1. Modeling Pacific Physical and Biological Processes
Fei CHAI
University of Maine
U.S.A. 1

2. Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS):
12-km
Resolution
Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
Sea Surface Height (SSH)
3 day averaged
model output
1993 to 2006
1993
2006
4-km
1-km
12-km

3. First Mode of EOF Analysis of SSH
Model
Satellite

4. How to Link? Fishing Suspension- feeding Nano- Benthivorous Fish
Pelagic
Invertebrate
Predators
Phytoplankton
Seabirds
Deposit-feeding
Benthos
Suspension-
feeding
DOC
Ammonia
Fishing
Detritus
Micro-
Zooplankton
Meso-
Nitrate+Nitrite
Nano-
Planktivorous
Piscivorous
Pre-recruits
Marine
Mammals
spawning
recruitment
Bacteria
How to Link?

5. 3D Circulation-Ecosystem Modeling
Modular Ocean Model (MOM)
Basin scale, coarse resolution (0.5o to 2o),
Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS)
Basin scale, finer resolution (1/2o),
Basin scale, finer resolution (12.5km),
West Coast of the North America (NCOM)
9 Km with physical data assimilation, present
Gulf of Maine (POM)
3 Km resolution with SST assimilation, present

6. Chai et al., 2003 Winter surface NO3 difference (1979-90) - (1964-75)
PDO Index and
Modeled Primary
Production Anomaly
Ekman Pumping Anomaly
and Modeled Chlorophyll
Front (0.2 mg/m3) Anomaly
Chai et al., 2003

7. ROMS-Biology (50-km) Simulated Surface Chlorophyll (mg/m3)
Gulf of Alaska, averaged 15 May - 15 June ( )
1998
1999
2000
1997
Jan.
April
Aug.
Dec.

8. Coupled Bio-Physical Modeling
NRL West Coast NCOM with SeaWIFS Chlorophyll
NRL West Coast NCOM with Model Chlorophyll
Monthly Sequence: June – August 2001

9. Pacific Basin ROMS-CoSINE (12-km) Simulation Annual Mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST)
Modeled
SST (oC)
Satellite
SST (oC) 9

10. Surfare Chlorophyll Comparison in situ, the modeled, and SeaWiFS10
Historical Data
SeaWiFS

11. Seasonal SST Comparison
Observed
QuikScat
NCEP
COADS
Dec
Jan

12. An Individual Based Model (IBM) for Peruvian Anchovy
Model the entire anchovy life history: spawning events, egg hatching, larva development, growth of juvenile and adults
Based on conservation of energy (bioenergetics):
growth=consumption-respiration-egestion-excretion
Input: temperature and four plankton groups from ROMS-CoSiNE; Output: anchovy growth (length and weight)
3D circulation, offline simulation, output: location, length and weight

13. Anchovy Recruitment in Response to ENSO
Strong El Nino
Moderate El Nino
Temperature
diatom
mesozooplankton
Recruitment
mesozooplankton
Recruitment
diatom
There is a clear seasonal and interannual variability characterized by anchovy recruitment to 5cm.

14. Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
El Nino and Peruvian Anchovy Fishery
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
10 x 106 MT
Annual Anchovy Catch

15. GoMOOS - http://www.gomoos.org
Goal
To provide data and data products that serve public
and private sector needs for:
solving practical problems
predicting events, and
further understanding natural systems
in the Gulf of Maine

16. Xue et al., CRS, 2006

17. Modeled Surface
Chlorophyll, April 2002
SeaWiFS
April 2002

18. Comparing with Buoy B, E, I
Black: buoy (night time values)
Red: model
Green: SeaWiFS

19. Challenges and Recommendations
Physical, nutrients, plankton, and higher levels
Improving physical models, data assimilation
Spatial and temporal scales,
Basin-regional-local; seasonal, interannual, and decadal
Surface forcing (wind, heat, fresh water), boundaries
Cannot proceed by simply including more variables
Simplify the problem with focusing on target species
Incorporating structured population and IBM
Considering uncertainties, probabilistic simulations
Better communication