Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course

Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course

How to Plan Changes in Flight Safety Programs to Meet Future Safety Challenges

Welcome Safety Managers & all to EASS 2003, Geneva!

Flight Safety Foundation, European Advisory Committee

European Regions Airline Association

Oxford math lecturer, text author, 1850’s-1880’s
Charles Dodgson, Oxford math lecturer, text author, 1850’s-1880’s

Lewis Carroll writer of children's books 1850’s -1880’s
Caricature by Zach Trenholm, SALON Magazine.

Planning Alice in Wonderland

Alice said to the Cat, ‘Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?’

‘That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,’ said the Cheshire Cat.

‘I don’t much care where…’ said Alice.

‘Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,’ said the Cheshire Cat.

‘…so long as I get somewhere,’ Alice added as an explanation.

‘Oh, you’re sure to do that,’ said the Cheshire Cat, ‘if you only walk long enough.’

Flight safety program managers need to know which way to go…

& how far to walk to become accident preventers…

… and not become accident investigators!

Procedures & Examples of how to produce…
Safety Forecast & Plans

Annual Safety Forecast &
Annual Safety Plan Safety Forecast & Plans

...to meet Future Safety Challenges
Forecast & Plans

Paul Miller -pilots association, safety committee -association represents pilots who fly for a global logistics company & express package delivery service -B767 & B757 international line captain -Safety program manager: pilot association, 2 airports & a specialized air logistics organization

Safety program manager:
Paul Miller, safety committee member pilots association Safety program manager: pilot association, 2 airports & a specialized air logistics organization

Safety Forecasts & Plans

-Simple Procedures

-Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating

-Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards

-Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved

-Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged

-Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged -May be Unreported

-Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged -May be Unreported -Will affect a local organization…

-Simple Procedures -Estimating and Compensating -Expected Flight Safety Hazards -As yet Unresolved -As yet Unmanaged -May be Unreported -Will affect a local organization… …YOURS!

…All Safety is Local

Annual Safety Forecast
-based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening

-based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list

-based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list -logical inductive reasoning

-based on Early Detection of Hazards -using cultural listening -not exact science -daily working list -logical inductive reasoning -calculation of risk -mathematical, graphic modeling

What are Hazards?

What are Hazards? -Probable Risks

What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks

What are Hazards? -Probable Risks -Serious Risks People

What are Hazards? People -Probable Risks -Serious Risks
-Injury & Death

What are Hazards? People Property -Probable Risks -Serious Risks
-Injury & Death Property

What are Hazards? People Property -Probable Risks -Serious Risks
-Injury & Death Property -Damage & Destruction

What are Hazards? People $$Euros$$ Property -Probable Risks
-Serious Risks People $$Euros$$ -Injury & Death Property -Damage & Destruction

What are Hazards? People $$Euros$$ Property $$Euros$$ -Probable Risks
-Serious Risks People $$Euros$$ -Injury & Death Property $$Euros$$ -Damage & Destruction

What are Hazard$? People $$Euros$$ Property $$Euros$$
-Probable Risk$ -Serious Risk$ People $$Euros$$ -Injury & Death Property $$Euros$$ -Damage & Destruction Additional cost$?

Hazard Unresolved?

Hazard Unresolved? -no strategy for resolution?

Hazard Unresolved? -no strategy for resolution? -longstanding?

Hazard Unresolved? -no strategy for resolution? -longstanding?
-culturally accepted as “irresolvable”?

Hazard Unmanaged?

Hazard Unmanaged? -no manager for resolution?

Hazard Unmanaged? -no manager for resolution? -no assigned manager?

Hazard Unmanaged? -no manager for resolution? -no assigned manager?
-assigned manager not functioning?

Hazard Unreported?

Hazard Unreported? -New or emerging hazard?

Hazard Unreported? -New or emerging hazard? -Known but unreported?

Hazard Unreported? -New or emerging hazard? -Known but unreported?
-Reoccurring hazard?

Hazard Affect?

Hazard Affect? -people?

Hazard Affect? -people? -your local organization?

Hazard Affect? -people? -your local organization?
-customers, neighbors & visitors?

Hazard Affect?

Hazard Affect? -property & equipment?

Hazard Affect? -property & equipment? -your local organization?

Hazard Affect? -property & equipment? -your local organization?
-belonging to others?

Early Detection …is the key

Why Early Detection? The earlier a hazard is detected by a forecast, the earlier a resolution plan can be created.

Early Detection Theorem

The longer a hazard exists,

The longer a hazard exists, the higher the probability that it will cause a mishap

Hazard & Mishap Theorem
Why Detection at all? Hazard & Mishap Theorem

Why Detection at all? Hazard & Mishap Theorem A. Mishaps are ‘hazard-based’

Why Detection at all? Hazard & Mishap Theorem A. Mishaps are ‘hazard-based’ B. Hazards are ‘people-action’

Why Detection at all? Hazard & Mishap Theorem A. Mishaps are ‘hazard-based’ B. Hazards are ‘people-action’ or ‘lack-of-action’-based

Hazard & Mishap Theorem Corollary

Elimination of ‘people-based’ hazards…

Elimination of ‘people-based’ hazards…eliminates the basis for mishaps.

Safety Riddle:

Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur?
??

Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur
Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? Or does the hazard cause the mishap to occur? ? ? ??

Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur
Safety Riddle: Does the mishap cause the hazard to occur? Or does the hazard cause the mishap to occur? ? ? ?? ?

Quickness Corollary to Early Detection Theorem…

The quicker a hazard is resolved,

The quicker a hazard is resolved, the lower the probability that the hazard will cause a mishap.

The quicker a hazard is resolved, the lower the probability that the hazard will cause a mishap. The resolution time is as important as the resolution

Rabbit Response

Annual Safety Plan based on Rabbit Response of Resolution

-based on Rapid Response of Resolution
Annual Safety Plan -based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations

Annual Safety Plan -based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique

Annual Safety Plan -based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure

Annual Safety Plan -based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure Long Term Resolution: affecting Philosophy, Policy

Annual Safety Plan -based on Rapid Response of Resolution from Hazard Report Recommendations Immediate Intervention: affecting Procedure, Practice, Technique Interim Remediation: affecting Policy, Procedure Long Term Resolution: affecting Philosophy, Policy Hazard Intervention = Mishap Prevention

Early Detection Methods

-Internal

-Internal -Direct and Formal

Early Detection Methods -Internal -Direct and Formal
Verbal & written, in-person, , on-line, mail, phone call, suggestion box,

Verbal & written, in-person, , on-line, mail, phone call, suggestion box, your boss, your peers, your employees,

Verbal & written, in-person, , on-line, mail, phone call, suggestion box, your boss, your peers, your employees, training material, safety audits, on-site safety assist visits,

Verbal & written, in-person, , on-line, mail, phone call, suggestion box, your boss, your peers, your employees, training material, safety audits, on-site safety assist visits, your own safety inspections, any credible source.

-Internal -Indirect and Informal

Early Detection Methods -Internal -Indirect and Informal
Grapevine, water-cooler, ear-to-rail, inferred from other comments & reports,

Grapevine, water-cooler, ear-to-rail, inferred from other comments & reports, meeting comments, customers, visitors, anonymous source, smoke-on-horizon,

Grapevine, water-cooler, ear-to-rail, inferred from other comments & reports, meeting comments, customers, visitors, anonymous source, smoke-on-horizon, gossip, intelligence sources, your own intuition, experience, judgment,

Grapevine, water-cooler, ear-to-rail, inferred from other comments & reports, meeting comments, customers, visitors, anonymous source, smoke-on-horizon, gossip, intelligence sources, your own intuition, experience, judgment, piece together story, from any credible source.

-External -Formal and Informal

Early Detection Methods -External -Formal and Informal
Industry literature,

Industry literature, other industry literature, seminars, conferences,

Industry literature, other industry literature, seminars, conferences, workshops, trade organizations,

Industry literature, other industry literature, seminars, conferences, workshops, trade organizations, regulatory material, inferred from other safety organizations, press reports,

Industry literature, other industry literature, seminars, conferences, workshops, trade organizations, regulatory material, inferred from other safety organizations, press reports, other industry member’s actions, any credible source.

Credible Source

Cultural Listening Lessons

-Substance of Communications:

-Substance of Communications: what is being said, what is not being said?

-Substance of Communications: what is being said, what is not being said? -Response:

-Substance of Communications: what is being said, what is not being said? -Response: Acknowledge, propose remedy.

-Substance of Communications: what is being said, what is not being said? -Response: Acknowledge, propose remedy. -Style of Communications:

-Substance of Communications: what is being said, what is not being said? -Response: Acknowledge, propose remedy. -Style of Communications: how it is being said & what else can you infer?

-Substance of Communications: what is being said, what is not being said? -Response: Acknowledge, propose remedy. -Style of Communications: how it is being said & what else can you infer? -Response:

-Substance of Communications: what is being said, what is not being said? -Response: Acknowledge, propose remedy. -Style of Communications: how it is being said & what else can you infer? -Response: Give appreciation, credit, encouragement, positive reassurance that remedy is forthcoming, in cultural language of reporter (local, vernacular)

Probability

Probability -Probable, percentages, possible, likely, likelihood, potential, numerical advantage, mathematical model, graphs, charts, tables, historical data

Probability -Probable, percentages, possible, likely, likelihood, potential, numerical advantage, mathematical model, graphs, charts, tables, historical data -Local interpretations, verbal descriptions, artistic stories, traditional analogies, personal expressions of feelings.

Probability -Probable, percentages, possible, likely, likelihood, potential, numerical advantage, mathematical model, graphs, charts, tables, historical data -Local interpretations, verbal descriptions, artistic stories, traditional analogies, personal expressions of feelings. -WHATEVER WORKS BEST in cultural context of your local organization

Safety Forecasting

Safety Forecasting -Looking ahead

Safety Forecasting -Looking ahead -used in many businesses

Safety Forecasting -Looking ahead -used in many businesses
-based on principle of early detection

-based on principle of early detection of unreported, unmanaged & unresolved

-based on principle of early detection of unreported, unmanaged & unresolved hazards to people and property

-based on principle of early detection of unreported, unmanaged & unresolved hazards to people and property -based on principle of rapid response

-based on principle of early detection of unreported, unmanaged & unresolved hazards to people and property -based on principle of rapid response -based on classifying hazard as a procedure, practice, policy, technique or philosophy

Safety Forecasting -procedure is written step by step specific instructions such as Aircraft Operating Manual Instrument Landing Procedures

Safety Forecasting -procedure is written step by step specific instructions -practice is common customary application of a procedure by the pilot (practitioner) such as how to execute Instrument Landing Procedures

Safety Forecasting -procedure is written step by step specific instructions -practice is common customary application -policy is written organizational goal for all to follow such as, “all pilots shall be trained in Instrument Landing Procedures for operations during instrument conditions”

Safety Forecasting -procedure is written step by step specific instructions -practice is common customary application -policy is written organizational goal for all to follow -technique is an art, style or twist of how best to execute these landing practices to obtain increased airport capacity safely

Safety Forecasting -procedure is written step by step specific instructions -practice is common customary application -policy is written organizational goal for all to follow -technique is an art, style or twist -philosophy is a set of orderly rules of conduct for all to decide right from wrong such as instrument procedures improve public safety in commercial aviation.

Safety Forecasting -what are the people and property for which you have:

Safety Forecasting -what are the people and property for which you have: “responsibility, ownership, oversight, liability, duty of care, awareness or other local connection.” Missing Doppler radar story After 1978 microburst mishap and 1985 mishap major hub airport still did not Doppler radar. While it was the responsibility of the weather service, CAA and city airport, it was the airline which suffered the loss in life and money.

Sir, does your dog bite? No, my dog does not bite… Ouch! The dog bit me! You said your dog does not bite! Yes, but that is not my dog!

Safety Forecasting Deductive reasoning vs Inductive ?
-awareness from early detection -logical inductive reasoning Deductive reasoning vs Inductive ?

Safety Forecasting Will the hazard affect them?

Safety Forecasting Will the hazard affect them? A. Deduction:

Safety Forecasting A. Deduction: Will the hazard affect them?
-Yes, because it has affected them in the past

Safety Forecasting A. Deduction: Will the hazard affect them?
-Yes, because it has affected them in the past, or -No, because it has not affected them in the past.

Safety Forecasting Will the hazard affect them? B. Induction:

Safety Forecasting B. Induction: Will the hazard affect them?
-Yes, because it poses a probable, serious risk

Safety Forecasting B. Induction: Will the hazard affect them?
-Yes, because it poses a probable, serious risk, or -No, because my assets are probably not at serious risk.

Inductive reasoning -outside the data set -projecting outward
-educated guess -estimate -based on experience and judgment -financial, crop, business, sports, weather, housing, marketing, production, political, election, education forecasts.

Pothole in the Road

Pothole in the Road -gradually appears and gets worse

Pothole in the Road -gradually appears and gets worse
-every car doesn’t hit it

-every car doesn’t hit it -obvious for all to see

-every car doesn’t hit it -obvious for all to see -some cars hit it anyway

-every car doesn’t hit it -obvious for all to see -some cars hit it anyway -some of those cars blow a tire

-every car doesn’t hit it -obvious for all to see -some cars hit it anyway -some of those cars blow a tire -some of those lose control

-every car doesn’t hit it -obvious for all to see -some cars hit it anyway -some of those cars blow a tire -some of those lose control -some of those collide with a car or tree

-every car doesn’t hit it -obvious for all to see -some cars hit it anyway -some of those cars blow a tire -some of those lose control -some of those collide with a car or tree -some of those will be injured

Pothole in the Road -some of those will die

Pothole in the Road -some of those will die
-all because of a pothole in the road

-all because of a pothole in the road -the pothole could have been fixed as soon as it appeared

-all because of a pothole in the road -the pothole could have been fixed as soon as it appeared -Deduction says no one would get hurt because no one has been hurt yet.

-all because of a pothole in the road -the pothole could have been fixed as soon as it appeared -Deduction says no one would get hurt because no one has been hurt yet. -Induction says if we fix the pothole no one will get hurt.

Inductive Logic Safety managers must perfect inductive logic to prevent accidents

Inductive Logic Safety managers must perfect inductive logic to prevent accidents or they will spend a lot of time using deductive reasoning trying to explain why some disaster occurred.

Calculation of the Risk of the Hazard

Seriousness

Seriousness Probability

Very Large Function!

Broad range of Probabilities & Seriousness

Damage Injury Destruction Death
+Z risk Damage Injury Destruction Death +Y 100% Probability +X

Risk may vary by time of day, time of season, time of year

Times of high activity, low activity, combined activity & coincidence

Z=XY Z = X Y -Risk equals probability times seriousness
-Three dimensional curve, depicting the full range of risks. It is a graphic display of the safety challenge

Mathematical expression of
Hazard Risk of Cost of Loss or “Z” Z = sine |X| N (Y) Where: X = Hazard Probability from 0 to ‘here-it-comes’ Y = Hazard Seriousness from minor to major Sine = regular time fluctuations N = variable factors

N = n1+n2+n3+n4+n5+n6, where: n1 = Assigned legal punitive costs n2 = Loss of public relations image & market share n3 = Loss of managerial talent to resolving disaster n4 = Loss of company growth & productivity n5 = Employee morale destruction n6 = Eventual discovery that disaster was preventable causing loss of confidence

A graph of the mathematical equation ‘Z= sine|X|(NY)’ gives a visual clue to the magnitude of the safety hazard resolution challenge! .

Hazard Risk of Cost of Loss is product of two other factors & is somewhat geometric

Risk (costs) = probability x severity Z = X Y where Z, X,Y>0

Severity and probability grow together the costs begin a rise in risk cost.

Safety Forecast may involve you becoming aware of hazards such as these:
-Flightcrew observing language-based misunderstood ATC instructions, which have led to close encounters with terrain, heard about on a crew bus -Increased employee auto mishap injuries, heard about from health benefit director -unreported ? -unmanaged ? -unresolved ?

Planning

…from local safety forecast

Planning involves very specific procedures, which are clear for your local organization to follow.

-Innovative flight crew terrain hazard awareness training

-All-employee drive-safe activities

-All-employee drive-safe activities Examples of local flight safety programs

-All-employee drive-safe activities Examples of local flight safety programs Responding to forecasts of unresolved hazards

-All-employee drive-safe activities Examples of local flight safety programs Responding to forecasts of unresolved hazards, Preventing accidents rather than investigating aviation disasters

Planning involves very specific recommended procedures for external organizations

-Coordinated Interagency Premishap Preparation

-Letters of Safety Concern

-Letters of Safety Concern -Examples of specific recommendations

-Letters of Safety Concern -Examples of specific recommendations for organizations external to your local operation

Example of annual safety forecast

Example of annual safety forecast & annual safety plan based on forecast.

-Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast

-Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections,

-Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections, industry literature and seminars,

-Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections, industry literature and seminars, expressions of probability and severity determinations.

-Airport operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections, industry literature and seminars, expressions of probability and severity determinations. -From the Forecast

-Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections, industry literature and seminars, expressions of probability and severity determinations. -From the Forecast an Annual Safety Plan

-Airport Operations safety department produced an Annual Safety Forecast based on culturally interpreted hazard report data, logical projections, industry literature and seminars, expressions of probability and severity determinations. -From the Forecast an Annual Safety Plan was developed to address the hazards.

Annual Hazard Forecast for Airport Ops
1. Bird strikes, bird activity & habitat growth reported by on-site ornithology safety visit last year 2. FOD from construction observed migrating to airport ramp, airlines reporting more FOD damage in industry seminar 3. Air Disaster local coordination problems experienced in communications, transportation, tasking 4. Increased hazmat employee exposure read about in trade magazine and some episodes experienced locally 5. Passenger & employee minor injury increase reported due to slippery floors and tripping hazards 6. Employee driving losses & vehicular damage increase mentioned by airport medical staff 7. Airport highway construction activities due to increase without sufficient study of alternate traffic lanes and pedestrian walk paths

Annual Safety Plan for Airport Ops

January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification

January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning

January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training

January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking

January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review

January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June-All Employee First-aid Training

January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June-All Employee First-aid Training July-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication

January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June-All Employee First-aid Training July-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication August-All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning

January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June-All Employee First-aid Training July-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication August-All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning September-Bird Activity & Habitat Ornithology Review

January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June-All Employee First-aid Training July-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication August-All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning September-Bird Activity & Habitat Ornithology Review October-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Transportation

January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June-All Employee First-aid Training July-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication August-All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning September-Bird Activity & Habitat Ornithology Review October-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Transportation November-All Employee Hazmat Awareness Training

January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June-All Employee First-aid Training July-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication August-All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning September-Bird Activity & Habitat Ornithology Review October-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Transportation November-All Employee Hazmat Awareness Training December-Access Highway Traffic & Pedestrian Safety Review

January- Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February- All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March- All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April- Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May- Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June- All Employee First-aid Training July- Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication August- All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning September- Bird Activity & Habitat Ornithology Review October- Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Transportation November- All Employee Hazmat Awareness Training December- Access Highway Traffic & Pedestrian Safety Review

January-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Alert Notification February-All Ramp FOD Deep Cleaning March-All Employee Seatbelt Drive Safe Training April-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Interagency Tasking May-Passenger Terminal Safety Inspection & Ramp Vehicle Review June-All Employee First-aid Training July-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Radio Communication August-All Airfield Grassy Area FOD Deep Cleaning September-Bird Activity & Habitat Ornithology Review October-Quarterly Premishap Exercise-Transportation November-All Employee Hazmat Awareness Training December-Access Highway Traffic & Pedestrian Safety Review

Annual Hazard Forecast for Flight Ops

1. Lack of effective flight crew hazard reporting system.

1. Lack of effective flight crew hazard reporting system. 2. Insufficient meteorological support & ATC procedures for convective weather flight ops avoidance.

1. Lack of effective flight crew hazard reporting system. 2. Insufficient meteorological support & ATC procedures for convective weather flight ops avoidance. 3. Regulatory shortfall concerning flight duty and rest.

1. Lack of effective flight crew hazard reporting system. 2. Insufficient meteorological support & ATC procedures for convective weather flight ops avoidance. 3. Regulatory shortfall concerning flight duty and rest. 4. Insufficient aircraft rescue and firefighting (ARFF) capability at smaller airfields, during ‘off-peak’ traffic hours, when you operate.

1. Lack of effective flight crew hazard reporting system. 2. Insufficient meteorological support & ATC procedures for convective weather flight ops avoidance. 3. Regulatory shortfall concerning flight duty and rest. 4. Insufficient aircraft rescue and firefighting (ARFF) capability at smaller airfields, during ‘off-peak’ traffic hours, when you operate. 5. Varying levels of regulatory safety concerning the required equipment for proposed DRVSM operations.

1. Lack of effective flight crew hazard reporting system. 2. Insufficient meteorological support & ATC procedures for convective weather flight ops avoidance. 3. Regulatory shortfall concerning flight duty and rest. 4. Insufficient aircraft rescue and firefighting (ARFF) capability at smaller airfields, during ‘off-peak’ traffic hours, when you operate. 5. Varying levels of regulatory safety concerning the required equipment for proposed DRVSM operations. 6. Human factors problems view as labor-management issue with cultural overtones.

Annual Safety Plan for Flight Ops

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system,

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures,

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved.

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product,

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere.

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures.

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures. 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest.

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures.

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF).

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall.

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations of your organization.

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations 5. Attend CAA hearings to call for “One Level Of Safety” for all DRVSM operations communication.

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations 5. Attend CAA hearings to call for “One Level Of Safety” for all DRVSM operations communication. Publish proceedings in company newsletter.

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations 5. Attend CAA hearings to call for “One Level Of Safety” for all DRVSM operations communication. Publish proceedings in company newsletter. 6. Establish Human Factors Workshop based on latest human factors research,

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations 5. Attend CAA hearings to call for “One Level Of Safety” for all DRVSM operations communication. Publish proceedings in company newsletter. 6. Establish Human Factors Workshop based on latest human factors research, to influence company culture

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations 5. Attend CAA hearings to call for “One Level Of Safety” for all DRVSM operations communication. Publish proceedings in company newsletter. 6. Establish Human Factors Workshop based on latest human factors research, to influence company culture, deemphasize human factors as management-labor issue.

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to Change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations 5. Attend CAA hearings to call for “One Level Of Safety” for all DRVSM operations communication. Publish proceedings in company newsletter. 6.Establish Human Factors Workshop based on latest human factors research, to influence company culture, deemphasize labor issue.

1. Develop on-line hazard reporting system, with built-in response procedures, feed-back procedures & live person management of hazards until resolved 2. Obtain on-line vendor meteorology product, accessible by flight crew anywhere. Contact CAA ATC quality assurance manager to discuss better convective weather ATC display & weather avoidance procedures 3. Publish position paper and submit legal abstracts to CAA about regulations affecting flight duty and rest. Review company manual concerning flight duty and rest procedures. 4. Begin campaign to change philosophy of government administrators concerning funding rescue & firefighting (ARFF). Begin pilot education program to explain ARFF shortfall. Contact local ARFF managers to improve service for particular scheduled operations 5. Attend CAA hearings to call for “One Level Of Safety” for all DRVSM operations communication. Publish proceedings in company newsletter. 6. Establish Human Factors Workshop based on latest human factors research, to influence company culture, deemphasize human factors as management-labor issue.

Conclusion Charting a safe course

Safety Forecast 1. Unreported 2. Unmanaged 3. Unresolved
-based on hazards which are: 1. Unreported 2. Unmanaged 3. Unresolved 4. Local Affect

Safety Plan 2. To manage hazard 3. To resolve hazard
-based on Local Safety Forecast: 1. To report hazard 2. To manage hazard 3. To resolve hazard 4. To protect local assets

Successful Flight Safety Program Procedures…

to keep one step ahead of the next big accident
… to keep one step ahead of the next big accident

! ! ! ! ! …lower your local accident rate to zero!

Forecasting Hazards & Planning Change to meet Future Safety Challenges!

Thank you!

Forecasting Hazards & Charting a Safe Course

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