1. The Folly
Laws of Predictions
1.0
Gordon Bell
Microsoft

2. THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING
ACM 97
THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING

3. ACM 97 Copyright  1997 ACM, Association for Computing
THE NEXT 50 YEARS OF COMPUTING
Copyright  1997 ACM, Association for Computing
The files on this disk or server have been provided by ACM. The files distributed by this server have been provided by ACM. Copyright and all rights therein are maintained by ACM. It is understood that all persons copying this information will adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by ACM’s copyright. These works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of ACM. Reuse and/or reposting for noncommercial classroom use is permitted. Questions regarding usage rights and permissions may be addressed to:
Copyright  1997 ACM, Association for Computing
The files on this disk or server have been provided by ACM. The files distributed by this server have been provided by ACM. Copyright and all rights therein are maintained by ACM. It is understood that all persons copying this information will adhere to the terms and constraints invoked by ACM’s copyright. These works may not be reposted without the explicit permission of ACM. Reuse and/or reposting for noncommercial classroom use is permitted. Questions regarding usage rights and permissions may be addressed to:

4. James Burke
Master of Ceremonies

8. GORDON BELL

9. The Folly
Laws of Predictions
1.0
Gordon Bell
Microsoft

10. I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.“
I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. ”
Thomas Watson Senior, Chairman of IBM, 1943
ACM 97

11. Harvard Mark I aka IBM ASCC
ACM 97

12. Predictions require some history.
The computer hadn’t been invented.
Watson’s prediction held for 10 years.
You need history to predict.
ACM 97

14. “
Card readers will peak at 1500 cards per minute by 1974 and then their use will decline.
Advances in cores, wire, and thin film will provide large memories with one million words by 1976. ” “ ”
Navy Delphi Panel 1969
ACM 97

15. I’ll bet we’ll be manufacturing cores in 1980.“
I’ll bet we’ll be manufacturing cores in 1980. ”
H. Lamire VP Manufacturing, Digital 1975
ACM 97

16. A technology can come from nowhere and wipe you out!
MOS memories and micros were introduced in 1972.
By 1976, MOS memories wiped out core memories.
ACM 97

17. Moore’s Law 60%/yr. Memory -- 4 x size every 3 years
10 G
1 G
100 M
10 M
1 M
100 K
10 K
1 K
0.1 K
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
ACM 97

18. “
Moore’s Law predicts 2.55 PetaBytes/chip in 30 years. On 1/97 a U.of Minn. team stored one electron in a cell at this density. ”
Nathan Myhrvold Microsoft, 1/97
ACM 97

20. Top 108 reasons we predict
10. A vision and challenge
ACM 97

21. Top 108 reasons we predict 10. A vision and challenge
7. To plan and avoid surprises
MBA schools say so
To maintain staff & budget
ACM 97

22. Top 108 reasons we predict 10. A vision and challenge
7. To plan and avoid surprises
MBA schools say so
To maintain staff & budget
6. To extract great gobs of money
With a petaflops, we could …
It’s our “Grand Challenge” ...
ACM 97

24. Top 108 reasons we predict 5. You have to: business plans, … grants
4. To stimulate new “zero growth” markets and lure investors into new ventures
ACM 97

25. Top 108 reasons we predict 5. You have to: business plans, … grants
4. To stimulate new “zero growth” markets and lure investors into new ventures
3. A job. “Futurists” do it for pay.
2. To celebrate anniversaries and have conferences
ACM 97

26. Top 108 reasons we predict 1. To bet on the future and earn $$$s.
ACM 97

27. AT&T will not have screwed up its purchase of NCR by 1996.“
AT&T will not have screwed up its purchase of NCR by 1996. ”
anon 1992 ($100)
ACM 97

28. “
By Video-on-Demand will be available and operating in six cities and... ”
Raj Reddy & Ed Lazowska 1992 (winners get fed)
ACM 97

29. “
By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use. ”
Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray 1996 (one paper, loser gets fed)
ACM 97

31. For short-term predictions, bet against the optimist.
They are likely to be wrong.
Longer term, science-based predictions have a good chance wait 11 years (Mead’s Rule)
ACM 97

32. For short-term predictions, bet against the optimist.
They are likely to be wrong.
Longer term, science-based predictions have a good chance wait 11 years (Mead’s Rule)
Organizations usually behave poorer than anyone can predict
ACM 97

34. Gordon Bell “ Future of Computing” at MIT, 1972
Future computers are BOTH cheaper AND faster model posited
Semiconductor companies may make the computers
We need networks, else people are the network that serve computers
Semiconductors (bipolar) just improve for 6 more years “ “ “
Gordon Bell “ Future of Computing” at MIT, 1972

36. Progress will continue for just 6 more years!
One generation beyond the product being worked on
If you are actually doing it as an engineer you tend to be very conservative
ACM 97

37. Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!“
Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace! ”
Gordon Bell and Jim Gray ACM, 1997

38. Outline
Cyberspace: platforms, networks, and cyberization
ACM 97

39. Outline Cyberspace: platforms, networks, and cyberization
Some Laws from failed predictions
Useful exponentials for prediction
Computers we might predict
ACM 97

40. Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information
Coupling to all information and information processors
ACM 97

41. Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information
Coupling to all information and information processors
Pure bits
Bit tokens
State: places, things, and people
State: physical networks
ACM 97

42. “Everything will be in Cyberspace”
Is this a challenge? Our goal? Our quest? or Fate?
Cyberization enables new computing platforms that require new networks to connect them
Infrastructure supports the content
Three evolutionary dimensions
ACM 97

43. Cyberspace: A Network of ... Networks of ...
Body
Continent
Region/
Intranet
Home
Campus
World
ACM 97

44. Cyberspace: one, two or three networks?
Data
Telephony
Television
ACM 97

45. Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space
Computation
Communication
Cyberization
ACM 97

46. Some more Laws from failed predictions to guide the journey into Cyberspace
ACM 97

47. There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.“
There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. ”
Ken Olsen President, Chairman and founder of Digital, 1977
ACM 97

48. “
UNIX is Snake Oil. ”
Ken Olsen 1987
ACM 97

49. I wouldn’t put my company on the Internet.“
I wouldn’t put my company on the Internet. ”
Ken Olsen, Chairman Modular Computer Systems ComputerWorld 1996
ACM 97

50. Equating yourself to the average “user/buyer” is risky
Equating yourself to the average “user/buyer” is risky unless you’re an average user.
ACM 97

51. Navy Delphi Panel Bernstein, 1969“
Some form of voice I/O will be in common use by at the latest!
A computer will interpret simple spoken sentences by 1975. ” “ ”
Navy Delphi Panel Bernstein, 1969
ACM 97

52. “
Speech systems will be commercialized because all significant steps have been made. ”
Harry Olsen RCA Labs, 1962
ACM 97

53. Speech typewriter: With translation: Translated speech:
Microphone è analyzer è code è typer è pages
With translation:
Microphone è analyzer è code è translator è code è typer è pages
Translated speech:
Microphone è analyzer è code è translator è code è synthesizer è output speech
ACM 97

54. Speech predictions are optimistic and have been wrong.
Mobs and especially committees predict poorly.
ACM 97

55. ISDN will be ubiquitous by 1985.“
ISDN will be ubiquitous by 1985. ”
Irwin Dorros, VP Long Lines ATT, 1981
“ Unfortunately, ISDN is still likely to become the ubiquitous connection, by default, for the next 5 years.”
Gordon Bell, ACM 1997

56. Network bandwidth becomes available slower than the most conservative prediction.
ACM 97

57. But to really foul up requires an econometric model!
We under-estimate the devastating power of companies & planners, lawyers & government, to foul up predictions.
But to really foul up requires an econometric model!
ACM 97

59. Parallel processing computer architectures will be in use by 1975.“
Parallel processing computer architectures will be in use by 1975. ”
Navy Delphi Panel 1969
ACM 97

60. “
In Dec computers with 1,000 processors will do most of the scientific processing. ”
Danny Hillis (1 paper or 1 company)
ACM 97

61. DARPA, 1985 Strategic Computing Initiative (SCI)“
A 50 X LISP machine
Tom Knight, Symbolics
A 1,000 node multiprocessor
Gordon Bell, Encore ” “ ”
DARPA, Strategic Computing Initiative (SCI)
è All of ~20 HPCC projects failed!
ACM 97

62. Bell Prize winners 1987-1997 Speedup: 2000X Moore’s law: 100X
Spend more: 2X
ECL è CMOS: 10X
‘87
‘89
‘91
‘93
‘95
‘97
Teraflops
100 Gigaflops
10 Gigaflops
Gigaflops

63. “
Petaflops by 2010 ”
DOE Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI)
ACM 97

64. “ ” 1997-2010: Over a Petaflops is possible Moore’s Law 100-450x
Gordon Bell, ACM 1997
Moore’s Law x
Spend more ($100M è $500M) 5x
Centralization of centers 3x
Commoditization (competition) 3x
ACM 97

65. Parallel processing is a constant distance away.“
Our vision ... is a system of millions of hosts… in a loose confederation. Users will have the illusion of a very powerful desktop computer through which they can manipulate objects.
Grimshaw, Wulf, et al CACM Jan. 1997 ” “ ”

66. Predictions are easy… especially about parallelism. Doing is hard.
Predictions about parallelism were risky… now they are predictable.
ACM 97

67. “ ” “ ” “ ” “ ” “ ” Vannevar Bush c1945
There will always be plenty of things to compute ... With millions of people doing complicated things.
memex … stores all his books, records, and communications, and ... can be consulted with speed and flexibility
Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia
Speech to text
Head mounted camera, dry photography ” “ ” “ ” “ ” “ ”
Vannevar Bush c1945

69. Steve Mann in Cyberspace
ACM 97

70. Moore’s Law is based on data and understanding.
Faith in science and a vision can be used as a predictor…
but being Vannevar Bush and being really lucky helps!
ACM 97

71. Predicting with data when change is exponential
Exponentials let you predict anything you want.
But beware of how you use them!
ACM 97

72. 1. We get more
ACM 97

73. 2. New overtakes old
ACM 97

74. 3. Things get cheaper
ACM 97

75. 4. Newer & cheaper wins?
Old
New
Old
New
ACM 97

76. Bob Lucky, Vice President Bellcore, 1995“
If we couldn’t predict the Web, what good are we? ”
Bob Lucky, Vice President Bellcore, 1995
ACM 97

77. Exponentials change everything
… you can’t see ‘em coming!
ACM 97

78. Internetters growth ACM 97
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
World Population extrapolated at 1.6% per year
Internet Growth extrapolated at 98% per year
‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04
ACM 97

79. Internetters growth ACM 97 World Population TVs & Phones PCs
10000
1000
100 10
TVs & Phones
PCs
“1 Gp by 2000” Negroponte
Internetters
‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04
ACM 97

81. Computing and communication predictions: processing, memory, and networks
ACM 97

82. EDSAC (c1949)
ACM 97

83. Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year
Tera
Giga
Mega
Kilo 1
Processing

85. Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year
Tera
Giga
Mega
Kilo 1
Storage
Backbone
Processing
Memory
Telephone Service 17% / year ??

86. Microprocessor performance
100 G
10 G
Giga
100 M
10 M
Mega
Kilo
Moore’s Law
Peak Advertised Performance (PAP)
Real Applied Performance (RAP) 41% Growth

87. Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year ACM 97 60%= Exaops 40%= Petaops
20%= Teraops
ACM 97

88. New overtakes old
ACM 97

89. Processor performance
1000
100 10 1
0.1
0.01
RISC shift
CMOS microprocessor
Bipolar processors
VAX
9000

90. Things get cheaper
ACM 97

91. Computers by price are stable. Lower priced computers form!
new models come at constant price and increased effectiveness
constant performance, lower price computers come and establish new use
ACM 97

92. Newer & cheaper wins?
Old
New
Old
New
ACM 97

93. “The mainframe is dead! … and for sure this time!”
PRICE
Server PC
ACM 97

94. Predictable computers
The network computer
System-on-a-chip industry
Home Area Network
Body Area Network: “on body”, “Guardian Angel”
ACM 97

95. CMU wearable computers

96. Medtronics Implanted Cardioplastic

97. 4 Experts Predict Bionics Wired, February 1997
Hi-Fi Cochlear Implants 2005
Bionic Limbs 2013
Artificial Vision 2040
Bionic Person (unlikely)
ACM 97

98. Observations on predicting
Existence proofs are essential, otherwise it’s faith and luck.
Numbers and data are our friends.
Bet on predictors who are grounded, intuitive, imaginative, and lucky.
Because it could, doesn’t mean it will.
It’s usually just the economics, stupid!
ACM 97

99. Everything will be in cyberspace
ACM 97

103. GORDON BELL