1. Preliminary Look at Public Perceptions of and Responses to Warnings in the 27 April 2011Tornado Outbreak
Kim Klockow
University of Oklahoma
Elise Schultz and Stephanie Mullins UAHuntsville
18 October 2011
National Weather Association
Birmingham, AL 1

2. This is Alabama?? Cullman EF-4 (Morrow) Cullman/Arab EF-4
Hackleburg/Tanner EF-5
Rainsville EF-5

3. Broad-brush overview of the event from a warnings/storm tracks perspective. Some places had upwards of 12 warnings (just at their location, not even considering county). Different practices at two WFOs, different average lead-times. Final analysis will try to identify any observable effect (may be really challenging).
Brief description of where I went, sampling method, data collection method. Note the flexibility to formulate new hypotheses, necessary given the levels of fatality observed. 71 interviews (mainly members of the public, 5 officials & broadcasters). ~ 30 seconds.
Situation well-forecast. Lots of information out days before. Still a severely confusing situation to understand w/am convection, so let’s try to break down how people figured out what was going on, and what responses looked like.

4. Public perceptions & response
Note: Preliminary findings!
Public was largely cognizant of anticipated severity
Critically important: Built-up awareness, continued attention
Relation to April 3, 1974
Optimism bias always present
What realistic response looks like
Uncertainty reduction/calibration ideas
The last few minutes
Mix of information sources
TV, radio* & NWR, sirens**, internet (NWS, private vendors)
Family/friends, police scanners (local)
The environment!
Locally-situated understandings of hazards/science, or “folk science”
A significant issue: local, situated understandings of hazards, or “folk science”
On anticipated severity: Why built-up awareness was so important. Optimism bias = reduces tendency to take preventative care. Nobody ever thinks it will happen to them. This is approximately true (bias is somewhat small)…it’s extremely unlikely. Well-calibrated to the risk overall. What can we hope for, then? Awareness. Suspicion carried through an event that something just might happen to them. Odds increasing. People are thinking about this probabilistically, think in terms of odds.
People know the low probability is low. Warning != “seek shelter immediately,” though most know it’s what they’ve been *taught*. They *learn* what reality is over many trials. Result? High certainty required for action. To me: comes from spatial awareness + personalization + belief. When does this come together? The last few minutes. But note… response is not only diving for shelter! It’s also preparing to shelter, which happens at much lower stages of certainty + high awareness.
Radio = used more heavily as tornadoes approached (power outages, driving). Very important note about when radio audiences are listening critically, what they’re listening for.
Maybe we shouldn’t fight the use of environmental signals – Try to tell people what they’ll see! Not just from a chopper, but on the ground. Chasers can be very useful!

5. Spatial Awareness
What information, specifically, was sought? What is that *best* information to provide?
Loops, trajectory cones, TOAs* (primary)
Local information (primary)
Each person had an action/response threshold.
People don’t comprehend large tornado scale
Footage of tornadoes (secondary)
Three sources of uncertainty
Trajectory of storm (where)
Tornado yes/no (existence)
Severity/strength (how bad)
Key Idea: There are a lot of tradeoffs involved!
Level of detail
Provide clear, simple, and decision-relevant information
Technical capabilities to provide detail without meaningful errors.
So what’s most important? Helping them to gauge level of uncertainty via trajectory inference, timing estimation. Something they can monitor and update, like how we validate model performance.
Info: Think about this from a cognitive perspective. What task are people performing? Uncertainty reduction IF you have their attention. You don’t always, in most cases, you have scattered attention/cognitive load. A “thin-slicing” mode for those familiar with the writing of Malcolm Gladwell, has specific properties. Among them the incredible need for noise reduction, ability to identify *most relevant information* declines. You must be careful with what you’re giving, especially in complex situations like this. A simple and most highly relevant set of information is much much better than thoroughly detailed, technical information! Difficult task: be specific (local), but not dramatically over-detailed.
What the world looks like, approximately, to someone responding to a tornado threat.

6. Suggestions from interviewees
Fix county-based sirens so they’re a better cue
Their definition of a “false alarm” != ours
Tell people to put their shoes on or grab them before seeking shelter
Many injuries sustained when leaving their safe place, rescues precluded
Tell ambulances to carry fix-a-flat
Broadcasters: Be aware of radio audience!
Comprehensible spatial references, scale descriptions
Especially important when audience grows in the final minutes before a tornado hits, and nearing storm knocks out power: continued understanding is critical
Don’t linger too long on tornado video or a zoomed-in still image
Keep a map up so people know where the tornado is and is going
Give people a small inset map so they know where you’re zoomed in to
Show loops so people can infer trajectory

7. Cullman County Population: 80,500
Sirens only turned on for tornado warnings
Increase in reports of SLC types after 27th
Public on edge
Talks to public to advocate preparedness
Facebook page starting Jan: ~3,000 “likes”
Post other items (road status, etc) in addition to wx info
Reduction in phone calls
Hams, fax, media, …

8. Marion County Population: ~30,000 Public aware prior to 27th
led to preparedness actions?
Emergency response overwhelmed
Communication issues
, office twitter account (~60 followers)
Power loss – “was like we went back in time”
Mass notification system: “wish list” ($$)
22 community shelters in county
Recovery/response difficult w/ limited resources, diversified industry
Tuscaloosa vs. Hackleburg (pop. 1300)

9. Lawrence County Population: ~35,000 Sirens coverage limited
3 main populated areas
Moulton, Town Creek, and Browns Ferry
Talking siren (Moulton) used on April 27
Once power lost = no sirens
NWS  EMA and in warning text – good job of emphasis multi rounds, but public let guard down
Overwhelming new interest in shelters
FEMA assistance program
5 community shelters approved, 8 more applied for
Only one now is in Moulton (pop. ~3200)
Facebook account: started after 27th, 1500+

10. Mt Hope (Lawrence Co) Residents
Left: Shelter residents, their friends & neighbors survived in
Bottom left: entrance way (note pole that blocked way out)
Below: interviewing residents/friends who survived, progress on new house with shelter in background

11. Madison County Population: ~320,000 Close connection to NWS
Most all EMs have this
Location helps Madison here
Sirens used only for ][ warnings
Can only alert entire county
Problem of a perceived higher FAR
Website, media, Facebook page
As with all EMs, strong connection with HAMs
Difficulties with allocation of resources
Sharing amongst other counties good, but a challenge when multiple rounds of svr wx impact the region over the entire day

12. DeKalb County Population: ~70,000 Good model for others
Sirens sectioned off
Helps to limit an increase in perceived FAR
Mass notification system
Public signs up (free)
Phone calls, text messages
Facebook page: 2000+
NWS forecasts, warnings, statements
Road, power, other conditions
2 way flow of info, reduction in phone calls
On 27th though, power loss…
Post 27th: SLC reports

13. Rainsville (DeKalb Co) Resident
This was home, and yet they are grateful, hopeful, and optimistic.
Above, left: aftermath to home, garage, vehicles
Right: shelter where family survived

14. Now vs. Need: Localized warnings 27th well forecasted
SBWs good, but sirens not tied to them in most areas
Increases “perceived” FAR
27th well forecasted
Shorter term info to public
TV, Smartphones, NWR, etc
Social media presence – now in nearly all EMA offices
Awareness high now, but for how long?
Geospatial reference improvements

15. Thank You!
Questions?