1. Reskilling the Workforce Driving Strategic Change Through Learning
Dave Wilkins
OSA Platform Lead

2. My Goals Today Help your career
How? Show you new opportunities to add value
Help you see the big picture
How? Connect your mission to the larger business challenge of talent
How? Connect your mission to the larger talent challenges of the nation
Help you think differently
How? Pose some tough questions about where we’re heading

3. Natural Disasters

4. Technology Disruption

5. Strategic Shift

6. How many of you can:
Accurately describe current attrition levels at your company?
Accurately describe attrition for critical roles?
List cost and time-to-hire metrics for critical roles?
List the critical roles at your company?
Describe the key capabilities for each critical role?
Describe the typical career path people follow to get to these roles?
Describe the critical experiences, skills, education for these roles?
Articulate required workforce capabilities next year? Year after?
Articulate company strategy and direction?

7. The Talent Business EY Top Business Challenges? #3 – Managing Talent

8. The Talent Business EY Top Business Challenges? #3 – Managing Talent
“Nearly 20% report that people with the right skill sets are simply not available — a factor that may in part reflect weaknesses in educational systems. This is a weakness that is likely to get worse.”

9. The Talent Business EY Top Business Challenges? #3 – Managing Talent
“Nearly 20% report that people with the right skill sets are simply not available — a factor that may in part reflect weaknesses in educational systems. This is a weakness that is likely to get worse.”

10. Why Skills Shortages? Aging Workforces Smaller Pipeline
One of the recurring findings from economic research over the last few years is that volatility is here to stay.
Does not really matter which index you look at: oil prices, exchange rates or housing starts the picture looks the same and its not one that is easy to predict.
In addition to significant volatility in key indices there are a number of material trends and events that compound the situation:
Economic growth –slowing BRIC economies
Regulation –Dodd-Frank
Sustainability—now a competitive and economic necessity to demonstrate sustainable business practices
Demographics—aging populations in many markets
Trade patterns—Asia, Europe, US, -- return of some onshoring, etc
Technology—cloud, big data, analytics, social, mobility, etc
In light of all this the challenges for modern businesses are magnified – how effective is a detailed annual budget when there is huge uncertainty about the next quarter never mind the next year?
Aging
Workforces
Smaller Pipeline
Capability Mismatch

11. Aging Workforces Worldwide
Country
% Growth
Russia
-8%
Japan
-5%
Germany
-4%
Poland
Italy
-1%
Greece 0%
France 5% UK 7%
China
Brazil
13%
USA
14%
Mexico
15%
Turkey
17%
India
24%
Nigeria
46%
Slow growth, negative growth in developed world
Faster growth in developing world
In US and UK growth is fueled through immigration
Less developed = more growth
Population Growth

12. Labor Force Participation Rates

13. But more of the them work more

14. More older workers = fewer younger
Those older workers who stay in the workforce do so at the expense of the young.
When grandma finally retires, we will have 30 year olds with no work experience or near useless work experience.

15. More older workers = fewer younger
Those older workers who stay in the workforce do so at the expense of the young.
When grandma finally retires, we will have 30 year olds with no work experience or near useless work experience.

16. Younger workers less trained And we train them less… Ugghh
OECD study of work-based skills taught in schools in 29 countries
U.S. ranks dead last
Wharton School professor Peter Cappelli:
In 1979, young U.S. workers: average of 2.5 weeks of training / year
By 1995, average company offered just under 11 hours per year.
By 2011, Accenture found that only 21% of all U.S. employees had received *any* employer-provided training in the past five years.

17. Capability mismatch
“In 2011, when US unemployment exceeded 9 percent, a McKinsey Global Institute survey found that 30 percent of US companies had positions open for more than six months that they could not fill. Despite rising educational attainment across advanced economies, by 2020, the United States may have 1.5 million too few workers with college or graduate degrees and nearly 6 million too many who have not completed high school.”

18. Capability mismatch Up 4.6% McKinsey: Help Wanted Future of Work
In 2011, 26 percent of employers in Europe reported having difficulty filling jobs for lack of qualified talent, particularly technicians and engineers—and 80 percent of Japanese companies reported the same problem.9 In another survey, two-thirds of European CEOs have said their key challenge in the next three years is the limited supply of candidates with the right skills.10

19. Capability mismatch
Up 4.6%
McKinsey: Help Wanted Future of Work

20. Nuances of The Great Recession
During the Great Recession, what was the highest level of unemployment in the US?
What was the highest level for people with a bachelors degree or higher?
What was it for those with only a high school diploma?
How many recruiters factored this into their strategies?

21. How recruiters see unemployment…
Jobs I might be interested in… via LinkedIn
Social Media Manager
Requirements:
15+ years in senior roles in marketing
10+ years of digital marketing
5+ years of social media marketing
Experience with transportation industry a must
Strong preference given for multi-lingual candidates
MBA candidates preferred
Deep expertise in social media with strong personal brand and large follower networks

22. Geography mismatch
McKinsey: Help Wanted Future of Work

23. Structural unemployment
“Firms have jobs, but can’t find appropriate workers. The workers want to work, but can’t find appropriate jobs. … Whatever the source, though, it is hard to see how the Fed can do much to cure this problem. Monetary stimulus has provided conditions so that manufacturing plants want to hire new workers. But the Fed does not have a means to transform construction workers into manufacturing workers.”

24. Who costs more: internal or external?
One final wrinkle:
Who costs more: internal or external?
Who performs better?

25. External Hiring Costs More Delivers Less
External hires aren’t as productive as internal hires; new research suggests that it takes 2 years to get “up to speed”
External hires average shorter tenures than internal hires
External hires average lower performance reviews
Hiring outside = risk to top performers and high potentials
Why?

26. External Hiring Costs More Delivers Less
External hires aren’t as productive as internal hires; new research suggests that it takes 2 years to get “up to speed”
External hires average shorter tenures than internal hires
External hires average lower performance reviews
Hiring outside = risk to top performers and high potentials
“Lack of career development” is #1 reason for dysfunctional turnover
“Training and development opportunity” is #1 driver of employee engagement
“More opportunities to do what I do best” is #1 driver of employee engagement

27. External Hiring Costs More Delivers Less
External hires aren’t as productive as internal hires; new research suggests that it takes 2 years to get “up to speed”
External hires average shorter tenures than internal hires
External hires average lower performance reviews
Hiring outside = risk to top performers and high potentials
“Lack of career development” is #1 reason for dysfunctional turnover
“Training and development opportunity” is #1 driver of employee engagement
“More opportunities to do what I do best” is #1 driver of employee engagement
Despite higher costs, external hires “get significantly lower performance evaluations for their first two years on the job than do internal workers who are promoted into similar jobs.”
“Why External Hires Get Paid More, and Perform Worse, than Internal Staff”

28. OK, so firms can’t find critical talent

29. But they spend crazy money searching

30. Only to pay more for less,

31. And this problem is likely to get worse…

32. What does this mean to you?

33. “Companies should forecast, on a job family basis, how their current workforce will develop over the next 5, 10, and 15 years – taking into account expected recruitment, retirement, and retention. Next, companies should simulate different strategic scenarios to determine the number and type of human resources that their business will demand on a job family level over the same period. Once companies calculate the difference between their expected demand for and supply of labor, they should take dedicated steps to address anticipated shortfalls and surpluses. These steps include redeploying surplus resources to critical functions that are being drained of human resources, boosting internal training so that the current workforce can adapt and shift as needed, or even attracting and retaining retired or semi retired workers in areas with identified future shortfalls.”

34. redeploying surplus resources to critical functions that are being drained of human resources
or even attracting and retaining retired or semi retired workers in areas with identified future shortfalls
How do you know who to move?
And how will they get productive?
And how do they get back up to speed?
boosting internal training so that the current workforce can adapt and shift as needed
How do you identify the best candidates?
And how will do you develop new capabilities?

35. The new talent landscape
Build?
Buy?
Rent?
Virtualize?
Move people around?
The ability to deliver *capability* in response to strategic shock and market opportunities will be a key business differentiator.
And how do they get back up to speed?
boosting internal training so that the current workforce can adapt and shift as needed
And how will do you develop new capabilities?

36. THE LEARNING CONNECTION

37. Addressing the problem
Know the team you have
Know the team you need
Invest in long-term capability development
Empower workers to do this themselves
Switch your default to hiring from within

38. (1) Know Your Team Job history Work experience prior to current role
Expertise developed outside of work
Self-identified expertise & peer-identified expertise
Career aspirations
Top performers and high potentials
Flight risk
Retirement plans

39. Top performer data is ugly
80% of companies don’t know who is a flight risk.
78% of companies don’t know who is on a succession plan.
80% of companies don’t know who has a career path.
65% of companies don’t know much about who they’re retaining.
84% of companies don’t if their development plans are working.
65% of companies don’t know much about Hi-Po’s.

40. Know the people you have
48%
feel that their work history & experiences are not leveraged by their employer
75%
say that their skills go unnoticed
Taleo Research, UK Social Talent Management Report -

41. (2)
Here to There
Understand the capability requirements for the business
New strategic plans?
Geographic expansion?
Map the gaps: what are you missing in order to meet objectives
Assess the best approach to fill-in gaps
Hire, contract, outsource
Skill, knowledge, capability development
Talent transfer – talent mobility
Virtualize

42. Workforce Data – What do we know
Employee Engagement
Competency Skill Gap Analysis
Open \ Vacant Positions
Total Turnover

43. (3) Long-term Roadmap What is the relationship between various roles?
Which roles commonly lead to which other roles?
What paths did top performers take?
What skills, role assignments, knowledge are required?
Which roles share similar requirements – job families?
For critical and strategic roles, we need to think differently:
Use paradigms of leadership development, cohorts and stages
Use paradigms of pilot and surgeon training
Scaffolding models, coupled with social models

44. Competencies are well-established
75% of companies use job / role competencies for selection & promotion
Over half of organizations tie competencies to career planning
91% report training improvements when training is tied to competencies
The next step is to think about building capability. Capability is about business execution and implies not just competency, but experience, judgment, decision-making. You *develop* capability over time.

45. (4)
Empower the Team
Employees need to own their own career development
Make sure it’s easier to move in your company than leave it
Enable personal gap assessment between current skills and capabilities and desired career objectives
Map capability requirements to training and learning interventions
Formal content: WBT, classes, video, documents
Social content: CoP, discussions, expert location, wikis
Action learning: related roles, activities, stretch assignments
Involve the team in defining needs and interventions

46. (5)
Switch Your Default
External hiring costs 18-20% more than internal hiring
External hires perform worse on performance evals for 24 months
High external hiring rates increase risk to existing team
#1 reason for dysfunctional turnover in mature economies? Lack of career opportunities
#1 contributor to job satisfaction? “more opportunities to do what I do best,” “career development opportunities and training” (tie)
Hiring from within means lower cost to new hires, better performance, higher engagement, and reduced turnover

47. Strategic Implications for You

48. Your strategic role
Senior leaders are thinking about talent; it’s a key concern
Agility is also top of mind due to recent and current world events
Demographic shifts will increase this focus in coming years
Competitive global pressures will increase this focus
Educational shortfalls will increase this focus
Get ahead of this need by focusing of capabilities-driven learning programs
Understand strategic direction for the future
Map the gaps
Develop a plan
Earn your seat