GFF was
launched, existing and
new members meet to
take stock of the initiative.
Topic-specific working
groups (communities of
interest) discuss early
results; other joint
initiatives are
proposed

7. An evolving idea: history of the GFF
The GFF is the outcome of international conferences:
Prague 2006
Singapore 2010
Rome 2004
Washington 2005
Vancouver 2008

8. How it works The General Meetings
The international conferences which led to the GFF have become interactive meeting points for the global analytic community. Hosted by a different country every year, the annual meeting, likened by some to a “mini Davos of analysis”, sets the direction of the GFF for the year ahead. It also provides a platform to examine emerging issues.
Communities of interest and other substantive activities
Communities of interest (COIs), led and developed by various countries, meet between the annual meetings to discuss specific global security issues. Existing and past COIs have looked into: radicalisation, global disease, illicit trafficking, social networks, technological surprise, genocide prevention, proliferation, the practise and organisation of intelligence, economic security and strategic foresight and warning.
On-line collaboration
Between face-to-face meetings, the current 1500 individual members use the password-protected site to share resources and exchange using blogs, discussion forums, wikis, etc.

9. Role of CSIS and Canada’s place
Plans and develops the participation of Canada’s S&I community in the Forum;
Chairs informal national advisory group (PCO, CSIS, DND, CBSA, DFAIT, RCMP) to co-ordinate input;
Supports our U.S. intelligence partners in developing and expanding the Forum globally;
Sets Canadian position on governance issues;
Chairs GFF Steering Group;
Serves as strategic facilitator: Canada now most active member country.

10. Results so far Contents point of view
Community of interest on radicalisation (Meech Lake, Brussels, Ottawa, The Hague, Singapore). Those have allowed the community to understand an issue characterised by an extreme case of information overflow.
Innovative methodologies to explore trends in radicalisation were used, including alternative scenarios.
Systems model to understand the linkages between actors and motivations in illicit trafficking (small arms, drugs, humans).
Process point of view
“Early signals”: As a result of Canada’s involvement, rehearsed professional networks are now in place and can be relied on to receive updates from various capitals or research centres.
Vancouver 2008: Canada emerges as an innovator in intelligence.
Significant boost to launch CSIS Academic Outreach program in 2008.

11. What next? Some upcoming activities
Making foresight “actionable” (U.S.) – March
Prosperity and Security: the Challenges of Uncertain Economic Times (Canada) – 8 March and 15 April
Practise and organisation of intelligence (Denmark) – June
Practise and organisation of intelligence (Switzerland) – early 2011
Food security (Canada) – early 2011

12. Some lessons learned Making networks work?
Foresight is important can be discredited easily with bad planning
Identify your needs as government
Manage your expectations; set goals
Star small and use precise focus
Use GFF as an entrepreneurial lab 12

13. www.globalfuturesforum.org Becoming involved Janelle Boucher
Jean-Louis Tiernan 13