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John Doyle Control and Dynamical Systems, EE, BioE Caltech

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1 John Doyle Control and Dynamical Systems, EE, BioE Caltech
Universal laws and architecture: Foundations for Sustainable Infrastructure John Doyle Control and Dynamical Systems, EE, BioE Caltech

2 Caltech smartgrid research
Motivation: uncertainty + large scale Optimization and control demand response power flow (Javad Lavaei) PIs: Low, Chandy, Wierman,...

3 Current control SCADA EMS relay system
global centralized state estimation contingency analysis optimal power flow simulation human in loop decentralized mechanical relay system local slow fast mainly centralized, open-loop preventive, slow timescale

4 scalable, decentralized, real-time feedback, sec-min timescale
Our approach SCADA EMS endpoint based scalable control local algorithms global perspective global relay system local slow fast We have technologies to monitor/control 1000x faster not the fundamental theories and algorithms

5 Architectural transformation
Power network will go through similar architectural transformation in the next couple decades that phone network has gone through ? Deregulation started Tesla: multi-phase AC Enron, blackouts 1888 Both started as natural monopolies Both provided a single commodity Both grew rapidly through two WWs s 2000s 1876 s Bell: telephone Deregulation started 1969: DARPAnet Convergence to Internet

6 Architectural transformation
... to become more interactive, more distributed, more open, more autonomous, and with greater user participation ... while maintaining security & reliability

7 Caltech smartgrid research
Motivation: uncertainty + large scale Optimization and control demand response power flow (Javad Lavaei) PIs: Low, Chandy, Wierman,...

8 Proceedings of the IEEE, Jan 2007
OR optimization What’s next? Fundamentals! A rant Chang, Low, Calderbank, Doyle

9 “Universal laws and architectures?”
Universal “conservation laws” (constraints) Universal architectures (constraints that deconstrain) Mention recent papers* Focus on broader context not in papers Lots of theorems Lots of case studies * Fundamentals! A rant *try to get you to read them? Systems

10 my case studies Networking and “clean slate” architectures
wireless end systems info or content centric application layer integrate routing, control, scheduling, coding, caching control of cyber-physical PC, OS, VLSI, antennas, etc (IT components) Lots from cell biology glycolytic oscillations for hard limits bacterial layering for architecture Neuroscience Smartgrid, cyber-phys Wildfire ecology Medical physiology Earthquakes Lots of aerospace Physics: turbulence, stat mech (QM?) “Toy”: Lego, clothing, buildings, … Fundamentals! my case studies

11 sustainable Requirements on systems and architectures
accessible accountable accurate adaptable administrable affordable auditable autonomy available credible process capable compatible composable configurable correctness customizable debugable degradable determinable demonstrable dependable deployable discoverable distributable durable effective efficient evolvable extensible failure transparent fault-tolerant fidelity flexible inspectable installable Integrity interchangeable interoperable learnable maintainable manageable mobile modifiable modular nomadic operable orthogonality portable precision predictable producible provable recoverable relevant reliable repeatable reproducible resilient responsive reusable robust safety scalable seamless self-sustainable serviceable supportable securable simplicity stable standards compliant survivable sustainable tailorable testable timely traceable ubiquitous understandable upgradable usable

12 Simplified, minimal requirements
accessible accountable accurate adaptable administrable affordable auditable autonomy available credible process capable compatible composable configurable correctness customizable debugable degradable determinable demonstrable dependable deployable discoverable distributable durable effective efficient evolvable extensible failure transparent fault-tolerant fidelity flexible inspectable installable Integrity interchangeable interoperable learnable maintainable manageable mobile modifiable modular nomadic operable orthogonality portable precision predictable producible provable recoverable relevant reliable repeatable reproducible resilient responsive reusable robust safety scalable seamless self-sustainable serviceable supportable securable simple stable standards compliant survivable sustainable tailorable testable timely traceable ubiquitous understandable upgradable usable

13 efficient simple sustainable robust
Requirements on systems and architectures accessible accountable accurate adaptable administrable affordable auditable autonomy available credible process capable compatible composable configurable correctness customizable debugable degradable determinable demonstrable dependable deployable discoverable distributable durable effective evolvable extensible failure transparent fault-tolerant fidelity flexible inspectable installable Integrity interchangeable interoperable learnable maintainable manageable mobile modifiable modular nomadic operable orthogonality portable precision predictable producible provable recoverable relevant reliable repeatable reproducible resilient responsive reusable safety scalable seamless self-sustainable serviceable supportable securable stable standards compliant survivable tailorable testable timely traceable ubiquitous understandable upgradable usable efficient simple sustainable robust

14 efficient simple sustainable robust
Requirements on systems and architectures efficient simple sustainable robust

15 efficient simple sustainable robust
Requirements on systems and architectures efficient simple sustainable robust

16 sustainable fragile robust simple efficient wasteful complex
Requirements on systems and architectures sustainable fragile robust simple efficient wasteful complex

17 sustainable fragile robust simple efficient wasteful complex
What we want sustainable fragile robust simple efficient wasteful complex

18 What we get fragile robust simple efficient wasteful complex

19 What we get fragile robust simple efficient wasteful complex

20 Hard limits fragileY Bad Optimal Impossible robustY robustX fragileX
Cannot be simultaneously robust in all ways to all perturbations.

21 Sometimes? fragileY Bad Optimal robustY robustZ robustX fragileX
fragileZ

22 Oops? fragileY Bad Optimal robustY robustZ robustX fragileX fragileZ

23 sustainable fragile robust simple efficient wasteful complex
Requirements on systems and architectures sustainable fragile robust simple efficient wasteful complex

24 Amory B. Lovins, Reinventing Fire

25 I’m interested in fire…
Very accessible No math

26 Accessible ecology UG math

27 Wildfire ecosystem as ideal example
Cycles on years to decades timescale Regime shifts: grass vs shrub vs tree Fire= keystone “specie” Metabolism: consumes vegetation Doesn’t (co-)evolve Simplifies co-evolution spirals and metabolisms 4 ecosystems globally with convergent evo So Cal, Australia, S Africa, E Mediterranean Similar vegetation mix Invasive species

28 2050 Today efficient wasteful Physics

29 sustainable fragile robust simple efficient wasteful complex
Future evolution of the “smart” grid? sustainable fragile robust simple efficient wasteful complex

30 Doyle and Csete, Proc Nat Acad Sci USA, online JULY 25 2011
This paper aims to bridge progress in neuroscience involving sophisticated quantitative analysis of behavior, including the use of robust control, with other relevant conceptual and theoretical frameworks from systems engineering, systems biology, and mathematics. Very accessible No math Doyle and Csete, Proc Nat Acad Sci USA, online JULY

31 IEEE TRANS ON SYSTEMS, MAN, AND CYBERNETICS,
JULY 2010, Alderson and Doyle Very accessible No math

32 Want to understand the space of systems/architectures
Case studies? fragile Strategies? Hard limits on robust efficiency? Architectures? Want robust and efficient systems and architectures robust efficient wasteful

33 Technology? fragile At best we get one robust efficient wasteful

34 ??? fragile Often neither robust efficient wasteful

35 ??? ? ? Bad architectures? gap? Bad theory? fragile robust efficient
wasteful

36 Exponential improvement in efficiency F
100% 10% 1% .1%

37 When will lamps be 200% efficient?
Solving all energy problems? When will lamps be 200% efficient? 100% Exponential improvement 10% 1% .1% Note: this is real data!

38 When will lamps be 200% efficient?
Oops… never. 50% 10% 1% .1% Note: need to plot it right.

39 Deep, but fragmented, incoherent, incomplete
Control, OR Comms Kalman Pontryagin Shannon Bode Nash Theory? Deep, but fragmented, incoherent, incomplete Von Neumann Carnot Boltzmann Turing Godel Heisenberg Compute Einstein Physics

40 ? fragile? wasteful? Control Comms Each theory  one dimension
Shannon Bode Each theory  one dimension Tradeoffs across dimensions Assume architectures a priori Progress is encouraging, but… fragile? slow? ? wasteful? Carnot Boltzmann Turing Godel Heisenberg Compute Physics Einstein

41 complex simple 2.5d space of systems and architectures fragile robust
wasteful efficient

42 Conservation “laws”? fragile Case studies Sharpen hard bounds
Hard limit Case studies wasteful

43 UG biochem, math, control theory
Chandra, Buzi, and Doyle Most important paper so far.

44 CSTR, yeast extracts Experiments
K Nielsen, PG Sorensen, F Hynne, H-G Busse. Sustained oscillations in glycolysis: an experimental and theoretical study of chaotic and complex periodic behavior and of quenching of simple oscillations. Biophys Chem 72:49-62 (1998).

45 “Standard” Simulation
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 2 3 4 v=0.03 0.5 1.5 v=0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 v=0.2 Figure S4. Simulation of two state model (S7.1) qualitatively recapitulates experimental observation from CSTR studies [5] and [12]. As the flow of material in/out of the system is increased, the system enters a limit cycle and then stabilizes again. For this simulation, we take q=a=Vm=1, k=0.2, g=1, u=0.01, h=2.5.

46 Why? Experiments Simulation
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 1 2 3 4 v=0.03 0.5 1.5 v=0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 v=0.2 Experiments Simulation Why? Figure S4. Simulation of two state model (S7.1) qualitatively recapitulates experimental observation from CSTR studies [5] and [12]. As the flow of material in/out of the system is increased, the system enters a limit cycle and then stabilizes again. For this simulation, we take q=a=Vm=1, k=0.2, g=1, u=0.01, h=2.5.

47 Glycolytic “circuit” and oscillations
Most studied, persistent mystery in cell dynamics End of an old story (why oscillations) side effect of hard robustness/efficiency tradeoffs no purpose per se just needed a theorem Beginning of a new one robustness/efficiency tradeoffs complexity and architecture need more theorems and applications Fundamentals!

48 x? y? autocatalytic? a? fragile? h? g? Robust
PFK? fragile? Tradeoffs? Hard limit? h? x? control? y? g? Robust =maintain energy charge w/fluctuating cell demand PK? Rest? rate k? robust? efficient? wasteful? Efficient=minimize metabolic overhead

49 Theorem! Fragility simple enzyme complex enzyme Metabolic Overhead

50 ? Fragility hard limits General Rigorous First principle simple
complex ? Overhead, waste Domain specific Ad hoc Phenomenological Plugging in domain details

51 ? Control Comms Fundamental multiscale physics Foundations, origins of
Wiener Comms Bode Shannon robust control Kalman Fundamental multiscale physics Foundations, origins of noise dissipation amplification catalysis General Rigorous First principle ? Carnot Boltzmann Heisenberg Physics

52 “New sciences” of complexity and networks
Control Comms Wildly “successful” Complex networks Compute “New sciences” of complexity and networks edge of chaos, self-organized criticality, scale-free,… Stat physics Carnot Boltzmann Heisenberg Physics

53 Popular but wrong D. Alderson, NPS

54 “New sciences” of complexity and networks
Alderson &Doyle, Contrasting Views of Complexity and Their Implications for Network-Centric Infrastructure, IEEE TRANS ON SMC, JULY 2010 Control Comms Complex networks Compute doesn’t work Stat physics “New sciences” of complexity and networks edge of chaos, self-organized criticality, scale-free,… Carnot Boltzmann Heisenberg Physics

55 Control Comms Complex networks Compute Stat physics Physics
Alderson &Doyle, Contrasting Views of Complexity and Their Implications for Network-Centric Infrastructure, IEEE TRANS ON SMC, JULY 2010 Control Comms Complex networks Compute Sandberg, Delvenne, & Doyle, On Lossless Approximations, the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem, and Limitations of Measurement, IEEE TRANS ON AC, FEBRUARY, 2011 Stat physics Carnot Boltzmann Heisenberg Physics

56 Control Comms Complex networks Compute “orthophysics” Stat physics,
From prediction to mechanism to control Complex networks Fundamentals! Compute “orthophysics” Sandberg, Delvenne, & Doyle, On Lossless Approximations, the Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem, and Limitations of Measurement, IEEE TRANS ON AC, FEBRUARY, 2011 Stat physics, fluids, QM Carnot Boltzmann Heisenberg Physics

57 Turbulence and drag? J. Fluid Mech (2010) Flow Streamlined
Laminar Flow Transition to Turbulence Increasing Drag, Fuel/Energy Use and Cost Turbulent Flow

58 Coherent structures and turbulent drag
Physics of Fluids (2011) y y Flow z x z x Coherent structures and turbulent drag high-speed region 3D coupling upflow Blunted turbulent velocity profile low speed streak downflow Turbulent Laminar

59 ? Laminar Control? Turbulent Turbulent Laminar fragile robust
Fundamentals! Turbulent Laminar fragile Laminar Control? Turbulent ? robust efficient wasteful

60 How general is this picture?
Implications for human evolution? Cognition? Technology? fragile simple tech robust complex tech efficient wasteful

61 Layered architectures
Diverse applications TCP IP MAC MAC MAC Switch Pt to Pt Pt to Pt Physical

62 Proceedings of the IEEE, Jan 2007
OR optimization Chang, Low, Calderbank, and Doyle

63 Too clever? Diverse applications TCP IP Diverse Physical

64 Layered architectures
Deconstrained (Applications) TCP Constrained Networks IP Deconstrained (Hardware) “constraints that deconstrain” (Gerhart and Kirschner)

65 Original design challenge?
TCP/ IP Deconstrained (Hardware) (Applications) Constrained Networked OS Expensive mainframes Trusted end systems Homogeneous Sender centric Unreliable comms Facilitated wild evolution Created whole new ecosystem completely opposite

66 Evolution and architecture
Nothing in biology makes sense except in the light of evolution Theodosius Dobzhansky (see also de Chardin) Nothing in evolution makes sense except in the light of biology ?????

67 natural selection + genetic drift + mutation + gene flow
++ architecture

68 Human evolution Apes hands feet skeleton muscle All very different.
skin gut long helpless childhood All very different. weak fragile slow Human evolution Apes strong robust fast How is this progress?

69 Human evolution Apes Biology hands feet skeleton muscle skin gut
weak fragile (slow) Human evolution Apes Biology strong robust (fast) efficient inefficient wasteful

70 Apes Biology Architecture? Hard tradeoffs? weak fragile Evolvable?
strong robust efficient (slow) inefficient wasteful

71 + Biology Architecture? weak fragile sticks stones fire strong robust
+Technology efficient (slow) inefficient wasteful

72 + hands feet skeleton muscle weak fragile skin gut
From weak prey to invincible predator + sticks stones fire strong robust Before much brain expansion? efficient (slow)

73 Key point: Our physiology, technology, and brains have co-evolved hands feet skeleton muscle skin gut weak fragile From weak prey to invincible predator + sticks stones fire strong robust Before much brain expansion? Huge implications. efficient (slow)

74 + Key point needing more discussion: hands feet
The evolutionary challenge of big brains is homeostasis, not basal metabolic load. hands feet skeleton muscle skin gut weak fragile From weak prey to invincible predator + sticks stones fire Fundamentals! strong robust Before much brain expansion? Huge implications. efficient (slow)

75 + Biology Architecture? weak fragile sticks stones fire strong robust
+Technology efficient (slow) inefficient wasteful

76 Human complexity? Consequences of our evolutionary history. feet
fragile feet skeleton muscle skin gut hands sticks stones fire Biology robust +Technology wasteful efficient

77 Doyle and Csete, Proc Nat Acad Sci USA, online JULY 25 2011
This paper aims to bridge progress in neuroscience involving sophisticated quantitative analysis of behavior, including the use of robust control, with other relevant conceptual and theoretical frameworks from systems engineering, systems biology, and mathematics. Very accessible No math Doyle and Csete, Proc Nat Acad Sci USA, online JULY

78 “Seeing is dreaming?” “Seeing is believing?” Cortex Actions
Which blue line is longer? Meta-layers Physiology Organs Prediction Goals Actions errors Cortex Fast, Limited scope Slow, Broad scope .

79

80 delay=death sense Spine move

81 Reflect Reflex sense Spine move

82 Reflect Reflex sense Spine move

83 Reflect Layered Reflex sense Spine move

84 sense move Spine Reflect Reflex Layered

85 Layered architectures
Physiology Organs Cortex Cortex Cortex . Cells Neurons Neurons Neurons Cells

86 Actions Layered Spine Reflex move sense Goals Actions errors Reflect
Prediction Goals Actions Actions errors

87 Cortex Actions Goals Actions errors Meta-layers Physiology Organs
Prediction Goals Actions Physiology Organs Cortex Actions . errors

88 3D Seeing is dreaming Zzzzzz….. +time Simulation Conscious perception

89 Same size?

90

91 Same size

92 Same size

93 Same size? Vision: evolved for complex simulation and control, not 2d static pictures

94 3D Seeing is dreaming Zzzzzz….. Conscious perception +time Simulation
+ complex models (“priors”) Zzzzzz….. Conscious perception . Conscious perception

95 3D Prediction Seeing is dreaming errors Conscious perception +time
Simulation + complex models (“priors”) Prediction Conscious perception . Conscious perception errors

96 3D Prediction Seeing is dreaming Seeing is believing errors Conscious
+time Simulation + complex models (“priors”) Seeing is believing Prediction Conscious perception . Conscious perception errors

97 Our most integrated perception of the world
Seeing is dreaming Our most integrated perception of the world 3D +time Simulation + complex models (“priors”) Seeing is believing Prediction Conscious perception . Conscious perception errors

98 Which blue line is longer?

99 Which blue line is longer?

100 Which blue line is longer?

101 Which blue line is longer?

102 Which blue line is longer?

103 Which blue line is longer?

104 With social pressure, this one.
Which blue line is longer? With social pressure, this one. Standard social psychology experiment.

105

106 3D Seeing is dreaming Zzzzzz….. Conscious perception +time Simulation
+ complex models (“priors”) Zzzzzz….. Conscious perception . Conscious perception

107 Our most integrated perception of the world
Seeing is dreaming 3D +time Simulation + complex models (“priors”) Seeing is believing Prediction Our most integrated perception of the world Conscious perception . Conscious perception errors

108 Actions Actions Goals Goals But ultimately, only actions matter.
Prediction Goals Actions Physiology Organs Actions Conscious perception Prediction Goals . Conscious perception errors

109 Recurring theme: research starts here, but then…
Biological pathways signaling gene expression metabolism lineage source receiver Primary function Recurring theme: research starts here, but then…

110 signaling gene expression metabolism lineage control energy
receiver source control energy More complex feedback materials

111 complexity for robustness
receiver source robustness control efficiency energy materials

112 energy materials Actions Goals fast Actions Goals fast errors control
Physiology Organs Prediction Goals Actions fast Prediction Goals Actions Conscious perception source receiver control energy materials fast

113 Cortex Actions Goals errors Slow, Broad scope Meta-layers Physiology
Organs Prediction Goals Actions errors Cortex Fast, Limited scope . Unfortunately, we’re not sure how this all works.

114 “Seeing is dreaming?” “Seeing is believing?” Cortex Actions
Which blue line is longer? Meta-layers Physiology Organs Prediction Goals Actions errors Cortex Fast, Limited scope Slow, Broad scope .

115 Cortex Actions Goals errors Slow, Broad scope Meta-layers Physiology
Organs Prediction Goals Actions errors Cortex Fast, Limited scope Slow, Broad scope .

116 UAV Cortex Actions Goals errors Slow, Broad scope Meta-layers Fast,
Physiology Organs Actions Prediction Goals errors Cortex Fast, Limited scope Slow, Broad scope UAV .

117 Layered architectures
Meta-layers Physiology Organs Actions Prediction Goals errors Cortex Fast, Limited scope Slow, Broad scope Interface Comms Disturbance Remote Sensor Control Plant Sensor Actuator

118 Layered architectures
Interface Comms Disturbance Remote Sensor Control Plant Sensor Actuator

119 Layered architectures
Comms Disturbance Plant Remote Sensor Actuator Interface Control

120 Layered architectures
Meta-layers Physiology Organs Prediction Goals Actions errors Cortex Fast, Limited scope Slow, Broad scope Comms Disturbance Plant Remote Sensor Actuator Interface Control

121 Next layered architectures
Deconstrained (Applications) Interface Control, share, virtualize, and manage resources Comms Disturbance Constrained Remote Sensor ? Control Plant Sensor Deconstrained (Hardware) Actuator

122 Clothing Lego Money Cell biology
Other examples Clothing Lego Money Cell biology

123 Doyle and Csete, Proc Nat Acad Sci USA, online JULY 25 2011
This paper aims to bridge progress in neuroscience involving sophisticated quantitative analysis of behavior, including the use of robust control, with other relevant conceptual and theoretical frameworks from systems engineering, systems biology, and mathematics. Very accessible No math Doyle and Csete, Proc Nat Acad Sci USA, online JULY

124 Outfit Base Insulation Shell Body Environment Shirt Slacks Jacket Tie
Socks Shoes Coat Shorts Outfit Body Environment Base Insulation Shell

125

126 Outfit Body Environment Base Insulation Shell

127 Outfit Choice= Mgmt/ctrl Garment Garment Garment
Complexity  Robustness Layers must be hidden to be robust Choice (management and control) is more complex than assembly Outfit Choice= Mgmt/ctrl Body Environment Garment Garment Garment Assembly

128 Outfit Body Environment Garment Garment Garment

129 Garment Outfit

130 Outfit Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment
Layering within garments (textiles) Outfit Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment Cloth Cloth Cloth Thread Thread Thread Fiber Fiber Fiber

131 Garments Cloth Thread Fiber

132 Universal strategies? Garments Sew Cloth Weave Thread Spin Fiber Prevents unraveling of lower layers

133 constraints on cross-layer interactions quantization for robustness
Universal strategies? Even though garments seem analog/continuous Garments have limited access to threads and fibers Garments Xform Cloth constraints on cross-layer interactions quantization for robustness Xform Thread Xform Fiber Prevents unraveling of lower layers

134 Networked, universal, layered
Complexity? Networked, universal, layered Control Garments Xform Ctrl Mgmt Cloth Supply Xform Ctrl Mgmt Thread Xform Ctrl Mgmt Fiber Xform Ctrl Mgmt

135 Flux of material Assembly Control << assembly
“weak linkage” (G&H) Garments Assembly Xform Cloth Xform Control Thread Xform Fiber

136 Control Complexity Assembly Control >> assembly Fashion
Design >> construction Supply chain Management >> manufacture assembly transport Garments Control Xform Cloth Assembly Xform Thread Xform Fiber

137 Control >> assembly
Garment Outfit Choice= Mgmt/ctrl Assembly Environment Garments Control Xform Cloth Body Assembly Xform Thread Xform Fiber Complexity Control >> assembly

138 Functionally diverse garments
sew Diverse fabric General purpose machines knit, weave Diverse Thread spin Fiber Geographically diverse sources

139 Outfit Outfit Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment
complementary views Outfit Outfit Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment Cloth Cloth Cloth Cloth Thread Thread Thread Thread Fiber Fiber Fiber Fiber

140 Outfit Base Insulation Shell
Garments fit the standard view of “modules” Strong internal connection Weak external connection OK, but not the most important Outfit Body Environment Base Insulation Shell

141 Outfit Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment
This architectural view of modularity is more fundamental and has two different dimensions: inner to middle to outer garments fiber to thread to cloth to garment Outfit Lack a taxonomy to describe these stack? compose? Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment Garment compose? Cloth Cloth Cloth stack? Thread Thread Thread Fiber Fiber Fiber

142 Layered architectures
Physiology Organs Cortex Cortex Cortex compose? stack? . Cells Neurons Neurons Neurons Cells

143 complementary views of the brain
Meta-layers Physiology Organs Prediction Goals Actions errors Cortex Fast, Limited scope Slow, Broad scope . Sejnowski lab

144 Forward pathways Outfit Assembly Garment materials errors Conscious
Physiology Organs errors Conscious perception Forward pathways Cloth Thread Fiber Garments Xform Assembly Outfit Garment Assembly source receiver materials

145 Control Goals Actions Complexity Goals Feedback >>Forward
Prediction Goals Actions Prediction Goals Conscious perception Choice= Mgmt/ctrl Feedback >>Forward Control receiver source control energy materials

146 Control Complexity Goals Actions Outfit Feedback >>Forward
Physiology Organs Prediction Goals Actions errors Conscious perception Complexity Cloth Thread Fiber Garments Xform Assembly Control Outfit Garment Choice= Mgmt/ctrl Assembly Feedback >>Forward source receiver control energy materials

147 Human complexity Robust Fragile Metabolism Obesity, diabetes
Regeneration & repair Healing wound /infect Obesity, diabetes Cancer AutoImmune/Inflame Start with physiology Lots of triage

148 Human complexity Robust Metabolism Regeneration & repair
Healing wound /infect Efficient Mobility Survive uncertain food supply Recover from moderate trauma and infection

149 Mechanism? Robust Fragile Metabolism Obesity, diabetes
Regeneration & repair Healing wound /infect Fat accumulation Insulin resistance Proliferation Inflammation Obesity, diabetes Cancer AutoImmune/Inflame Fat accumulation Insulin resistance Proliferation Inflammation

150 What’s the difference? Robust Fragile Controlled Dynamic Uncontrolled
Metabolism Regeneration & repair Healing wound /infect Obesity, diabetes Cancer AutoImmune/Inflame Fat accumulation Insulin resistance Proliferation Inflammation Controlled Dynamic Uncontrolled Chronic

151 Controlled Dynamic Low mean High variability Fat accumulation
Insulin resistance Proliferation Inflammation Controlled Dynamic Low mean High variability

152 Death Controlled Dynamic Uncontrolled Chronic Low mean High mean
Fat accumulation Insulin resistance Proliferation Inflammation Controlled Dynamic Uncontrolled Chronic Low mean High variability High mean Low variability

153 Restoring robustness? Robust Fragile Controlled Dynamic Uncontrolled
Metabolism Regeneration & repair Healing wound /infect Obesity, diabetes Cancer AutoImmune/Inflame Fat accumulation Insulin resistance Proliferation Inflammation Fat accumulation Insulin resistance Proliferation Inflammation Controlled Dynamic Uncontrolled Chronic Low mean High variability High mean Low variability

154 ++Technology Biology weak fragile strong robust +Technology efficient
(slow) inefficient wasteful

155 Human complexity Accident or necessity? Robust Yet Fragile Metabolism
Regeneration & repair Immune/inflammation Microbe symbionts Neuro-endocrine Complex societies Advanced technologies Risk “management” Obesity, diabetes Cancer AutoImmune/Inflame Parasites, infection Addiction, psychosis,… Epidemics, war,… Disasters, global &!%$# Obfuscate, amplify,… Accident or necessity?

156 Both Accident or necessity? Robust Fragile
Metabolism Regeneration & repair Healing wound /infect Obesity, diabetes Cancer AutoImmune/Inflame Fat accumulation Insulin resistance Proliferation Inflammation Fragility  Hijacking, side effects, unintended… Of mechanisms evolved for robustness Complexity  control, robust/fragile tradeoffs Math: robust/fragile constraints (“conservation laws”) Both Fundamentals! Accident or necessity?

157 Architecture? Hard tradeoffs? Constraints (that deconstrain) fragile
robust Hard tradeoffs? wasteful efficient

158 fragile Amory B. Lovins, Reinventing Fire robust wasteful efficient

159 Want to understand the space of systems/architectures
fragile Architectures? Hard limits on robust efficiency? Want robust and efficient systems and architectures robust efficient wasteful

160 Layered architectures
Diverse applications TCP IP MAC MAC MAC Switch Pt to Pt Pt to Pt Physical

161 Proceedings of the IEEE, Jan 2007
OR optimization Chang, Low, Calderbank, and Doyle

162 Too clever? Diverse applications TCP IP Diverse Physical

163 Layered architectures
Deconstrained (Applications) TCP Constrained Networks IP Deconstrained (Hardware) “constraints that deconstrain” (Gerhart and Kirschner)

164 Original design challenge?
TCP/ IP Deconstrained (Hardware) (Applications) Constrained Networked OS Expensive mainframes Trusted end systems Homogeneous Sender centric Unreliable comms Facilitated wild evolution Created whole new ecosystem completely opposite

165 Networked OS Architecture
TCP/ IP Deconstrained (Hardware) (Applications) Constrained OS better starting point than phone/comms systems Extreme robustness confers surprising evolvability Creative engineers Rode hardware evolution Facilitated wild evolution Created whole new ecosystem completely opposite Why? Architecture

166 Layered architectures
Essentials Deconstrained (Applications) Few global variables Don’t cross layers Control, share, virtualize, and manage resources Constrained OS Processing Memory I/O Deconstrained (Hardware)

167 Layered architectures Bacterial biosphere
Deconstrained (diverse) Environments Architecture = Constraints that Deconstrain Catabolism AA Ribosome RNA RNAp transl. Proteins xRNA transc. Precursors Nucl. DNA DNAp Repl. Gene ATP Enzymes Building Blocks Shared protocols Deconstrained (diverse) Genomes

168 almost Inside every cell ATP Macro-layers Precursors Catabolism
AA Enzymes Nucl. Macro-layers Building Blocks AA transl. Proteins ATP Ribosome RNA transc. xRNA Crosslayer autocatalysis RNAp DNA Repl. Gene DNAp

169 What makes the bacterial biosphere so adaptable?
Environment Deconstrained phenotype Action Core conserved constraints facilitate tradeoffs Catabolism AA Ribosome RNA RNAp transl. Proteins xRNA transc. Precursors Nucl. DNA DNAp Repl. Gene ATP Enzymes Building Blocks Layered architecture Active control of the genome (facilitated variation) Deconstrained genome

170 Layered architectures
Deconstrained (Applications) Few global variables Don’t cross layers Direct access to physical memory? Control, share, virtualize, and manage resources Constrained OS Processing Memory I/O Deconstrained (Hardware)

171 Few global variables Don’t cross layers Bacterial biosphere
Deconstrained (diverse) Environments Few global variables Architecture = Constraints that Deconstrain Catabolism AA Ribosome RNA RNAp transl. Proteins xRNA transc. Precursors Nucl. DNA DNAp Repl. Gene ATP Enzymes Building Blocks Shared protocols Don’t cross layers Deconstrained (diverse) Genomes

172 Problems with leaky layering
Modularity benefits are lost Global variables? Poor portability of applications Insecurity of physical address space Fragile to application crashes No scalability of virtual/real addressing Limits optimization/control by duality?

173 Fragilities of layering/virtualization
“Universal” fragilities that must be avoided Hijacking, parasitism, predation Universals are vulnerable Universals are valuable Cryptic, hidden breakdowns/failures unintended consequences Hyper-evolvable but with frozen core

174 Layered architectures
Deconstrained (Applications) Few global variables? Don’t cross layers? TCP/ IP Control, share, virtualize, and manage resources Constrained I/O Comms Latency? Storage? Processing? Deconstrained (Hardware)

175 Original design challenge?
TCP/ IP Deconstrained (Hardware) (Applications) Constrained Networked OS Expensive mainframes Trusted end systems Homogeneous Sender centric Unreliable hardware Facilitated wild evolution Created whole new ecosystem complete opposite

176 IP addresses interfaces (not nodes)
IPC App App DNS caltech.edu? Global and direct access to physical address! IP addresses interfaces (not nodes) Dev2 Dev2 Dev CPU/Mem Dev2 CPU/Mem CPU/Mem

177 IP addresses interfaces (not nodes)
IPC App App DNS Global and direct access to physical address! Robust? Secure Scalable Verifiable Evolvable Maintainable Designable IP addresses interfaces (not nodes) Dev2 Dev2 Dev CPU/Mem Dev2 CPU/Mem CPU/Mem

178 Naming and addressing need to be resolved within layer
translated between layers not exposed outside of layer Physical IP TCP Application Related “issues” VPNs NATS Firewalls Multihoming Mobility Routing table size Overlays

179 ? Next layered architectures Deconstrained (Applications)
Few global variables Don’t cross layers ? Control, share, virtualize, and manage resources Constrained Comms Memory, storage Latency Processing Cyber-physical Deconstrained (Hardware)

180 Persistent errors and confusion (“network science”)
Architecture is least graph topology. Every layer has different diverse graphs. Application Architecture facilitates arbitrary graphs. TCP IP Physical

181 Smart Antennas (Javad Lavaei w/ Ali Hajimiri)
Security, co-channel interference, power consumption Conventional Antenna Smart Antenna Smart Antennas 1) Multiple active elements: Easy to program Hard to implement 2) Multiple passive elements: Easy to implement Hard to program

182 Passively Controllable Smart (PCS) Antenna
PCS Antenna: One active element, reflectors and several parasitic elements This type of antenna is easy to program and easy to implement but “hard” to solve (e.g. 4 weeks offline computation). We solved the problem in 1 sec with huge improvement:

183 IEEE TRANS ON SYSTEMS, MAN, AND CYBERNETICS,
JULY 2010, Alderson and Doyle

184 Csete and Doyle

185 Doyle and Csete, Proc Nat Acad Sci USA, online JULY 25 2011
This paper aims to bridge progress in neuroscience involving sophisticated quantitative analysis of behavior, including the use of robust control, with other relevant conceptual and theoretical frameworks from systems engineering, systems biology, and mathematics. Doyle and Csete, Proc Nat Acad Sci USA, online JULY

186 Few global variables Don’t cross layers “Seeing is dreaming?”
“Seeing is believing?” Which blue line is longer? Meta-layers Physiology Organs Actions Prediction Goals errors Cortex Fast, Limited scope Slow, Broad scope Few global variables Don’t cross layers .

187 Complex systems? Control Comms Complex networks Compute Stat physics
Carnot Boltzmann Heisenberg Physics

188 Complex systems? Fragile
Scale Dynamics Nonlinearity Nonequlibrium Open Feedback Adaptation Intractability Emergence Even small amounts can create bewildering complexity

189 Complex systems? Robust Fragile Scale Dynamics Nonlinearity
Nonequlibrium Open Feedback Adaptation Intractability Emergence Scale Dynamics Nonlinearity Nonequlibrium Open Feedback Adaptation Intractability Emergence

190 Complex systems? Robust complexity Scale Dynamics Nonlinearity
Nonequlibrium Open Feedback Adaptation Intractability Emergence Resources Controlled Organized Structured Extreme Architected

191 New words Emergulent Fragile complexity Emergulence at the edge of
Scale Dynamics Nonlinearity Nonequlibrium Open Feedback Adaptation Intractability Emergence Emergulence at the edge of chaocritiplexity

192 “turbulence is a highly nonlinear phenomena”
x z “turbulence is a highly nonlinear phenomena” Blunted turbulent velocity profile Laminar Turbulent

193 Irreducibile? Complexity? Small Large Robust Simple 2d, linear Fragile
Model Small Large Robust Simple 2d, linear Organized Computer Fragile chaocritical 3d, nonlinear Irreducibile? mildly nonlinear highly nonlinear

194 ? Laminar Control? Turbulent Turbulent Laminar fragile robust
Fundamentals! Turbulent Laminar fragile Laminar Control? Turbulent ? robust efficient wasteful

195 Foundations, origins of noise dissipation amplification catalysis
Control Wiener Comms Bode Shannon robust control Kalman Foundations, origins of noise dissipation amplification catalysis General Rigorous First principle Carnot Boltzmann Heisenberg Physics


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