The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be

The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be
4/9/2017 The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be jetsons_text.gif My name is Yogi Schulz Welcome to my presentation entitled: “The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be” Thank you Pat McGowan for the invitation to speak at the CIPS Luncheon today. During the time we have together here today, I want to discuss the key trends that will influence the development of the Internet in the years ahead. The Jetsons cartoon series is an example of how the future isn’t what it used to be. While the cartoons are quite futuristic, the flying cars and household robots are unlikely to evolve as depicted in the Jetsons cartoon series. October 2007 Copyright © 2007 by Corvelle Management Consultants Corvelle Management Consultants

Yogi Schulz Biography 4/9/2017 Management Consultants Who am I? I’m the President of Corvelle Management Consultants We offer information technology related management consulting We have executed many project management and systems development assignments for our clients I have written many columns for Computing Canada that focus on project management and systems development themes Three years ago, I began to write columns for the Calgary Herald. These columns have tended to describe the impact of IT developments for a general audience of business managers Earlier this year, I was asked by Microsoft to contribute a regular column to their mid-size business web site I’ve served as a member of the PPDM Association board of directors for about a decade now. The Public Petroleum Data Model helps oil & gas producers improve their data management practices I’ve participated in many industry conferences as a presenter: Project World - 4 years CIPS Informatics - 7 years PMI - Information Systems SIG – 2 years PPDM Association - several years I’ve worked as an information systems consultant for almost 30 years. Much of my experience comes from the oil & gas industry. I founded Corvelle Management Consultants with a focus on Information Technology consulting 12 years ago at the beginning of 1995. President of Corvelle Management Consultants Information technology related management consulting Project management and systems development Computing Canada & Microsoft columnist PPDM Association board member Industry presenter: Project World - 4 years CIPS Informatics - 7 years PMI - Information Systems SIG PPDM Association - several years Corvelle Management Consultants

The Future of the Internet at various points in the past
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be The Future of the Internet at various points in the past 4/9/2017 I want to begin my presentation with a retrospective look at the Internet. The future of the Internet was a lot different from what we believe today at various point in the past The diversity of these futurist statements from the past are a measure of the broad impact that the Internet has had on our society Most other technologies have had a much smaller impact. For example: Steam locomotives went from being the latest, greatest transportation marvel to obsolescence in under 150 years The fax machine went from being the latest, greatest communication marvel to obsolescence in under 100 years I believe the Internet will have a lasting impact on our society that is longer and broader than the impact of most other technologies Here’s the list: Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear war Secure communication was a major design goal for the early Internet System to conduct business with consumers – B2C, among businesses – B2B and with government Platform for perpetrating a get rich quick scheme based on dubious products & services Cheap, fast, shared communication system for everyone that replaces: The telephone system Video conferencing On-demand television A whole new media channel for: Distributing information Delivering entertainment & education Collaborating for business or pleasure System to improve social life: Blogs Social networking Basis for warfare: Disrupt enemy communication Disable enemy weapons Freeze enemy financial assets Avoid casualties on the evening news Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear war System to conduct business Cheap, fast, shared communication system for everyone A whole new media channel System to improve social life Basis for warfare Estonia urged NATO to develop a unified strategy against "cyber-terrorists" today after suspected Russian hackers launched a third wave of attacks on leading government, banking and media websites this week. 19 May 2007 Corvelle Management Consultants

Close to Home 4/9/2017 Close_to_Home_2007_05_15.gif “Great news, Mrs. Janoski! We put a video of your tummy-tuck surgery on YouTube, And it’s currently ranked second!” Corvelle Management Consultants

Evolution from Web 1.0 to Web 2.0
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Evolution from Web 1.0 to Web 2.0 4/9/2017 Web 1.0 End-user input Evolution from Web 1.0 to Web 2.0 The original Web has recently been relabeled Web 1.0 Web 1.0 is/was largely an information distribution mechanism Under Web 1.0, we provide a little information and the Web provides a lot of content, mostly text, back to us Web 1.0 been spectacularly successful in that role The newly emerging Web is called Web 2.0 Web 2.0 is still a highly effective information distribution mechanism like Web 1.0 The major new feature of Web 2.0 is end-user generated content End-user generated content refers to you and me creating content to be shared with everyone on the Web The other more recent trend is that the content coming back to us includes much more multi-media components such as audio and graphics; high-speed Internet access makes this possible Web 2.0 Last modified: Monday, November 13, 2006 Web 2.0 is the term given to describe a second generation of the World Wide Web that is focused on the ability for people to collaborate and share information online. Web 2.0 basically refers to the transition from static HTML Web pages to a more dynamic Web that is more organized and is based on serving Web applications to users. Other improved functionality of Web 2.0 includes open communication with an emphasis on Web-based communities of users, and more open sharing of information. Over time Web 2.0 has been used more as a marketing term than a computer-science-based term. Blogs, wikis, and Web services are all seen as components of Web 2.0. Web 2.0 was previously used as a synonym for Semantic Web, but while the two are similar, they do not share precisely the same meaning. In case you’re wondering, there will be a Web 3.0 and probably subsequent interactions Mostly text content Internet Web 2.0 End-user generated content Multi-media content Corvelle Management Consultants

End-user generated content
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be 4/9/2017 Time's Person of the Year: You WEDNESDAY, DEC. 13, 2006 By LEV GROSSMAN But look at 2006 through a different lens and you'll see another story, one that isn't about conflict or great men. It's a story about community and collaboration on a scale never seen before. It's about the cosmic compendium of knowledge Wikipedia and the million-channel people's network YouTube and the online metropolis MySpace. It's about the many wresting power from the few and helping one another for nothing and how that will not only change the world, but also change the way the world changes. The tool that makes this possible is the World Wide Web. Not the Web that Tim Berners-Lee hacked together (15 years ago, according to Wikipedia) as a way for scientists to share research. It's not even the over-hyped dotcom Web of the late 1990s. The new Web is a very different thing. It's a tool for bringing together the small contributions of millions of people and making them matter. Silicon Valley consultants call it Web 2.0, as if it were a new version of some old software. But it's really a revolution. And we are so ready for it. We're ready to balance our diet of predigested news with raw feeds from Baghdad and Boston and Beijing. You can learn more about how Americans live just by looking at the backgrounds of YouTube videos—those rumpled bedrooms and toy-strewn basement rec rooms—than you could from 1,000 hours of network television. And we didn't just watch, we also worked. Like crazy. We made Facebook profiles and Second Life avatars and reviewed books at Amazon and recorded Pod casts. We blogged about our candidates losing and wrote songs about getting dumped. We camcordered bombing runs and built open-source software. End-user generated content Corvelle Management Consultants

Number of Web Sites on the Web
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Number of Web Sites on the Web 4/9/2017 Number of Web Sites on the Web What makes discussion of the future of the Internet interesting and important? The Internet has become part of our lives during the past decade It’s useful to better understand how: the Internet will influence our lives in the future We can increase Internet benefits for ourselves The growth of the Web provides a partial answer From 1995 to 2007, the number of active web sites has grown from zero to 50 million. The operators of these web sites have invested time and money to build a web presence. In the May 2007 survey we received responses from 118,023,363 sites, an increase of nearly 4.4 million sites from last month. The Internet has added 12.8 million web sites thus far in 2007, roughly on pace with growth in 2006, when the Web gained a record 30.9 million sites. World Wide Web map Shows the connections among web sites schematically World Wide Web map Over 50 million sites Corvelle Management Consultants

World Wide Page Views 4/9/2017 World Wide Page Views Expressed in page views, usage of the Web has been static for some time What’s happening is that many of those web pages have become richer in content so that the page views have not gone up even though the number of surfers continues to climb; especially in China and other parts of the third world Richer content refers to parts of pages updating regularly without creating a new page Examples include stock tickers, temperatures and clocks Corvelle Management Consultants

The Future of the Internet Outline
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be The Future of the Internet Outline 4/9/2017 jetsons_Judy.gif Here’s a summary of the major topics we’ll discuss today: Social computing will expand to business I’ll expand on social computing that I have already introduced We’ll talk about the potential to adopt these concepts for business Internet access will be ubiquitous Internet access is widespread today. It’s not ubiquitous however In time, I think Internet access will achieve its anytime, anywhere goal The Web will become smarter Some of the frustrations we experience in searching will be addressed through the Semantic Web We’re seeing intense Web Services standards development activity today I believe Web Services will reach its goal of connecting organizations in an automated fashion Security will improve We’re all concerned about poor security leading to information being misused, stolen, or falsified I think improvements are just around the corner that will reduce our fears and improve our sense of safety IT products will morph into services The Internet makes it possible for IT products such as hardware and software to morph into services Why license software when you can access the functionality through a browser session? Why buy a server when you can access remote computing capacity? Recommendations Questions & Answers Social computing will expand to business Internet access will be ubiquitous The Web will become smarter Security will improve IT products will morph into services Recommendations Questions & Answers Corvelle Management Consultants

Social Computing Survey
Who has . . . The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Social Computing Survey 4/9/2017 OK; let’s wade into the social computing topic We’re going to make this presentation quite interactive You’ll have a chance to share your Internet experiences and contribute your ideas for how the future of the Internet will improve these experiences Who has . . . created a personal profile on Facebook, MySpace, Second Life? written personal Blog entries? written a review at Amazon? posted pictures at Flickr? posted video at YouTube? produced content for the Web? What about business possibilities? Could similar social computing actions help you build a community in support of your business? Could you apply social computing to solve technical and business problems in your business? created a personal profile on Facebook, MySpace, Second Life? written personal Blog entries? written a review at Amazon? posted pictures at Flickr? posted video at YouTube? produced content for the Web? What about business possibilities? Corvelle Management Consultants

Number of Weblogs 4/9/2017 Number of Weblogs Over 70 million blogs Number of Weblogs There is a huge interest in posting our opinions and sharing conversation with others According to Technorati, in summary: 70 million weblogs About 120,000 new weblogs started each day, or 1.4 new blogs every second 3,000 – 7,000 new splogs (fake, or spam blogs) created every day Peak of 11,000 splogs per day last December 1.5 million posts per day, or 17 posts per second Growing from 35 to 75 million blogs took 320 days 22 blogs among the top 100 blogs among the top 100 sources linked to in Q up from 12 in the prior quarter Blogs by Language: Japanese the #1 blogging language at 37% English second at 33% Chinese third at 8% Italian fourth at 3% Farsi a newcomer in the top 10 at 1% Tracking 230 million posts with tags or categories 35% of all February 2007 posts used tags 2.5 million blogs posted at least one tagged post in February Web references: Corvelle Management Consultants

Daily Weblog Postings 4/9/2017 Daily Weblog Postings Daily Weblog Postings We exhibit an insatiable desire to share our views and opinions with others on a daily basis 1.4 million posts per day Corvelle Management Consultants

Social Computing in Business
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Social Computing in Business 4/9/2017 Example product Personal use of social computing has received most of the attention to date In the future, I believe businesses will also adopt more of the concepts that underlie social computing I think these social computing concepts can produce value for many businesses including oil & gas producers For example, oil & gas producers are in the midst of a major businesses shift away from producing conventional reserves to producing unconventional reserves from SAGD, CBM and tar sands projects To achieve success, these unconventional projects require the multi-disciplinary co-ordination on an unprecedented scale That’s where social computing concepts can produce value Here’s a brief description of an IBM product that enables social computing in a business setting Similar products are offered by others and can be assembled from various open source projects Lotus Connections, includes five basic components: Profiles - Find the people you need Communities - Work with people who share common interests and expertise Blogs - Present your own ideas and learn from others Dogear - Save and share bookmarks Activities - Organize your work and tap your professional network IBM's new social computing platform, Lotus Connections, includes five basic components: Profiles - Find the people you need Communities - Work with people who share common interests and expertise Blogs - Present your own ideas and learn from others Dogear - Save and share bookmarks Activities - Organize your work and tap your professional network Corvelle Management Consultants

New Hobbies on the Internet
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be New Hobbies on the Internet 4/9/2017 How did anyone survive before the Internet? lila_ gif Isn’t it truly amazing how a day after Matthew takes of his shirt, we can all enjoy it? Corvelle Management Consultants

Internet Access Survey
Who has . . . The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Internet Access Survey 4/9/2017 Internet Access Survey Who has . . . experimented with VOIP? used wireless access at Starbucks? At Hotels? found Internet access in remote corners of the world? mooched Internet access from an open WiFi wireless access point? surfed the Web using a phone? Has the Internet become essential to daily life? experimented with VOIP? used wireless access at Starbucks? Hotels? found Internet access in remote corners of the world? mooched Internet access from an open WiFi wireless access point? surfed the Web using a phone? Internet essential to life? Corvelle Management Consultants

Internet Access will be ubiquitous
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Internet Access will be ubiquitous 4/9/2017 internet.gif GIF came from this page: In the future Internet access will be ubiquitous Internet 2 - backbone Support higher volume of traffic: rapid growth in third world countries like China, India, Philippines Improve network management capability: improve availability; thwart those engaged in mischief Enable higher bandwidth applications: IP telephony, IP television, high resolution visualization The changes from IPv4 to IPv6 will produce benefits in the following areas: expanded addressing capabilities header format simplification improved support for extensions and options flow labeling capability consolidated authentication and privacy capabilities IPng - Next Generation Internet Protocol Higher capacity – end-user Wider cable/ADSL availability The networks have grown to cover most urban area Many governments, Alberta included, are making investments to make the Internet available in rural areas gigabit Ethernet and ATM These are higher capacity, improved management capability network protocols VOIP to WiFi to cell phone and back hand off This interoperability has the potential to improve service and reduce costs In some ways ubiquity is good; In other ways ubiquity is bad because we become reachable at all hours of the day & night as well as in all conceivable places Internet 2 - backbone More traffic Better network management Higher bandwidth applications IP version 6 (IPv6) Higher capacity – end-user Wider cable/ADSL availability gigabit Ethernet and ATM VOIP to WiFi to cell phone and back hand-off The end of “getting away from it all”? Corvelle Management Consultants

T-Mobile HotSpot @Home
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be 4/9/2017 The new T-Mobile phone service is an excellent example of how the future turns into the present The idea of a cell phone that can switch back and forth between the cell network and WiFi has been discussed for several years as a neat idea that would provide phoning flexibility and cut costs for customers Now the idea has turned into a reality IPhone-Free Cellphone News By David Pogue, New York Times. July 5, 2007 + $ per month In a Wi-Fi wireless Internet hot spot, all your calls are free Phone hands off your calls from Wi-Fi network to cell network seamlessly and automatically Includes a wireless router for your home Corvelle Management Consultants

PCs vs. Cell Phones Projected Shipments
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be PCs vs. Cell Phones Projected Shipments 4/9/2017 PCs vs. Cell Phones Projected Shipments This chart dramatically illustrates how the mobile Web will take on increasing importance in the use of the Web At any one point in time, we often just need a small bit of information such as a commodity price quote, an outside temperature, a movie theatre address or a stock quote Such data will easily fit onto the small screen of a cell phone Reference: Move over PC - Here comes the handset Friday, November 17, 2006 Over 700 million phones Corvelle Management Consultants

Internet-Capable Cell Phones
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Internet-Capable Cell Phones 4/9/2017 Internet-Capable Cell Phones In North America we aren’t noticing how integral cell phones have become to Web use That’s due to our superior infrastructure that makes PC’s the device of choice Close to half of the cell phones being bought are Internet-capable Manufacturers of cell phones are offering a rich variety of models Cell phones are much more popular than PCs in the third world where cost, a lack of reliable electrical power and an absence of technical support are ongoing problems Many of these cell phones have the Opera mini-browser software installed Expect to see more cell phones, like the model illustrated here, that are capable of showing video Corvelle Management Consultants

Revenge of the PCs?

Who has . . . The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Smarter Web Survey 4/9/2017 Smarter Web Survey Who has . . . not found what you were searching for; even on the fifth page of the results set? failed to re-find a page you’ve seen before? become tired of typing the same personal information over and over? received unexpected/embarrassing pages in the results set? found exactly what you were looking for; only it’s in Chicago? Can our heightened expectations be met? Various advances will soon become more widely available to enhance our experience on the Web not found what you were searching for; even on the fifth page of the results set? failed to re-find a page you’ve seen before? become tired of typing the same personal information over and over and over? received unexpected/embarrassing pages in the results set? found exactly what you were looking for; only it’s in Chicago? Can our heightened expectations be met? Corvelle Management Consultants

The Semantic Web 4/9/2017 The Semantic Web is an extension of the current Web, in which information is given well-defined meaning, enabling computers and people to work in cooperation. The semantic web is a vision of information that is understandable by computers, so that they can perform more of the tedium involved in finding, sharing and combining information on the web. Web characteristic Today – In this column, we’ll talk about how the Web works today Future – In this column, we’ll talk about how researchers expect the Web to operate in a more sophisticated and valuable fashion tomorrow Search evaluation - String matching Today – search evaluates potential results using simple string matching Many search results pages don’t fit what we’re looking for Search evaluation - Contextual understanding Tomorrow – search evaluates potential results using page tagging Search results pages much more likely to fit what we’re looking for Content importance - PageRank Today – a web page importance is greatly influenced by how many other web pages link to it Big improvement over previous technologies but has limitations including being spoofed Content importance - End-user tagging & Automated ranking Tomorrow – Expand on tagging applications like Yahoo's del.icio.us Tagging greatly increases the relevance of search results for us Personal profiles – Limited & Sporadic Today – the modest profiles we create are used in slightly tailored campaigns that urge us to generally explore the web site of the sender For example, Aero Plan, A & E Television, Amazon, Indigo Also, some web sites, like Amazon, point out what others, who have asked for what we've shown an interest in, have also bought Personal profiles – Richer & More consistent Tomorrow – search evaluates potential results using page tagging plus awareness of our interests, education, location and experience For example, more precisely tailored campaigns that urge us to explore the web site of the sender and guide us to specific product or service offerings Spatial awareness – Limited Today – some web sites can relate our IP addresses to our city but not more granular Spatial awareness - Integrated GPS Tomorrow – web sites will be aware of our location within meters; especially if we’re using a cell phone Multi-application integration - Non-existent Today – Offers for related services to airline tickets such as hotels and rental cars are custom crafted For example, product and installation are not integrated Multi-application integration - Noticeable through XML Tomorrow – Airline can notify its partners of your purchase in real time and present a list of services back to you as part of the confirmation page For example, tour offers, tickets to sports or entertainment Web characteristic Today Future Search evaluation String matching Contextual understanding Content importance PageRank End-user tagging Automated ranking Personal profiles Limited Sporadic Richer More consistent Spatial awareness Limited Integrated GPS Multi-application integration Non- existent Noticeable through XML Corvelle Management Consultants

Web Services will connect organizations
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Web Services will connect organizations 4/9/2017 jetsons_office.jpg Mobile agents a mobile agent could be found on a desktop computer, a mobile device such as a PDA, or even in the depths of a server. All we need to know is how to find the agent, and how to communicate with it. Once we have this conceptual framework in place, we have the abstraction and flexibility required to design our system. How mobile is a mobile agent, though? Currently, in order to move from one system to another, or even to communicate amongst themselves, mobile agents need a common platform on which to operate. Thus, in order for our mobile agents to be useful to our business partners (and to ourselves by operating with our partners), we have to share a platform with our partners, something we cannot guarantee being able to do. Even with the best developers in the world, this will take time. In order for intelligent agents to communicate, they would need to share a common language - the best candidate for this would be XML, or SOAP. RosettaNet A self-funded, non-profit organization, RosettaNet is a consortium of major Information Technology, Electronic Components, Semiconductor Manufacturing, Telecommunications and Logistics companies working to create and implement industry-wide, open e-business process standards. These standards form a common e-business language, aligning processes between supply chain partners on a global basis. ebXML ebXML (Electronic Business using eXtensible Markup Language), is a modular suite of specifications that enables enterprises of any size and in any geographical location to conduct business over the Internet. Using ebXML, companies now have a standard method to exchange business messages, conduct trading relationships, communicate data in common terms and define and register business processes. UDDI UDDI creates a standard interoperable platform that enables companies and applications to quickly, easily, and dynamically find and use Web services over the Internet. UDDI also allows operational registries to be maintained for different purposes in different contexts. UDDI is a cross-industry effort driven by major platform and software providers, as well as marketplace operators and e-business leaders within the OASIS standards consortium. WS-<alphabet soup> Web Services Trust Language (WS-Trust) Web Services Security (WS-Security) Web Services Interoperability Organization (WS-I) Web Services Metadata Exchange (WS-MetadataExchange) Web Services Addressing (WS-Addressing) WS-Eventing, the co-authors are proposing a set of fundamental protocols, message formats and interfaces for a Web service to subscribe to events coming from another Web service. WS-ServiceGroup and WS-BaseFaults E-commerce is not dead; E-commerce is resurgent Mobile agents RosettaNet ebXML UDDI WS-<alphabet soup> } WS-Trust WS-Security Web Services Interoperability WS-MetadataExchange WS-Addressing WS-Eventing WS-ServiceGroup WS-BaseFaults E-commerce is resurgent Corvelle Management Consultants

Who has . . . The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Security Survey 4/9/2017 Security Survey OK: who has . . . actually produced a disaster recovery plan after deferring the work for many years? been hesitant about creating a profile? a paper shredder in use at home? their social security number with them? their password written on a sticky note? a firewall, anti-virus and anti-spyware installed at home? I hope I don’t have to ask many of these questions for your office I think the correct answers are obvious Where you gave the wrong answer, you can take action to improve security A whole series of events have heightened security awareness: 9/11 and the ongoing war against terrorism Viruses, worms, hijacked servers and distributed denial of service attacks Perception of increased volatility of markets and businesses leading to an increased desire to understand, manage and perhaps even reduce risks actually produced a disaster recovery plan after deferring the work for many years? been hesitant about creating a profile? a paper shredder in use at home? their social security number with them? their password written on a sticky note? a firewall, anti-virus and anti-spyware installed at home? Foil fraud artists Corvelle Management Consultants

Security will improve 4/9/2017 identification_fingerprint.jpg identification_iris.jpg identification_lips.gif identification_keyboard_typing.jpg RSA_securid.gif usb_key.gif smart_card.gif In the future security will improve Biometric identification: Fingerprint, Palm vein Iris, Lips Keying behavior on keyboard Who wants to kiss their ATM to make a withdrawal; the banks will face serious symbolism backlash from their customers with this idea Technical identification: SecurId USB fob Smart Card Less total freedom to be irresponsible: Authentication will be required Repudiation will become more difficult Will the improvements to security also mean the end of privacy and anonymity? The problem is that all the security monitoring creates electronic records and perhaps video of where we are and what we’re doing I think we need to be concerned that individual liberty safeguards built into our constitutions are not be unduly gutted or subtly undermined Examples: POTMA in Canada at the time of the FLQ crisis Patriot Act in USA after the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center Biometric identification: Fingerprint, Palm vein Iris, Lips Keying behavior on keyboard Technical identification: SecurId USB fob Smart Card Less total freedom to be irresponsible: Authentication will be required Repudiation will become more difficult The end of privacy & anonymity? Corvelle Management Consultants

Software & Hardware Survey
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Software & Hardware Survey 4/9/2017 Who has . . . Software & Hardware Survey Who has . . . objected to software vendor licensing terms? Made any headway? used open source software? Linux, Apache Web Server, MySQL PHP or Perl? experimented with a Linux desktop? installed OpenOffice? Tried to inter-operate with Microsoft Office? contracted for on-demand server computing? objected to software vendor licensing terms? Made any headway? used open source software? Linux, Apache Web Server, MySQL PHP or Perl? experimented with a Linux desktop? installed OpenOffice? Tried to inter-operate with Microsoft Office? contracted for on-demand server computing? Corvelle Management Consultants

IT products will morph into services Software as a Service
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be IT products will morph into services Software as a Service 4/9/2017 Open source software Pay for software usage by the month Web-accessible office software IT infrastructure management IT products will morph into services - Software as a Service Software vendors are changing terms from high upfront license fee to annual license fee Open source software No license fee Realistic service fees Pay for software usage by the month Low upfront fee Cost based on usage Web-accessible office software No installation or installation issues Provides regular updates IT infrastructure management Java Enterprise System Java Desktop System Flat monthly usage fee per desktop; no license fee I think software as a service can be a win-win because: Software vendors receive a more predictable revenue stream Customers are paying in a way that better matches the value profile they are receiving from the use of the software Qbyte online Java Enterprise System A win-win for buyer and seller? Corvelle Management Consultants

IT products will morph into services Hardware as a Service
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be IT products will morph into services Hardware as a Service 4/9/2017 jetsons_jane.gif IT products will morph into services - Hardware as a Service Commodity computing Dell – commodity computing Service oriented architecture Cluster Grid Examples of hardware capacity on demand: Cassatt Corporation HP – on-demand Utility Data Center IBM’s – Capacity on-demand Sun – N1 Grid Service A solution for unpredictable demand swings? Yes Also a solution for sourcing computing infrastructure Commodity computing Service oriented architecture Cluster Grid A solution for unpredictable demand swings? Corvelle Management Consultants

That’s nice . . . What does all this mean to oil & gas?
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be That’s nice What does all this mean to oil & gas? 4/9/2017 Enhancing distributed collaboration Improving work/life balance Enhancing supply chain performance Improving integration of field and head office business processes Addressing the potential of knowledge management That’s nice What does all this mean to oil & gas? The Web plus some exciting software can help us meet these challenges and opportunities Have you considered them? Enhancing distributed collaboration Large tar sands, SAGD and CBM projects require multi-disciplinary and geographically distributed collaboration Improving work/life balance Employees want more flexible work arrangements; most of them are not trying to shirk their work Enhancing supply chain performance Anything we can do to reduce procurement cycle times will have a significant impact on containing the risk of capital cost overruns Improving integration of field and head office business processes Moving data back and forth using XML rather than attachments will help to integrate field and head office business processes Addressing the potential of knowledge management Knowledge management has always been such a fuzzy topic with a rather nebulous benefits case Now communities of practices and knowledge base applications are changing the value perception and its reality The Web plus some exciting software will help us meet these challenges and opportunities Corvelle Management Consultants

Conclusions 4/9/2017 jetsons_George_Astro.jpg Conclusions The future of the Internet will surprise us We tend to under-estimate the pace of progress in technology We tend to over-estimate the pace at which people are prepared to adopt technology The future of the Internet will surprise us We tend to under-estimate the pace of progress in technology We tend to over-estimate the pace at which people are prepared to adopt technology The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Corvelle Management Consultants

Keeping Up 4/9/2017 reality_check_ gif Don’t languish behind, The Internet offers many possibilities! Corvelle Management Consultants

Recommendations 4/9/2017 jetsons_elroy.gif Recommendations Monitor Internet technology developments Experiment using emerging Web services Match technology to business problems and opportunities Pilot Web services in modest ways Don’t over-commit to: Benefits Implementation costs & schedules Customer adoption rates Monitor Internet technology developments Experiment using emerging Web services Match technology to business problems and opportunities Pilot Web services in modest ways Don’t over-commit to: Benefits Implementation costs & schedules Customer adoption rates Can be rewarding & lots of fun Corvelle Management Consultants

Questions & Answers 4/9/2017 Elroy will explain it to you jetsons_Elroy_Upside_down.jpg Corvelle Management Consultants

Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be 4/9/2017 1800, th Ave. S.W. Calgary, Alberta Canada T2P 3H7 Phone: (403) Web: Management Consultants President of Corvelle Management Consultants Information technology related management consulting Project management and systems development Computing Canada & Microsoft columnist PPDM Association board member Corvelle Management Consultants

Software Development Survey
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Software Development Survey 4/9/2017 Who has . . . Who has . . . searched for Open Source software components? Actually implemented any of the software? contemplated installing the Compiere Open Source ERP software application? read about the Open Source Website Content Management System? participated in an Open Source community? considered an open source application to: Control cost? Influence software development priorities & pace? searched for Open Source software components? contemplated installing the Compiere Open Source ERP software application? read about the Open Source Website Content Management System? participated in an Open Source community? considered an open source application? Corvelle Management Consultants

Software development will rely heavily on module re-use
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Software development will rely heavily on module re-use 4/9/2017 Microsoft modules for re-use: ActiveX controls marketplace Language-specific code samples Java modules for re-use: Java applets JavaBeans components Reducing what developers have to code: Operating system scope expanding Application server software capabilities increasing Open source modules increasing in scope/quality jetsons_treadmill.jpg Hype: Software almost writes itself Corvelle Management Consultants

4/9/2017 Supplemental Slides Corvelle Management Consultants

Bibliography - 1 4/9/2017 A Brief History of the World Wide Web A Little History of the World Wide Web Biometric Identification et.wcu.edu/aidc/BioWebPages/Biometrics_Eye.html Classmate PC by Intel Creative Licensing Erik Heinrich, EDGE, September 2004, p. 14 Digital dilemmas The Economist, Jan 23rd, 2003 Electrolux Screenfridge Corvelle Management Consultants

Bibliography - 2 4/9/2017 Future of the Internet and Web Hardware, On Demand Help Drive IBM's Profit Erin Joyce, January 15, 2004 Histories of the Internet en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_history Hobbes' Internet Timeline v7.0 How the internet has woven itself into American life How big brother and big media can put the Internet genie back in the bottle John Walker, Revision 4 -- November 4th, 2003 Corvelle Management Consultants

Bibliography - 3 IBM - Capacity on demand
www-1.ibm.com/servers/eserver/iseries/ondemand/cod/ IBM Makes Social Computing Push For Business Internet News, January 23, 2007 www-142.ibm.com/software/sw-lotus/products/product3.nsf/wdocs/connections Inside Reality - Improve collaborative decision making Internet histories Internet Society Internet2 IPhone-Free Cellphone News By David Pogue, New York Times. July 5, 2007

Bibliography - 4 4/9/2017 Mobile Agents and the Future of the Internet NASA Research and Education Network (NREN) On-Demand Computing One Laptop per Child (OLPC) laptop.org Rich Internet application en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rich_Internet_application theopensourcery.com/xmlria.htm Software as a Service: Choosing an Effective Model Corvelle Management Consultants

Bibliography - 5 Taming the World Wide Web
A rising tide of companies are tapping Semantic Web technologies to unearth hard-to-find connections between disparate pieces of online data by Rachael King

Bibliography - 6 Utility Computing
Unveiling the genius of multi-touch interface design Jeff Han Voice over IP Juniper Networks whitepapers.informationweek.com/detail/RES/ _513.html?src=mu_p_j2e W3C - One Web: Going Mobile Steve Bratt, W3C - One Web: Going Mobile Web 2.0 Directory : eConsultant World Wide Web Consortium

The Future of the Internet at various points in the past - 1
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be The Future of the Internet at various points in the past - 1 4/9/2017 I want to begin my presentation with a retrospective look at the Internet. The future of the Internet was a lot different from what we believe today at various point in the past The diversity of these futurist statements from the past are a measure of the broad impact that the Internet has had on our society Most other technologies have had a much smaller impact. For example: Steam locomotives went from being the latest, greatest transportation marvel to obsolescence in under 150 years The fax machine went from being the latest, greatest communication marvel to obsolescence in under 100 years I believe the Internet will have a lasting impact on our society that is longer and broader than the impact of most other technologies Here’s the list: Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear war The Internet is secure because it has no central store-and-forward computer that’s easy to bomb and re-try feature to re-send packets around routers that have gone off-line for whatever reason Fast communication system for US Department of Defense and its military contractors Then someone said: “Why leave this facility idle except during war?” Global system of hypertext linkages to cross-reference academic documents across computers The academics saw a way to link related documents all over the planet Fast, shared communication system for large corporations Corporations began to see the same benefits as the military A way to apply computing without sending vast sums of money to Microsoft As Microsoft dominance grew, some started to look for ways to use computing that did not involve Microsoft Secure communication system for US political and military leaders during nuclear war Fast communication system for US Department of Defense and its military contractors Global system of hypertext linkages to cross- reference academic documents across computers Fast, shared communication system for large corporations A way to apply computing without sending vast sums of money to Microsoft Corvelle Management Consultants

The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be The Future of the Internet at various points in the past - 2 4/9/2017 jetsons_George.jpg Replacement for Fedexing documents The Internet is seen as a faster, cheaper courier service As documents became increasingly machine-readable, this idea took hold A whole new media channel for: Distributing information Delivering entertainment & education Entertainment like online multi-player games, music, video Online courses have become an entirely new aspect of education; The Internet has eliminated the traditional market areas that each institution saw as its private domain Collaborating for business; webex, SmartBoards, NetMeeting & its competitors Collaborating for pleasure; chat rooms for every conceivable topic under the sun System to: Perform rapid research (with limitations) Conduct business with consumers – B2C Improve social life Get rich quick scheme based on dubious products & services The Internet abounds with sneaky come-ons designed to separate us from our money without delivering value – pharmaceuticals, stock tips, gambling Replacement for Fedexing documents A whole new media channel for: Distributing information Delivering entertainment & education Collaborating for business or pleasure System to: Perform rapid research (with limitations) Conduct business with consumers – B2C Improve social life Get rich quick scheme based on dubious products & services Corvelle Management Consultants

The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be The Future of the Internet at various points in the past - 3 4/9/2017 jetsons_Astro.jpg A software distribution/update mechanism Every software organization now offers updates and patches via the web Some, like Microsoft, offer extensive features to control the cost of software distribution for themselves and their customers Cheap, fast, shared communication system for everyone For communication, the Internet really is a lot cheaper and faster than its predecessors like dialup bulletin boards and private dedicated lines System to conduct business: Among businesses – B2B With government A turbo-charged way to: Defraud the innocent & the naïve Unlikely low mortgage rates or speculative land deals Aggravate & disrupt the lives of many Spam and asking for personal information leading to identity theft Operate a global casino without spending billions Online casinos can be much cheaper to operate than billion dollar buildings in Las Vegas Another example of how major technology innovations are typically forces for good and evil in our society. The VHS video cartridge is a similar example A software distribution/update mechanism Cheap, fast, shared communication system for everyone System to conduct business: Among businesses – B2B With government A turbo-charged way to: Defraud the innocent & the naive Aggravate & disrupt the lives of many Operate a global casino without spending billions Corvelle Management Consultants

The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be The Future of the Internet at various points in the past - 4 4/9/2017 jetsons_bubble_car.jpg Basis for warfare: Disrupt enemy communication Disable enemy weapons Freeze enemy financial assets Avoid casualties on the evening news The Internet was usually described in terms of benefits for communication and education; warfare was far from anyone’s thinking Replacement for: The telephone system Video conferencing As bandwidth costs have continued to decrease, the possibility of using the Internet as a way to compete with monopolistic phone companies has intrigued a number of entrepreneurs A shared infrastructure to enable: Media convergence Wireless communication system On-demand television No one can afford to build the Internet by themselves; as a shared infrastructure, the possibilities become limitless What’s striking about the list of predicted Internet developments is their incredible diversity We have communication as you would expect, but also conduct of business, fraud, gambling and even change in the nature of warfare That diversity speaks to the wide-ranging impact of the Internet If we were listening to a speech about technical developments in say toasters, the big new thing might be toasters that can toast bagels in addition to bread. That toaster development just does not have the same wide-ranging impact of developments in the Internet. Basis for warfare: Disrupt enemy communication Disable enemy weapons Freeze enemy financial assets Avoid casualties on the evening news Replacement for: The telephone system Video conferencing A shared infrastructure to enable: Media convergence Wireless communication system On-demand television Corvelle Management Consultants

U. S. Page Views

Non U. S. Page Views

Media Web Site Traffic 4/9/2017 Media Web Site Traffic Blog sites have grown from 3 to 9 web sites on this chart in less than one year Corvelle Management Consultants

A Brief History of the Internet
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be 4/9/2017 A Brief History of the Internet Copyright © 2004 by Corvelle Management Consultants Corvelle Management Consultants

A Brief History of the Internet - 1
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be A Brief History of the Internet - 1 4/9/2017 1957 U. S. government forms Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) as a defense initiative 1968 ARPANET, the precursor of the Internet, is launched to connect Department of Defense (DoD) with military contractors 1970s ARPA and Stanford develop packet switching - TCP/IP 1971 Ray Tomlinson of ARPANET sent the world's first 1972 Scientist start to use ARPANET for 1973 The term Internet is first used 1981 ARPANET grows to 213 hosts 1982 first Newsgroups established 1983 TCP/IP becomes the standard protocol 1984 The term cyberspace is coined by author William Gibson 1984 ARPANET grows to 1,000 hosts Corvelle Management Consultants

The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be A Brief History of the Internet - 2 4/9/2017 1985 NSFNet begins; takes over Internet 1985, 15 March – first registered domain name was symbolics.com 1989 Tim Berners-Lee wrote the first web client and server 1990 Tim Berners-Lee’s specifications of URIs, HTTP and HTML refined as Web technology spread 1990 The phrase World Wide Web is coined by Tim Berners-Lee. He is considered the inventor of the Web 1990 NSF lifts ban on commercial hosts on Internet 1990 Archie, first search engine, developed at McGill University 1991 PSI Net begins as first commercial ISP 1991 Gopher system - improvement on ftp retrieval developed 1992 Network Solutions wins bid to register domain extensions 1992 Internet reaches 1,000,000 hosts 1993 MOSAIC browser developed at University of Illinois under federal grant Corvelle Management Consultants

The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be A Brief History of the Internet - 3 4/9/2017 1993 Internet reaches 2,000,000 hosts 1993 Netscape Communications is founded 1994 The first bank opens online 1994 Pizza Hut offers online pizza order and delivery 1994 first International World Wide Web Conferences held 1994 Yahoo starts as "Jerry's Guide to the World Wide Web" 1994, 7 July – Fraunhofer Society released the first MP3 software 1995 Internet access providers Compuserve, Aol and Prodigy began 1995 PC-to-PC Voice over IP began by hobbyists in Israel 1995, 3 September – eBay launched 1995, 15 December – AltaVista launched as an Internet search engine 1995 Amazon.com launched 1996 Microsoft feels threatened by Internet growth in importance; re- prioritizes software development Corvelle Management Consultants

The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be A Brief History of the Internet - 4 4/9/2017 1996 Yahoo Internet search engine is launched 1997 The one millionth domain name is registered 1997 Net2Phone Direct (Phone-to-Phone Over IP) launched in the USA 1998 More than 300 million web pages exist; growing by 1.5 million pages per day 1998 VOIP first PC-to-Phone and later Phone-to-Phone connections 1998, 7 September – Google Inc.opens for business 1999 B2C E-commerce, portals and electronic auctions become popular 1999 Consumer high-speed access widely adopted 1999 MySpace.com is launched 2000 B2B E-commerce gains momentum 2000 AOL Time Warner merger announced Corvelle Management Consultants

The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be A Brief History of the Internet - 5 4/9/2017 2001 B2B Marketplaces experiment with mixed success 2001 Internet startup frenzy implodes 2001 eBay reaches $10 billion sales; exceeds 35 million users 2001 W3C Publishes Web Services Description Language (WSDL) 2001 Napster litigation forces it to suspend service 2001 The first live distributed musical 2001 launches 2001 European Council finalizes an international cyber-crime treaty 2001 Code Red worm and Sircam virus infiltrate thousands of web servers and accounts 2002 Having your own Blog becomes hip 2002 A distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack struck the 13 DNS root servers Corvelle Management Consultants

The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be A Brief History of the Internet - 6 4/9/2017 2003 Spam, unsolicited , becomes a server-clogging menace. It accounts for about half of all s 2003 The first official Swiss online election takes place in Anières 2003 SQL Slammer worm causes one of the largest and fastest spreading DDoS attacks 2003 Flash mobs, organized over the Net, start in New York and quickly form in cities worldwide 2003 first Weblog site launched 2003 Second Life launched 2003 Taxes make headlines as larger US Internet retailers begin collecting taxes on all purchases 2003 The Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA) sues 261 individuals for distributing copyright music files 2003 Internet users illegally download about 2.6 billion music files each month Corvelle Management Consultants

The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be A Brief History of the Internet - 7 4/9/2017 2003 Apple Computer introduces Apple iTunes Music Store 2003 Last Abilene Internet segment upgraded to 10Gbps 2004 WS-Security 2004 Google IPO 2004 more instances of DNS root servers outside the USA 2004 VeriSign (VNDS) begins updating authoritative name servers in near real-time 2004 CERNET2 – first backbone IPv6 network in China 2004 Internet Worm, called MyDoom or Novarg, spreads through Internet servers 2004 Online spending reaches a record high - $117 billion, a 26% increase over 2003 2004, 9 November – Firefox Internet browser released Corvelle Management Consultants

2005 YouTube.com is launched 2005 News Corporation's Fox Interactive Media buys MySpace 2006, 14 November Microsoft launches Zune 2006 Google buys YouTube 2007 – Amazon.com sales exceed $ 3 Billion Internet Archive:

Collaboration Software
BaseCamp Huddle Zimbra Asoboo PHProjekt Mindquarry Zoho

Volunteer Collaboration on large projects
The Future of the Internet isn’t what it used to be Volunteer Collaboration on large projects 4/9/2017 Wikipedia is widely seen as the most successful example of the ability of large numbers of volunteers working to produce a monumental achievement There are over 75,000 active contributors working on more than 5,300,000 articles in more than 100 languages. In 2Q 2007, there are 1,779,525 articles in English Wikipedia, Britannica: A Toss-Up Associated Press | 7:53 AM Wikipedia is about as accurate in covering scientific topics as Encyclopedia Britannica, the journal Nature wrote in an online article published Wednesday. The finding, based on a side-by-side comparison of articles covering a broad swath of the scientific spectrum, comes as Wikipedia faces criticism over the accuracy of some of its entries. Nature said in Wednesday's article, which the scientific journal said was the first to use peer review to compare Wikipedia to Britannica. Based on 42 articles reviewed by experts, the average scientific entry in Wikipedia contained four errors or omissions, while Britannica had three. James Murray was a key editor of the First Edition of the Oxford English Dictionary He tracked down and re-gathered the slips collected by a previous editor. He issued a new appeal for readers, which was widely published in newspapers and distributed in bookshops and libraries. Eventually 800 voluntary readers took part. Soon 1,000 slips per day were arriving at the Scriptorium, and by 1882 there were 3,500,000 of them. Corvelle Management Consultants

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