1. Analyzing American Foreign Policy
The Menu for Choice
Analyzing American Foreign Policy

2. I. Models and Ideologies
What’s the difference?
Ideologies
Models

3. I. Models and Ideologies
What’s the difference?
Ideologies
Models
Domain
Values
Facts

4. I. Models and Ideologies
What’s the difference?
Ideologies
Models
Domain
Values
Facts
About the past…
Evaluation
Description

5. I. Models and Ideologies
What’s the difference?
Ideologies
Models
Domain
Values
Facts
About the past…
Evaluation
Description
About the present or future…
Prescription
Prediction

6. I. Models and Ideologies
What’s the difference?
Ideologies
Models
Domain
Values
Facts
About the past…
Evaluation
Description
About the present or future…
Prescription
Prediction
When assumptions clearly stated…
Normative Theory
Empirical Theory

7. B. Three common models of international relations
World System
Key Actors
Goals of Actors

8. B. Three common models of international relations
World System
Key Actors
Goals of Actors
Realism
Anarchy
States
National Interest

9. 1. Examples of Realism RISK
Lord Palmerston: “His Majesty’s Government has no permanent friends, only permanent interests.”
Winston Churchill: “If Hitler invaded hell, I would make at least a favorable reference to the devil in the House of Commons.”

10. 2. Objections to Realism
States are not unitary actors – Realism ignores influences below the state level of analysis (bureaucratic politics, interest groups, public opinion, etc)
Do states pursue the national interest? Realists are divided between those who say “they do” and those who say “they should.” Are all leaders motivated by what’s best for their nation?
What is the national interest? Beyond survival, people disagree.

11. B. Three common models of international relations
World System
Key Actors
Goals of Actors
Realism
Anarchy
States
National Interest
Liberalism
Community
States, IOs, NGOs
Problem-Solving

12. 1. Examples of Liberalism
United Nations
Cultural Exchanges
Free-Trade Agreements
Woodrow Wilson’s Fourteen Points:
“I. Open covenants of peace, openly arrived at....
II. Absolute freedom of navigation upon the seas….
III. The removal….of all economic barriers and the establishment of an equality of trade conditions among all the nations….
IV. …. national armaments will be reduced to the lowest point consistent with domestic safety….
XIV. A general association of nations must be formed under ….mutual guarantees of political independence and territorial integrity to great and small states alike.”

13. 2. Objections to Liberalism
Liberal states practice power politics – US interventionism
Liberalism ignores “relative gains” concerns – mutually beneficial deals will be rejected if leaders believe that the other side will benefit more AND might one day be an adversary

14. B. Three common models of international relations
World System
Key Actors
Goals of Actors
Realism
Anarchy
States
National Interest
Liberalism
Community
States, IOs, NGOs
Problem-Solving
Radicalism
Hierarchy
Classes
Profit

15. 1. Examples of Radicalism
Critique of Foreign Aid and Dependency: “From poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries.”
Investors, Arms Dealers, and World War I
Wealth Transfer Between Americans in the Iraq War: “No Blood for Oil”

16. 2. Criticisms of Radicalism
Difficult to explain changes in foreign policy – class relations are more or less static in capitalist countries, but policies aren’t
War is usually bad for businesses other than arms dealers
National solidarity usually stronger than class solidarity  states actually matter

17. C. A basic model of foreign policy decision-making: The Menu for Choice
Key Actors = Leaders
Goals = Stay in Office, Improve Policy, Personal Gain
World System = Constraint on Leaders
Menu Analogy
a. Some items aren’t on the menu (no opportunity)
b. Some items are on the menu but not desirable (no willingness)
c. Item chosen = preferred, available dish (both opportunity and willingness)

18. 5. Example: Saddam Hussein
Menu
Kick the US out and execute traitors who thought about surrender
As above, but then invade the US to preempt future attacks
Surrender and go into exile
Delay US forces while searching for a way out of the war

19. 5. Example: Saddam Hussein
Menu
Kick the US out and execute traitors who thought about surrender
As above, but then invade the US to preempt future attacks
Surrender and go into exile
Delay US forces while searching for a way out of the war

20. 5. Example: Saddam Hussein
Menu
Kick the US out and execute traitors who thought about surrender
As above, but then invade the US to preempt future attacks
Surrender and go into exile
Delay US forces while searching for a way out of the war

21. D. The Puzzle: How does a State Select From the Menu?

22. II. Predicting Opportunities. A. Levels of Analysis: Higher
II. Predicting Opportunities A. Levels of Analysis: Higher levels control opportunities
System
Region
Dyad
State
Bureaucratic
Group
Individual

23. B. What affects opportunities?
System: Power relative to global and regional leaders  need to know what power is…
Region: “Neighborhood effects” of regime type, trade, and conflict
Dyad: Trade and relative power
State: Power projection capability, stage of development

24. C. Bureaucratic constraints: Models of decision-making
Actors
Goals
Method
Key Concepts
State as Rational Actor (Realism)
States
National Interest
Maximize Expected Utility
Goals, Options, Consequences, Policy Outcome
Puzzle: Why do countries sometimes make inconsistent policy choices?
Answers:

25. 1. Organizational Processes
Model
Actors
Goals
Method
Key Concepts
State as Rational Actor (Realism)
States
National Interest
Maximize Expected Utility
Goals, Options, Consequences, Policy Outcome
Organizational Processes
Roles: Top decision-makers in organization
Interests of organization
Satisficing
SOPs
Incrementalism
Central insight: “Where you stand depends on where you sit.”

26. Features of Organizational Processes
Clienteles: serving interest groups behind organization’s programs
Parochialism: concentration on getting the agency’s job done (blind to trade-offs)
Imperialism: expanding agency operations and taking on more responsibilities

27. Features of Organizational Processes
Incrementalism: slow implementation of new programs
Arbitrariness: use of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) (regularized procedures) for efficiency
Satisficing: Choosing “good enough” rather than pursuing perfection

28. Example: The Air Force and the unlock codes
Air Force forced to install locks (PALs) on nuclear weapons during 1960s.
PALs require secret code to physically enable weapon. Even if missile launched, warhead won’t detonate without code. Prevents unauthorized use of nuclear weapons.
Air Force quietly sets code to – and tells just about everyone involved in the launch process!
1977: Congressional hearings lead Air Force to finally pick a new code

29. 2. Governmental Politics, aka Bureaucratic Politics
Model
Actors
Goals
Method
Key Concepts
State as Rational Actor (Realism)
States
National Interest
Maximize Expected Utility
Goals, Options, Consequences, Policy Outcome
Organizational Processes
Roles: Top decision-makers in organization
Interests of organization
Satisficing
SOPs
Incrementalism
Governmental/Bureaucratic Politics
Individuals: Throughout government
Personal Goals
Bargaining
Players
51-49 principle

30. Features of Bureaucratic Politics
Individuals use informal power to fight organizational constraints: “Who you know…” determines “pull”
Best predictor of bureaucratic decision is weighted median “voter” among stakeholders (bargaining produces coalitions)

31. Features of Bureaucratic Politics
c. Acheson’s Rule: A memorandum is written not to inform the reader but to protect the writer

32. d principle: Decisions appear to be based on overconfidence (incentive to misrepresent 51% certainty as 100% for bargaining purposes)

33. C. Bureaucratic constraints: Models of decision-making
Actors
Goals
Method
Key Concepts
State as Rational Actor (Realism)
States
National Interest
Maximize Expected Utility
Goals, Options, Consequences, Policy Outcome
Organizational Processes
Roles: Top decision-makers in organization
Interests of organization
Satisficing
SOPs
Incrementalism
Governmental/Bureaucratic Politics
Individuals: Throughout government
Personal Goals
Bargaining
Players
51-49 principle
Groupthink
Small group: Leader and key advisors
Leader’s goals
Direct pressure
Unanimity
“Circling the Wagons”
Stereotyping

34. Groupthink: Hierarchic groups reinforce conformity, produce poor decisions

35. III. Predicting Willingness
Selectorate Theory: Emphasizes the political incentives facing leaders. Democratic leaders must keep members of a huge winning coalition happy, so tend to emphasize policies that benefit large groups.
Interest Group Theory: Small, highly organized groups exert more pressure than large, poorly organized groups, distorting foreign policy.
Psychological Models: Where leaders have autonomy, their foreign policies follow certain rules peculiar to their personality. Leaders often obsess over one particular historical analogy.

36. IV. Application to the United States
Opportunity:
Unusually high because of economic, military strength  limits usually encountered where consensus is necessary (i.e. persuasion or “soft power”)
Dominance implies asymmetry: Most threats will be from weaker states and organizations

37. 3. What limits the options open to the American President?
Potential for armed resistance: Major powers can defy US, and even minor powers with nuclear weapons can deter armed attacks
Lack of “soft power” or ability to persuade others that US interests are their own interests
Domestic factors: Organizational resistance, bureaucratic politics, partisanship, public opinion

38. B. What determines the President’s willingness?
Top priority to key public goods: national security (at least freedom from armed attack) and economic growth
Intelligence: must have accurate assessment of costs and benefits (including political ones)
Need to preserve coalition: Large blocs of voters must be convinced that the President is better than “the other guy”
Personality: Is there a way to make predictions based on this, or is it just a way to cover our mistakes?