1. Washington State Energy Past / Present / Future
Tim Stearns
Senior Energy Policy Specialist
Washington State Department of Commerce

2. people
cost
secure
sustainable
pollution
portability
reliability

3. Energy Economy Environment
The Three E’s are closely linked - Energy, Environment, and Economy
Energy Policy Division – understand, analyze, and provide options to shape/direct those interrelationships for the benefit of Washington Citizens
Read our policy goal - Working for an Economically and Environmentally Sound Energy Future

4. “…Americans generally won't acknowledge conflicts and make choices
“…Americans generally won't acknowledge conflicts and make choices. The cry is for low prices, ample supplies, absolute reliability, clean air, no disfiguring construction projects, local autonomy and national accountability. Great. Unfortunately, there are tensions among all these goals.”
Paul Samuelson, Washington Post, August 20, 2003

8. Washington State’s Energy Profile

10. Washington’s emerging challenges
State grows 130,000 people per year
1.3 million per decade – double < 50 yr
273 to house, feed, employ, transport, educate…
300 new megawatts per year
Can we double system in 50 years?
No new dams sites – 15,000 miles lines
New subdivision – apartment
Car culture – walkable communities?

12. Expenditures on Fossil Fuels Washington State: 1999-2008
Despite being awash in energy, we send billions of dollars out of our state economy each year to acquire energy.
This graph shows our state-wide expenditures on fossil fuels over the past decade or so. The top blue line is the dollar amount in constant 2000 dollars, reaching $16B in The lower line shows the expenditures as a percent of gross state product, rising to nearly 5% of our state’s economic output last year.
Yes, things have dropped off this year quite a bit, but the question is what will happen as the world economy recovers?
And, more to the point, if you were running a business where one of the expense lines on your income statement had risen by over three times in the last nine years, I expect you would be focusing on how to better manage that expense. We need to do no less as collective stewards of our state’s economy.
Excludes fuel taxes, refinery and pipeline costs and profits Sources: EIA, BEA and Sightline

13. Today
11 million people
Largest hydrosystem
Fossil fuel transportation
imported
Car based
Plenty of inefficiency
Centralized generation
Future
20 + million
Integrated system
Clean fuel
Locally produced
Transit and vehicles
Zero energy buildings
distributed

15. Energy is a Big Part of “Green” Jobs

16. people
heat
light
cooking
manufacturing
transportation
information

17. The Science of Climate Change is Very Strong
“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the
observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.”
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007 Synthesis Report

18. WA Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2005)
Total = 94.8 million metric tons CO2-equivalent

19. State Targets - Reduce Emissions Grow Our Economy
By 2020 reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels
By 2035 reduce emissions to 25% below 1990 levels
By 2050 reduce emissions to 50% below 1990 levels
By 2020 increase the number of clean energy sector jobs to 25, from the 8,400 jobs in 2004
By 2020 reduce expenditures by 20% on fuel imported into the state

20. Efficiency

21. “Six Americas”—six groups or “publics” beliefs, attitudes, risk perceptions, motivations, values, policy preferences, behaviors and barriers to action
1. Alarmed—16 percent of Americans—are eager to get on with solutions
2. Concerned—29 percent—know climate change is happening, human caused and serious, but they don’t necessarily see the urgency. 3. Cautious—25 percent—happening natural or human-caused.
4. Disengaged—8 percent—have heard of global warming but don’t know
5. Doubtful—13 percent—don’t think it’s happening, or natural.
6. Dismissive—8 percent—convinced not happening, hoax or a plot.
Listen - values - motivations common ground.

23. Energy efficiency always should be America’s highest-priority energy resource. Cheap clean reliable secure

26. Conservation is Cost-effective Under Many Different Future Scenarios
In addition, analysis of several alternative assumptions about carbon control policies shows that regardless of the existence or the form of carbon policies aggressive conservation remains cost-effective.
This is a powerful finding that place conservation policies at the top of the Council’s priorities.
Source: NW Power and Conservation Council - Draft 6th Plan

27. Renewable Energy

28. Washington’s First Renewable “Revolution”
Much of WA Post WWII Economy Tied to Inexpensive Renewable Electricity
Aluminum Industry
Defense Industry
Forest Products, Chemical
Rural Electrification

29. * Renewable Portfolio Standards 29 states & DC have an RPS †
State renewable portfolio standard
State renewable portfolio goal
/ October 2009
Solar water heating eligible * †
Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables
Includes non-renewable alternative resources
WA: 15% by 2020*
NV: 25% by 2025*
AZ: 15% by 2025
NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)
10% by 2020 (co-ops)
HI: 40% by 2030
Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement
TX: 5,880 MW by 2015
UT: 20% by 2025*
CO: 20% by 2020 (IOUs)
10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*
MT: 15% by 2015
ND: 10% by 2015
SD: 10% by 2015
IA: 105 MW
MN: 25% by 2025
(Xcel: 30% by 2020)
MO: 15% by 2021
WI: Varies by utility; 10% by 2015 goal
MI: 10% + 1,100 MW by 2015*
OH: 25% by 2025†
ME: 30% by 2000
New RE: 10% by 2017
NH: 23.8% by 2025
MA: 15% by % annual increase (Class I Renewables)
RI: 16% by 2020
CT: 23% by 2020
NY: 24% by 2013
NJ: 22.5% by 2021
PA: 18% by 2020†
MD: 20% by 2022
DE: 20% by 2019*
DC: 20% by 2020
VA: 15% by 2025*
NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs)
10% by 2018 (co-ops & munis)
VT: (1) RE meets any increase in retail sales by 2012; (2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017
29 states & DC have an RPS
6 states have goals
KS: 20% by 2020
OR: 25% by 2025 (large utilities)*
5% - 10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)
IL: 25% by 2025
WV: 25% by 2025*†
CA: 33% by 2020

30. We’re Number 4!
Source : American Wind Energy Assoc. ( )

31. Resource Costs: Long Term
Source: NW Power and Conservation Council – Draft 6th Plan

32. Initiative 937 – Energy Independence Act
Sets the Policy Framework for Utility Development of Renewable Electricity
3% of Total Load by 2009
9% by 2012
15% by 2020
State’s large electric utilities must develop conservation plans to acquire all cost effective conservation
First plan must be completed by Jan. 1, 2010 and set targets for biennium

33. Bioenergy Development
Biodiesel Facilities
Anaerobic Digesters
Research on Alternative Feedstocks
Bioenergy
Biomass CHP

34. Not in My Backyard ! ! I
Gregoire approves wind-power project

35. Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

41. –General Dwight D. Eisenhower
"In preparing for battle, I have always found that plans are useless, but planning is indispensable."
–General Dwight D. Eisenhower

42. A successful state energy strategy
balance goals to:
Maintain competitive energy prices
Increase competitiveness
Meet the state's enivronmental goals
Be sustainable

43. Framework for success - alignment
Policy
Mandates - create markets
Tax incentives
regulation
Leverage partners
Private sector
Federal government

44. Clean Energy Leadership Council
Advisory group of clean energy industry leaders
Charged – How does the state build its clean energy industry?
Four major opportunity areas
Smart Grid
Energy Efficiency
“Green” building and the built environment
Sustainable biomass, biofuels, Bioproducts
Major study by Navigant Consulting – Fall ‘10

45. Grow and improve jobs in Washington
Align Core Mission
Grow and improve jobs in Washington
Align Policies and Execution
Policy and Innovation Unit within Commerce
“Sector Lead”
Eight principles will guide our work at Commerce
Businesses create most jobs. We must be closely connected to employers to be successful
Government action and policy significantly shape the state’s business climate
Strong economies require strong communities
A vibrant business community benefits all of us
Government should focus on broader policy that looks for outcomes rather than betting on specific technologies or approaches
Retaining our current employers and promoting their growth is our first priority
We will be opportunistic and nimble to respond to a rapidly changing global economy
We will focus first on priorities, and then establish an organizational structure to drive progress in those priority areas

46. Major State Energy Programs (ARRA)
Low-Income Weatherization $59 million
State Energy Program (SEP) $60 million
$38.5 million for Loan and Grant
$14. 5 neighborhood Energy Efficiency
$5 million credit enhancement for energy efficiency
$500k for farm efficiency tools
State and Local Energy Efficiency and Conservation Block Grants $56 million
Most directly to large local government and tribes
$6.4 million to small cities and counties
Transportation planning grants
Resource Conservation Manager grants

47. Major State Energy Programs (ARRA)
State and Local Block EE Block Grant Competitive
$390 million to 8 to 20 district energy efficiency projects
5 to 1 leverage
Large cities, counties, tribes, state
Residential and commercial sector energy efficiency
Also $ 63 million to small cities/counties for energy efficiency
Appliance Rebate Program $6.2 million
Energy Assurance $810,000
Utility Commission Assistance $900,000

48. What’s on the Horizon? Will natural gas have a new (old) role?
Have high gasoline prices (and the recession) permanently altered demand?
When will be have a price on carbon? Can we massively increase investment in efficiency?
What are the next big technological breakthroughs?
Electric vehicles
Next generation biofuels
Inexpensive photovoltaics
Zero energy buildings

49. Smart Energy $ Savings New services Reliability Security Efficiency
Environment
Safety

50. Key Trends/Observations - Energy
Building Energy Efficiency
Largely driven by building codes and appliance standards
Moving toward more efficient building with generation included
Best building practices integrate envelope, hvac, lighting and occupants
Efficiency activity driven by utility rebates, programs and public investment
Transportation Electrification
Washington State is involved in one of the largest demonstration of electric vehicles, charging infrastructure, energy storage (batteries)
Key challenge will be integrating with the existing electric system
Creating opportunities in Software, Composites, Smart Grid
Wind Energy
State is working with companies to capture more of the wind value chain – spare parts, operations, maintenance and training
East central, Southeast and the Gorge continue to draw development.
Diverse partners coming together for the world’s largest wind tradeshow.
Manufacturers attempting to apply excess capacity to this new sector 50

51. Smart Grid
Region involved in the largest smart grid demonstration project
Grid investments will be key to integrating renewable energy
Biofuels / bioeconomy
Significant aviation biofuel project to fulfill 15% of Seatac’s usage
Public fleets expanding use; nearing 20% on-road use in western WA
State Energy /Strategy / Clean Energy Leadership Council
Analyzing all fuels and sectors
Retain hydro power advantage – clean & cost-effective
Innovate new technologies and approaches
Build on the region’s strength

52. Reinvent fire
Produce
Transmit
Use

53. Contact Tim Stearns Senior Energy Policy Specialist
Washington State Department of Commerce