1. World Meteorological Organization
Development of Capacities for Managing Risk Associated with Weather-related Hazards in Middle-East & North Africa
(based on WMO DPM Country-level Survey 2006)
Jaser Rabadi
WMO Regional Office for West Asia, Bahrain

2. Weather-related hazards ….

3. We cannot avoid them ….but we can prevent them from becoming disasters
$ 1 invested in disaster preparedness can save $ of disaster-related losses
Source: World Resources Institute

4. Agenda
Impacts of Weather-, Water- and Climate-Related Extreme Events in MENA Region
How the WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services can help in disaster risk reduction
Analysis of the Response of MENA Countries to the Survey of Meteorological and Hydrological Technical Capacities and Services in Support of Disaster Risk assessment and management
How the WMO can help support Disaster Risk Reduction in MENA

5. Countries From the MENA Region Included in the Statistical Analysis
Algeria
Bahrain
Djibouti
Egypt
Iran, Islamic Republic of
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Mauritania
Morocco
Occupied Palestinian Territory
Oman
Qatar
Republic of Yemen
Saudi Arabia
Somalia
Sudan
Syrian Arab Republic
Tunisia
United Arab Emirates
Red text (14) = Included in the Analysis

6. 1. Facts…MENA Hazards
Red text (14) = Included in the Analysis

7. Distribution of Natural Disasters in MENA Region (1980-2005) Number of events
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium
More than 80 % of natural disasters were caused by Weather-related hazards.

8. Impacts of Natural Disasters in MENA Region Casualties
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium
(99% Sudan)
(90% Iran)
Nearly 70 % of casualties were caused by Weather-related hazards.

9. Impacts of Natural Disasters in MENA Region Economic losses
(45% Iran
43% Algeria)
Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium
45 % of economic losses were caused by Weather-related hazards.

10. 2. Increasing Risks Associated With Climate Change Conclusions from 4th IPCC Assessment Report WG II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Phenomenon
Likelihood
Major projected impacts
Increased frequency of heat waves
Very likely
Increased risk of heat-related mortality, health, impacts on ag., …
Increased frequency of heavy precipitation events
Increased loss of life and property due to flooding.
Area affected by drought increases
Likely
Increased risk of food and water shortage
Intense tropical cyclone activity increases
Increased risk of deaths, injuries, Potential for population migrations, loss of property, ….
Increased incidence of extreme sea level rise
Disruption of coastal echo systems, fisheries, infrastructure, water resources, migration of populations..
Virtually certain >99% probability of occurrence
Very likely 90 to 99% probability
Likely 66 to 90% probability 10

11. WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services’ Capacities, Gaps and Needs in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction in MENA

12. Global Survey of Scientific and Technical Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction
187 National Meteorological and Hydrological Services were Surveyed to Identify:
The hydrometeorological hazards affecting their countries
Their involvement and role in national organizational and governance structures for disaster risk reduction
Their capacities to deliver products and services to support disaster risk reduction
Major gaps and needs related to their capacities
Global Survey of Scientific and Technical Capacities in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction

13. Countries Participating in the Country-Level DRR Survey
44/48
92 %
18/22
82 %
25/34
74 %
10/12
83 %
24/52
54 %
14/19
74 %
139 out of 187 Members (74 %) responded
Least developed
countries:
25/50
50 %
Developing
countries:
85/137
54 %

14. Countries From the MENA Region Included in the Statistical Analysis
Algeria
Bahrain
Djibouti
Egypt
Iran, Islamic Republic of
Iraq
Jordan
Kuwait
Lebanon
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Mauritania
Morocco
Occupied Palestinian Territory
Oman
Qatar
Republic of Yemen
Saudi Arabia
Somalia
Sudan
Syrian Arab Republic
Tunisia
United Arab Emirates
Red text (14) = Included in the Analysis

15. Capacities of National Meteorological & Hydrological Services in Support of Disaster Risk Reduction Capacities vary highly country-by-country
Algeria
Iran, Islamic Republic of
Jordan
Saudi Arabia
Tunisia
Bahrain
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya
Egypt
Globally Averaged Results
Qatar
Oman
Morocco
United Arab Emirates
Sudan
Republic of Yemen

16. Number of responding countries who identified themselves as being affected by specific hazards
Top 10 hydrometeorologocial hazards include strong winds, thunderstorm or lightning, flash floods, sand storms, heat wave, dense fog and drought

17. Archival of Hazard Data vs. Socio-Economic Impact Data
The socio-economic impacts of hazards are archived by only a few countries

18. Warnings which are Nationally Mandated through National Meteorological service, National Hydrological Service, combined service or other agencies
The majority countries are mandated to provide warnings for the top ten hazards

19. Support provided by NMHSs (through expertise, products and services) to agencies responsible for disaster risk reduction

20. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services provide early warning information to:
The majority of NMHSs provide early warning information to government ministries, news media, general public and emergency response services

21. Meaning ????
Capacities or Services, in support of disaster risk management:
Vary highly from country to country;
Capacity development would be needed at different levels.

22. Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate
Energy
Water Resource
Management
Heatwaves
Heavy rainfall / Flood
Tropical Cyclones
Coastal Marine Hazards
Strong Wind
Food security
Transport
Intensity
Health
Industry
Urban areas
Exposure is increasing !
Hazard
Need for
Prevention
and Mitigation
Frequency

23. How Can WMO and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services Help in Disaster Risk Reduction?

24. Disaster Risk Management Framework Derived from Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015
Governance and Organizational Coordination and Cooperation
Risk Identification and Assessment
Risk Reduction
(Prevention & Mitigation)
Risk Transfer
Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends
Exposed assets & vulnerability
Risk quantification
Sectoral planning
Early warning systems
Emergency preparedness & planning
Catastrophe insurance/ bond markets
Alternative risk transfer
EWS are a critical part of disaster risk management
Education, Training and Information and Knowledge Sharing

25. Standardization of input into probabilistic risk modeling ….
Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Assessment
Standardization of input into probabilistic risk modeling ….
Historical and real-time hazard databases and metadata
Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies
Future hazard trend analysis
Short- to Medium-term weather forecasts
Probabilistic climate models –

26. Initiation of WMO “Hazard Programme” in 2008.
Risk Assessment/Partnership UNDP and World Bank Flood, Drought, Tropical Cyclone and Severe Storms
1. Standardized hazard data and metadata
2. Standardized hazard analysis and mapping methodologies
3. Mainstreaming risk assessment in sectoral planning (partners)
4. Capacity development and training
5. Demonstration projects in selected countries
FLOOD
SEVERE STORMS / TROPICAL CYCLONES
DROUGHT
Initiation of WMO “Hazard Programme” in 2008.

27. Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Risk Reduction
Information providers for sectoral planning (agriculture, water resources, transport, tourism, health, etc.)
Early warning systems
Probabilistic forecasting and warnings
Integration of risk information into warning messages
Communication and dissemination
Supporting emergency preparedness and response
Meteorological Services in support of pre- and post-disaster response and relief operations
Shift from emergency response to risk reduction through prevention and preparedness…

28. post-disaster response
Why are early warning systems not working?
Communities
at risk
National to local
governments
In many countries, early warning systems are not an integral part of disaster reduction management and focus remains on post-disaster response
post-disaster response
NATIONAL SERVICES
Meteorological
Hydrological
warning
Geological
Marine
Health (etc.)…

29. Effective Early Warning Systems
Community Preparedness
National to local
governments
supported by
DRR plans, legislation
and coordination
mechanisms
Feedback
preventive actions
Feedback
warning
warning
COORDINATION AMONG NATIONAL SERVICES
Meteorological
Hydrological
Geological
Marine
Health (etc.)
warning
Feedback

30. Effective Early Warning Systems (different view)
National to local disaster risk reduction plans, legislation and coordination mechanisms are critical to ensure emergency planning and response involving 4 technical components
Need for coordination and collaborations among various types of agencies for implementation and strengthening of EWS

31. project in MENA countries
WMO National and Regional Projects for Implementation and Strengthening of Multi-Hazard EWS
EWS Demonstration projects
Europe
France
8 South-Eastern Europe countries (with World Bank and ISDR)
European river basin (transboundary)
Asia
China (Shanghai)
India
North America, Central America and the Caribbean
United States/Canada transboundary
Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador in Central America (with World Bank and IFRC)
Technical Capacity Development for Specific Hazards
Severe weather (Southern Africa and Pacific)
Flash flood guidance system (Central America and Southern Africa)
Sand and dust storm (Middle-East and Northern Africa)
Drought (South-East Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa)
Opportunities to initiate coordinated multi-hazard early warning systems
project in MENA countries

32. Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets
Governance and Organizational Coordination and Cooperation
Risk Identification and Assessment
Risk Reduction
(Prevention & Mitigation)
Risk Transfer
Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends
Exposed assets & vulnerability
Risk quantification
Sectoral planning
Early warning systems
Emergency preparedness & planning
Education and training
Catastrophe insurance/ bond markets
Alternative risk transfer
EWS are a critical part of disaster risk management
Information and Knowledge Sharing

33. Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services for Financial Risk Transfer Markets
Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data
Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, homogenization and analysis
Reliable and authoritative data for contract design and settlement
Forecasts for management of risk portfolio
Technical support and service delivery

34. WMO Initiative in Support of Financial Risk Transfer Markets Partners: World Bank, World Food Programme, Reinsurance, WRMA
Guidelines for standardized data and forecast products
Work with partners on country-specific cases;
Development of standard indices (technical commissions);
Motivating coordinated climate research on understanding of patterns of risk (spatial and temporal correlations);
Modernization of observing networks, data rescue programmes and capacity development of NMHS;
Raise political awareness on benefits of NMHSs products and services (with private and public partners).

35. World Meteorological Organization
How can the WMO support projects in MENA?

36. WMO Strategic Goals in DRR - Key Words
Analyzing and providing hazard information for risk assessment
Strengthening and sustainability of multi-hazard early warning systems
Delivery of timely and understandable warnings and specialized forecasts -- driven by user requirements
Strengthening WMO/NMHS cooperation and partnerships with disaster risk reduction organizations
Public outreach campaigns
Implemented through national and regional development projects leveraging WMO and partners’ resources/expertise.

37. Global Coordination of National Observing Networks & Global Telecommunication System
Coordinated Satellite Activities
Global Observing System
Global Telecommunication System
Global Data Exchange:
WMO Resolutions 40 and 25
Global Data Processing and Forecasting 37

38. Leveraging WMO Regional Forecasting Centers to Assist Members WMO’s Global Data Processing and Forecasting Centres
MENA
Countries
Sharing Resources and Providing Technical Support for Analysis and Forecasting (short to long term)

39. Regional Training Centres
MENA
Countries
Promoting use of relevant new and emerging technologies and techniques for effective provision of meteorological and hydrological services in support of sustainable development

40. National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
24 hours a day, everyday of the year, in every country
National Meteorological and Hydrological Services
Hazard analysis, advisory and warning services for a wide range of hazards
Feedbacks, needs, requirements

41. Examples of Ongoing Disaster Risk Reduction Activities Involving National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in MENA Region
Agriculture: Desert Locust, with FAO

42. Other Disaster Risk Reduction Activities Involving National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in MENA Region
Transport
Water Resource
Management
Health
Industry & infrastructure
Marine
Safety

43. Ongoing Disaster Risk Reduction Activities Involving National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in MENA Region
Across all sectors: Climate Outlooks and El Nino / La Nina updates

44. Local Climate information for local Sectoral decision-making
Improved Information to assess future climate scenarios
WMO/World Bank Project: Africa
Burundi, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Somalia, Tanzania, and Uganda
Downscaling
Local Climate information for local Sectoral decision-making 44

45. Modernization of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in MENA Region: Enhancing Potential Contributions to DRR
Bahrain*
Islamic Republic of Iran
Libyan Arab Jamahiriya*
Oman
Saudi Arabia
United Arab Emirates*
* With support from UNDP

46. WMO and NMHSs Can Participate in Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction Capacities in MENA Region
At the international level, WMO is
Partner of World Bank, IFRC, UNDP, WHO, FAO, OCHA, UNOSAT, and
Member of GFDRR, ISDR System Management Oversight Board. WMO and NMHSs assume a lead role in implementation of Hyogo Framework for Action, particularly related to the second Priority for Action, “Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning.”
At regional and national levels, National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and Regional Specialised Centres (Casablanca, Algiers, Tunis, Cairo, Jeddah) should be considered as partners for disaster risk reduction

47. WMO and NMHSs Can Participate in Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction Capacities in MENA Region
Provision of hazard information data, forecast and mapping to support:
Risk assessment
Sectoral Planning (infrastructure, food security)
Financial risk transfer markets
Capacity development in multi-hazard early warning systems
Operational cooperation of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and National Disaster Management Organizations and RCRC
Providing expertise in assessments and capacity development projects and implementation planning
Coordinated projects among partners to assist countries in a more comprehensive manner

48. Thank You http://www.wmo.int/disasters
For more information please contact:
Dr Jaser Rabadi
WMO Representative for West Asia
UN House, PO Box 26814, Manama, Bahrain
Tel. :
Fax. :
Cell :