1. ETSU Fall 2014 Enrollment Projections
Markov chain Analysis
Mike Hoff, Director
Institutional Research

2. Enrollment projection goal
To estimate the ETSU Fall 2014 Enrollment
Use a model that allows for testing recruitment and retention scenarios
The results will be used to determine how far from goal, 15,500, ETSU appears to be
To provide data which will inform defining college level enrollment improvement plans

3. Assumptions
Assuming a consistent external environment, and assuming that we make no changes to address recruitment and retention, the enrollment and progression patterns of students by class from year1 to year2 will remain stable
This allows for testing enrollment improvement plans because the variable impact is real and measurable
Medicine and Pharmacy Enrollment is approximately stable and recognized as a known quantity

4. Assumptions continued
First-time and continuing freshmen can be combined as a total freshmen count
Masters students, graduate specials, and ed specials can be combined as a total for projection only, but may be divided for goal setting

5. Model
Markov chain
Is a time-series model that looks at past practice to predict future outcome
For enrollment modeling, Markov chain tracks students, by status, from year1 to year2 allowing the researcher to calculate an recruitment rate and dropout rate by class
The recruitment and retention rates are applied to the current standing of year2 to students, adding in new inputs by class for year2, to calculate enrollment for year3

6. Model continued Markov chain was chosen because
It is used by other similar institutions, both in-state, and out-of-state
It uses only institutional data
Studies have shown it is accurate for 1 year projections
Population based models were rejected due to reliance on external projections
ARIMA and other SAS projections were rejected because of complexity without increased accuracy

7. Timeframe Data were collected by year for the years 2008 – 2013,
These years were used to establish a validity test to understand the margin of error in the model
2008 was the first year in Banner
The data were then paired by year into two year groups to allow for projecting the next years enrollment
i.e and 2009 were used to project 2010, etc.

8. 2014 Projected enrollment results of replicating the status quo
Year
Estimate Projected by Model
Actual
Difference
% Difference
2010
14,860.3
14,952
-91.7
-0.617%
2011
15,188.2
15,250
-61.8
-0.406%
2012
15,428.8
15,133
295.8
1.917%
2013
14,967.2
14,691
276.2
1.845%
2014
14,430
N/A
The projection for each year is a function of the actual enrollments from the two most recent prior years

9. Credibility: Is there a margin of error?
Yes, a very slim one, on average +/ %
That yields a projected enrollment range of 14,257 – 14,603
In other words, the model was, based on 4-years history, 98.8% accurate

10. What happened to all our students?

11. What happened to all our students?
39% are leaving, either through graduation or dropout
19% are graduating
20% are leaving through dropout

12. Who are the Undergraduate Dropouts?

13. Who are the undergraduate dropouts
College
Freshmen
Sophomore
Junior
Senior
UG Spec
Total
% of Total ND
277
10.1% UD
284 63 19 1
367
13.4% AS
360
155
151
175
841
30.7% BT
199 76 70 94
439
16.0% CR 30 27 21
172
6.3% CS 12 15 33 52
112
4.1% ED 77 49 51 40
217
7.9% NU
111 43 50
234
8.5% PU 31 13 14 24 82
3.0%
1,168
444
395
457
2,741
100%

14. Who are the undergraduate dropouts – (Exclude UD & ND)
College
Freshmen
Sophomore
Junior
Senior
Total
% of Total AS
360
155
151
175
841
40.1% BT
199 76 70 94
439
20.9% CR 30 27 21
172
8.2% CS 12 15 33 52
112
5.3% ED 77 49 51 40
217
10.4% NU
111 43 50
234
11.2% PU 31 13 14 24 82
3.9%
884
381
376
456
2,097
100%

15. Undergraduate data points of note
1,100 of the 3,212 New and Continuing Freshmen dropout or stop out
Sophomore Enrollment is break-even, new & returning students are almost equal to dropouts
Large Senior population leaving before graduation

16. Who are the Graduate Dropouts?

17. Who are the graduate dropouts
College
Master
Grad Special
Doctor
Total
% of Total ND 97
29.5% AS 44 4 2 50
15.2% BT 19 1 20
6.0% CR 5 10
3.0% CS 12 3 15
4.6% ED 54 7 16 77
23.4% GS
0.3% ME
0.6% NU 25 9 41
12.5% PU
4.9%
169
125 35
329
100%

18. Who are the graduate dropouts
College
Master
Doctor
Total
% of Total AS 44 2 46
22.5% BT 19
9.3% CR 5 10
4.9% CS 12
5.9% ED 54 16 70
34.3% GS 1
0.5% ME
1.0% NU 25 7 32
15.7% PU 9 3
169 35
204
100%

19. What does it all mean? Who needs to be involved?
The Buc Stops here!
Student recruitment and retention is everyone's responsibility

20. Who does it involve? Actions by offices such as these…
All of these offices are recruiting
Offices of Undergraduate and Graduate admission
Scholarship office
Financial Aid
University advisement
Academic & Student Support
Financial Services
Student Engagement & Student Life
Alumni
Administration
Faculty
Staff
Students
Supporters
Community
E-Learning
Cohort programs
Extended Campus
Registrar
Calendar
Housing, Adult, Commuter and Transfer Services
Athletics
TRIO
Veteran’s Affairs
International
Honors
Equity & Diversity

21. The Role of Colleges, Departments, and Programs
Recruitment Retention

22. What must we do
For ETSU to reach the 15,500 goal we must increase recruitment by 8% and retention by 6.5% or some combination yielding at least 1,070 students
An 8% increase in recruitment is 440 students
A 6.5% increase in retention equals 630 students

23. Recruitment

24. Everyone recruits! Category Weight Recruitment Goal Freshmen 38% 167
Sophomore
14% 62
Junior
13% 57
Senior
15% 66
Undergraduate Special 9% 40
Masters
10% 44
Doctoral 1% 4
Total
100%
440

25. Recruitment goals by college
Weight
Recruitment Goal AS
35%
154 BT
19% 84 CR 8% 35 CS 4% 17 ED
17% 75 NU
13% 57 PU 18
Total
100%
440

26. Retention

27. Retention is not just a freshmen problem!
Category
Retention Goal
Dropout
% of Dropout
Freshmen
239
1168
20.5%
Sophomore 88
444
19.8%
Junior 82
395
20.8%
Senior 95
457
Undergraduate Special 57
277
20.6%
Masters 63
294
21.4%
Doctoral 6 35
17.1%
Total
630
3070

28. Retention goals by student level
Category
Weight
Retention
Goal
Freshmen
38%
239
Sophomore
14% 88
Junior
13% 82
Senior
15% 95
Undergraduate Special 9% 57
Masters
10% 63
Doctoral 1% 6
Total
100%
630

29. Retention goals by college
Weight
Retention Goal AS
35%
220 BT
19%
121 CR 8% 50 CS 4% 25 ED
17%
107 NU
13% 82 PU
Total
100%
630

30. College level recruitment and retention goals

31. Overall recruitment and retention goals by college
Weight
Recruitment Increase
Retention
Increase
Total Increase AS
35%
154
220
374 BT
19% 84
121
205 CR 8% 35 50 85 CS 4% 17 25 42 ED
17% 75
107
182 NU
13% 57 82
139 PU 18 43
Total
100%
440
630
1,070

32. What is my part of the pie?
We created the breakdown by college to ensure that as we grow we maintain the proportional distribution of students
These goals will be achieved through a mix of college level and university level activities
The goal today is to identify what is the most reasonable distribution of that responsibility

33. Recruitment: Working Hypothesis
Why are students coming?
Undergraduate
A majority of the work is being done by offices charged with carrying out that function effectively
Smaller share of the work is being carried out by colleges departments
Graduate
Colleges, departments, programs, and faculty play a more direct role in recruitment

34. Retention: Working Hypothesis
Why are students staying?
Undergraduate
A majority of the work is being carried out by colleges, departments, programs and faculty
Smaller share of the work done by offices charged with carrying out that function effectively
Graduate
An even larger majority of the work is being carried out by colleges, departments, programs, and faculty

35. Options Status Quo Change
Keep doing the same thing and assume things will ‘work out’
Change
Use data to develop a plan to have a positive impact on student retention, and enrollment

36. Results of the status quo
Absent a well executed, and successful, enrollment improvement plan ETSU’s enrollment in Fall 2014 is projected to be 14,430
1,070 students short of 15,500 goal
“Status Quo means falling behind”

37. Final reflections on the status quo
Model was 98% accurate over the past 4 years
Model shows we are down, to-goal, 1,070 students
Reaching the goal is best achieved through a combination of Recruitment and Retention

38. Your Goal: Discuss College Level Enrollment Improvement Plans

39. Request: Present a plan in which you believe!
Plans:
Must be college specific
Must be focused on the proportional share of enrollment improvement, using the framework of the working hypothesis
Must be transparent in depicting college engagement for bona fide improvement tactics
Will be assessed using the overall enrollment goals presented
Each plan must clearly and convincingly make the case for achieving a defined percentage of the college recruitment and retention goals
Must include both recruitment and retention initiatives
Will be used to evaluate, by college, positions requested pending available funds
Should depict college assessment of risk

40. Don’t limit your plan Consider Pedagogy & Delivery Systems Curriculum
Bridge Courses
New Markets (International & Domestic)
New Collaborations
Alternative Schedules & Calendars
New Partnerships
New Student Populations
With distinctive career goals
Students who cannot come to main campus (ex. E-Learning, International, Out-of-state, etc.)
Trade impacted workers
Service to others

41. Recruitment Responsibility
What responsibility for recruitment should reasonably reside with –
Individual College, Academic Department, Program, and Faculty
Administrative and Academic Support functions (e.g. undergraduate admissions, graduate school, financial aid, scholarships, bursar, registrar, etc.) and any other office with significant customer service responsibility

42. Retention Responsibility
What responsibility for retention should reasonably reside with –
Individual College, Academic Department, Program, and Faculty
Administrative and Academic Support functions (e.g. undergraduate admissions, graduate school, financial aid, scholarships, bursar, registrar, etc.) and any other office with significant customer service responsibility

43. Student Success Through Focused Recruitment and Retention Enrollment Planning