Chapter 24 http://blue.census.gov/ipc/www/clock.html Populations Chapter 24 http://blue.census.gov/ipc/www/clock.html.

Chapter 24 http://blue.census.gov/ipc/www/clock.html
Populations Chapter 24

Human Population We have seen factors that influence the growth of populations in general. Next we will apply some of these to the human population.

Fig Exponential growth in the human population

G = r x N World Population: 2002

Changes in birthrates and death rates in Sri Lanka
Births - Deaths = r

World Population Events
Time unit Births Deaths Growth Year ,571, ,001, ,570,430 Month ,964, ,583, ,380,869 Day , , ,782 Hour , , ,741 Minute Second

Examine the population demographics of these countries.
Sweden Mexico United States Determine G, N and r

Age structures of three nations
Shrinking Growing Stable Are these growing, shrinking or stable populations?

Your assignment Create a single powerpoint slide containing
Data on your assigned variable for France, Tanzania and the United States (be sure to include units). Explain the impact of curing heart disease and malaria on your variable – OR - Explain the impact of population changes predicted for 2050 your variable. The name of your group members. Go to D2L and put them in the drop box.

Pop. Pyramid http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbpyr.html
N, r, and G Variable Predict N, r, and G Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable Life expectancy Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable Kids/woman Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable Infant Mortality Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable Adult Mortality Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable Immigration Emigration Impact of curing malaria and heart disease on variable Ecological footprint Change of variable in 2050 vs. today Water supply amt./quality Change of variable in 2050 vs. today Population density Change of variable in 2050 vs. today Land use Change of variable in 2050 vs. today Wildness Change of variable in 2050 vs. today

Heart Disease is the leading cause of death in developed countries.
50% of all deaths in US and Europe, typically >50 years old. Caused by obesity, poor diet, lack of exercise, diabetes, and genetic factors. Clot in Coronary Artery

Malaria kills 2-3 million humans
annually (90% of malaria deaths are in Subsaharan Africa) Caused by Plasmodium parasite and transmitted by mosquito Affects primarily children under age of five and pregnant women (Malaria kills an African child every 30 sec)

NOTE, THESE ARE NOT CORRECT
Example: Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States Source: US Census Bureau By: I.M. Smart M.E. Too Tanzania France USA Life Expectancy 65 yrs 75 yrs 70 yrs Curing Malaria No impact Increase Decrease Heart Disease NOTE, THESE ARE NOT CORRECT ANSWERS, JUST EXAMPLES

Next class period we will…
Present your slides in class and use them for discussion. Discuss the impact of curing heart disease and malaria on some of these variables. Discuss the impact of population changes predicted for 2050 on the other variables. This is worth 5 points on the final exam.

Age structures of three nations
Shrinking Growing Stable Are these growing, shrinking or stable populations?

Heart Disease is the leading cause of death in developed countries.
50% of all deaths in US and Europe, typically >50 years old. Caused by obesity, poor diet, lack of exercise, diabetes, and genetic factors. Clot in Coronary Artery

Malaria kills 2-3 million humans
annually (90% of malaria deaths are in Subsaharan Africa) Caused by Plasmodium parasite and transmitted by mosquito Affects primarily children under age of five and pregnant women (Malaria kills an African child every 30 sec)

Examine the data you collected

= X Tanzania France USA N 36,071,000 60,424,000 293,028,000 r Births/1000 population=41 Deaths/1000 population=18 R=23/1000 people Births/1000 population=13 Deaths/1000 population=9 R=4/1000 people Births/1000 population=14 R=5/1000 people G growth rate will be 2.0% growth rate will be 0.4% growth rate will be 0.9% Curing Malaria The population would increase Malaria is common in underdeveloped countries No impact Malaria isn’t common in developed countries Heart Disease No Impact Heart Disease effects mainly developed countries Would increase the population of adults By: Tiffany Tyson, Chantelle Pelzer, and Emily Brickert

N, r, and G for Tanzania, France, and United States
Source: US Census Bureau By: David Feivor Tim Molinarolo Chelsea Enger Nathan Tock Tanzania France USA N (Total Population) 36,071,000 60,424,000 293,028,000 R (Growth Rate) 1.1% -0.3% 0.7% G (Change In) 396,781 (181,272) 2,051,196 Curing Malaria Increase N, r, and G No Impact Heart Disease

Tanzania France USA G r N 864,000 2.4% 36 MIL 300,000 0.5% 60 MIL
G, r and N for Tanzania, France, and United States Source: US Census Bureau By: Mike Loeffler Pete Johnson Tanzania France USA G r N 864,000 2.4% 36 MIL 300,000 0.5% 60 MIL 2.93 MIL 1.0% 293 MIL Curing Malaria Increase No Impact Heart Disease

2 *If a cure for Malaria and heart disease are found, then the populations will increase, and life expectancy will also increase. By: Brittany Conant, Claire Knoble, Wren Walker

Tanzania France USA Life Expectancy 44 yrs 78.8 yrs 76.6 yrs. Curing
Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States & Effects of Curing Malaria and Heart Disease Tanzania France USA Life Expectancy 44 yrs 78.8 yrs 76.6 yrs. Curing Malaria Increase No Impact Curing Heart Disease By: Andrea Fox, Brett Gullicksrud, Rachel Knutson, Katie Penniston, Pangdra Vang Source: US Census Bureau

Tanzania France USA Life Expectancy 44.1 yrs 78.8 yrs 76.6 yrs Curing
Life Expectancy for Tanzania, France, and United States Source: US Census Bureau By: Carrie Dietz Kristin Minter Jenn Moulton Cassie Huettl Ryan Meighan Tanzania France USA Life Expectancy 44.1 yrs 78.8 yrs 76.6 yrs Curing Malaria Increase No Impact Heart Disease

Fertility Rate Per Woman Source: US Census Bureau
USA France Tanzania Fertility Rate per woman 2000 – kids/woman 2000 – kids/woman 2000 – kids/woman Curing Malaria NO IMPACT INCREASE Curing Heart Disease No impact for curing heart disease because the women are above childbearing age. No impact for curing malaria in the USA or France because they are developed countries. Increase in Tanzania because less children will be dying and pregnant women will have fewer complications. By Sara Schlough, Kristine Tresemer, Abby Biesterveld

Women/ Children 7,464/ 18,624 23,076/ 15,066 104,477/ 80,559 Curing
Population of women/children for Tanzania, France, and United States in the year 2000 Source: US Census Bureau By: Brittany Montgomery And Brittany Shipman Tanzania France USA Women/ Children 7,464/ 18,624 23,076/ 15,066 104,477/ 80,559 Curing Malaria Increase No Impact Heart Disease No Impact

Tanzania France USA Infant Mortality 112 (male)/ 92 (female) per 1000
Infant Mortality for Tanzania, France, and United States Source: US Census Bureau By: Katie McNeely, Elissa Bauer, Amy Calhoun, Nick Cerwin, Becca Long Tanzania France USA Infant Mortality 112 (male)/ 92 (female) per 1000 5(male)/ 4(female) per 1000 9 (male)/ 7 (female) per 1000 Curing Malaria Decrease Mortality Decrease Heart Disease No Impact No impact

Infant Mortality for Tanzania, France, and United States
*Sources: US Census Bureau & World Health Organization By: Emily Noel, Christine Benzschawel, & Karin Mueller Tanzania France USA Infant Mortality 109 per 1000 5 per 1000 7 per 1000 Curing Malaria Decrease No impact Heart Disease

Infant Mortality Rate per 1000 births 109 deaths 5 deaths 7 deaths
4. Infant Mortality Rate for Tanzania, France, and United States Source: US Census Bureau and MamasHealth.com By Jackie Henry and Lindsie Miller Tanzania France USA Infant Mortality Rate per 1000 births 109 deaths 5 deaths 7 deaths Curing Malaria Decrease No Impact Heart Disease

Adult Mortality Source: US Census Bureau France Tanzania USA
Adult Mortality (m/f per 1000) 133/60 561/512 140/83 Curing Malaria No Impact Curing Heart Diseases Decrease By: Katie Kratz, Sara Wanless, Marie Fouts

Tanzania France USA Adult Mortality 561-M 512-F 133-M 60-F 140-M 83-F
Adult Mortality for Tanzania, France, USA Source: US Census Bureau By: Casy Dunphy Meghan Jablonski Tanzania France USA Adult Mortality 561-M 512-F 133-M 60-F 140-M 83-F Curing Malaria Subtle impact Heart Disease Decrease

Adult Mortality France Tanzania USA N,R,G Adult Mortality
N= 60,424,000 ppl R= 0.5% growth G= RN = 302,120 ppl N= 33,065,000 ppl R= 2.4% growth G= RN= 704,000 ppl N= 293,028,000 ppl R= 1.0 % growth G= RN= 2,930,000 ppl Info not available on the WHO website, but the death rate is 18 per thousand in the population Males: 140 per 1000 Females: 83 per thousand Will not have a large effect on adult mortality because malaria primarily effects kids Will slightly lower adult mortality because malaria is prevalent in subsaharan Africa Will not have a large effect on adult mortality because malaria is not prevalent in the US Will lower adult mortality because HD is the leading killer of adults in developed countries Will not significantly lower adult mortality because it is not a big killer of adults in Tanzania N,R,G Males: 133 per 1000 Females: 60 per 1000 Adult Mortality Curing Malaria Curing Heart Disease Source: US Census Bureau, World Health Organization By: Pat Kelly, Andrea Keohane, and RAJ

Andrew Trawinski and Sam Callan
Ecological Footprint United States hectares per capita France hectares per capita Tanzania hectares per capita 1.0 hectares =2.471 acres As the population increases over the next 45 years, the concentration of people per hectare will increase which results in a lower ecological footprint per capita. By: Andrew Trawinski and Sam Callan

Burma France Canada Water Availability Population Changes Increase
Source: Nationmaster.com Burma France Canada Water Availability 21,898 cubic meters 3,349 cubic meters 94,353 cubic meters Population Changes Increase Decrease Water Availability for Tanzania, France, and United States By: Kristina Hertel and Vanessa Keller

Tanzania France United States
Water Supply Amount/Quality for Tanzania, France, and the United States Source: nationmaster.com Tanzania France United States Water Supply Amount* (in cubic meters) 3.64 thousand cubic meters 3.26 thousand cubic meters 7.09 thousand cubic meters Freshwater pollution* (in tons per cubic km) N/A 2.49 tons per cubic km 1.14 tons per cubic km Population from present time to 2050 Increases *The increasing populations of France, Tanzania, and the United States in 2050 will cause the water supply to decrease and the fresh water pollution rate to increase. Presentation created by: Ryan Klein, Jackie Rinzel, Kim Skuster, Krista Woolever, and Sarah Kleman

Water Supply Amount and Quality Today
Water Supply Amount and Quality for Tanzania, France, and United States Tanzania France USA Water Supply Amount and Quality Today Water Availability: thousand cubic meters Freshwater Pollution: tons/cubic km Water Availability: thousand cubic meters Freshwater Pollution: 2.49 tons/cubic km Water Availability: thousand cubic meters 1.14 tons/cubic km Water Supply Amount and Quality in 2050 Water Availability: Decrease Freshwater Pollution: Increase *POPULATION PREDICTED TO DOUBLE BY 2050 Water Availability: Same Increase *POPULATION PREDICTED SAME SIZE AS NOW *POPULATION PREDICTED TO BE 1.5 TIMES LARGER Sources: US Census Bureau By: Dena Shefelbine, Scott Szukalski, Klarissa Czys, Whitney Miller, Erik Haworth

In persons / sq. km. Tanzania France USA Today 40.7 110.7 32 2050 81.2
Population Density for Tanzania, France, and United States Source: US Census Bureau International Data Base By: Brian Peters, Alexa Jaime In persons / sq. km. Tanzania France USA Today 40.7 110.7 32 2050 81.2 111.8 45.8

Density (persons per sq. km.)
Population densities for France, Tanzania, and U.S. Source: www. Census.gov/ipc/wwwidbagg.html (001 density) France Tanzania U.S. Population Today Density (persons per sq. km.) 60,424,213 110.7 36,071,799 40.7 293,028,571 32.0 Population 2050 61,017,122 111.8 71,949,135 81.2 420,081,587 45.8 Impact Increase Christina Berggren, Jordan Hauser, and Michelle Huhn

Source: U.S. Census Brureau
Population Density for United States, France and Tanzania Source: U.S. Census Brureau United States France Tanzania Population 2004 293,027,571 60,424,213 36,070,799 2050 420,080,587 61,017,122 71,949,135 Density Increase Slightly Crystal Svoboda, Amanda Zellner, Tony Caauwe, Natosha Hoffmann

Land Use Land Use – percent of total land area available for: cultivated crops (arable land), permanent crops (Permanent), and other areas (Other) such as prairies, pastures, forests, and built-on lands. It is predicted that the population in Tanzania and the United States will almost double, while the growth rate of France is not nearly as high. Country Type of Land Percent of land (%) Prediction for 2050 Tanzania Arable 4.52 Increase Permanent 1.08 Decrease Other 94.4 United States 19.13 0.22 No Impact 80.65 France 33.53 2.07 64.4 By: Breann Sommer, Jens Hogberg, Lindsay Tietz, & James Bodah

Wildness for Tanzania, France, and United States
USA Today 9.30% 0.04% 35.89% 2050 Decrease substantially Decrease Slightly Decrease Tanzania will decrease because they are still a developing country. France will decrease slightly because they have used up most of their unprotected land. The USA will decrease because of our increasing population. Not all of the land will be used because the United States has one of the largest masses of preserved land. All of the countries will decrease in wildness because the world population has not reached its carrying capacity. By: Amy Yoel, Megan Brisch, Alison Smetana, Ethan Lor Source:

# 11 Wildness Michelle Tentis Megan Brennan Rachael Stanze
United States France Tanzania Wildness 35.89% .04% 9.3% Current Population 290,342,554 60,180,529 35,922,454 Growth Rate .92% .42% 1.72% Effect of Pop. On Wildness in 2050 Because the growth rate is positive in all three countries, the wildness will be depleted as a result of necessary expansion.

Examine the data you collected
For each variable, determine the impact of curing malaria and heart disease on that variable.

In developed countries, what happens if we cure heart disease?
Population Consumption Quality of life No significant increase Increase Increases life expectancy, but will also increase heath costs and drain on resources

In developing countries, what happens if we cure malaria?
Population Consumption Quality of life Significant increase Increase Increases life expectancy, but will also dramatically increase use of already scarce resources

Impact of Disease on Population
Which would have a greater impact on world population, curing heart disease or curing malaria? MALARIA

Parasitologist’s Dilemma
What happens if we don’t cure malaria? What happens if we do cure malaria? What could you do to keep population growth low, while still curing malaria? Death rate stays high, population growth is suppressed Death rate drops, population grows more rapidly

What could you do to keep population growth low, while still curing malaria?
Decrease fertility rate per woman Less developed countries More developed countries Spread out the generations Start having children at age 30 vs. 15 Birth-control Abstinence, contraception, sterilization Other Education of women, affluence (wealth)

Why do we want to keep population growth low?
In many poor countries resources are already scarce. Tanzania < 2,000 calories per day France, USA >3,200 calories per day If population increases, available food per person decreases. This leads to increased pressure on the environment and ecosystems around the world

Is there a correlation between consumption and quality of life?
France Tanzania USA Consumption Quality of Life France Tanzania USA Consumption Average Low High Quality of Life Highest Quality Of Life Consumption (ecological footprint)

Is the current level of consumption in the US sustainable?
Tanzania France USA Footprint (ha/person) 1.0 7.3 12.2 Actual resources (ha/person) 0.6 7.4 8.0 Net Difference -0.4 +0.1 -4.2 No, we must import a third of our resources.

Impact of consumption on the environment
Consumption by the average American The US uses liters of water/person/day for drinking, cooking, bathing, sanitation, and watering yards (the minimum amount needed for those things MINUS the yard watering is 50 liters/person/day). In contrast, a country like Tanzania uses less than 5 liters of water/person/day. The average American consumed over 200 pounds of red meat, poultry, and fish in 2000. The average coffee drinker in the United States drinks 3.1 cups of coffee/day.

Impact of consumption on the environment
Consumption by the average American In 2001, the average American produced 4.4 pounds of garbage waste per day (product packaging, clothes, food scraps, bottles, grass clippings, etc., before recycling). Compare this to 2.7 pounds of garbage waste/person/day in 1960. About 91,286 million liters of soda are consumed/year. This is over 300 liters/person/year! In 2001, the United States used million Btus of energy/person and emitted 5.5 metric tons of carbon/person. In the same year, France used million Btus/person and emitted only 1.8 metric tons of carbon.

What is the impact of consumption on the environment?
To make a single 2 gram computer chip requires 1.6 liters of fossil fuel 72 grams of chemicals 32 kilograms (8 gallons) of water

What is the impact of consumption on the environment
What is the impact of consumption on the environment? (compare Tanzania with France/USA) Tanzania France USA Pesticide use (kg/hectare) 600 3000 1600 Fertilizer use (kg/hectare) 7 263 112 SO4 produced (tons/km2) 100 1000 Water pollution (tons/km3) 0.1 2.5 1.1 Wilderness remaining 9.3% 0.04% 36% Ecological footprint 1 7.3 12.2

What is the impact of population density on the environment
What is the impact of population density on the environment? (compare France with the USA) Tanzania France USA Pesticide use (kg/hectare) 600 3000 1600 Fertilizer use (kg/hectare) 7 263 112 SO4 produced (tons/km2) 100 1000 Water pollution (tons/km3) 0.1 2.5 1.1 Wilderness remaining 9.3% 0.04% 36% Population Density (people/km2) 40 110 31

Parasitologist’s Dilemma
Should we try to cure malaria? Given your answer, are there other actions we should take at the same time?

Is there hope?

What type of growth is this?
Logistic N

What determines K for humans?
Adapt our environment to meet our needs rather than adapt to our environment. Predation Only ourselves Parasites Sanitation Medications Competition Mass extinctions

What is K for humans?

K = 1010 people? Is this sustainable?

Feeding the world World’s farmers have doubled the food supply since 1973 Miracle wheat seeds and high yielding rice Irrigation Fertilizers and pesticides Genetically modified crops Actually have more food/person than in 1973

Agricultural Production per Person has remained relatively constant

Top 5 countries by population (2003)
1 China 1,286,975,468 2 India 1,049,700,118 3 United States ,342,554 4 Indonesia ,893,453 5 Brazil ,032,604

Population x Consumption = Environmental Impact
(hect/person) Impact (hectares) China 1,286,975,468 1.8 2,316,555,842 India 1,049,700,118 1.0 United States 290,342,554 12.7 3,687,350,436 Indonesia 234,893,453 1.5 352,340,180 Brazil 182,032,604 2.6 473,284,770

Sustainable Development: Land Used < Land Available
Impact (hectares) Available Difference China 2,316,555,842 1,544,370,562 -772,185,281 India 1,049,700,118 656,062,574 -393,637,544 United States 3,687,350,436 2,322,740,432 -1,364,610,004 Indonesia 352,340,180 610,722,978 258,382,798 Brazil 473,284,770 1,019,382,582 546,097,812

Ecological impact Impact = population X consumption
Americans consume more per capita than anyone else on earth. It would take 3.28 billion Indians to consume what 290 million Americans do.

Sustainable development
A balance between population and consumption within the limits imposed by nature Need to achieve sustainability Reduction in pop growth in developing nations Reduction in consumption in developed nations

The End

Population pyramids for Tanzania 2000 2025 2050

Population pyramids for France 2000 2025 2050

Population pyramids for United States 2000 2025 2050

General Pop. Stats. Tanzania France USA Pop. (in millions) 36.0 59.5 285.9 Infant Mortality (death/1000 live births) 104 5 8 Fertility rate 5.5 1.7 2.0 Life birth 46 72 76 Child mortality (per 1000) 159 Adult mortality (per 1000) 526 97 113 Health expenditure/ capita (Intl. $) 36 2,335 4,499

Growth (G=r x N) Tanzania France USA r (%) 2.9 0.4 1.1 N 35,964,000 59,452,000 285,925,000 G 1,042,956 237,808 3,145,175

Chapter 24 http://blue.census.gov/ipc/www/clock.html Populations Chapter 24 http://blue.census.gov/ipc/www/clock.html.

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Chapter 24 http://blue.census.gov/ipc/www/clock.html Populations Chapter 24 http://blue.census.gov/ipc/www/clock.html.

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