1. Severe Weather Planning
Andy Bailey
National Weather Service
Kansas City / Pleasant Hill, MO

2. Agenda Importance of Weather NWS Overview What is available on the web
Planning and Safety Rules

3. Economic and Societal Impacts
Annual Cost Deaths
Tornadoes : $2.9 billion 44
Floods: $2.4 billion 96
Hurricanes: $6.4 billion 20
Winter Storms > $1 Billion 47
Lighning > $1 Billion 175
Hail $2.3 Billion

4. Weather Impacts… Power generation costs Shipping costs
Transportation costs (airlines etc)
Building material costs
Heating / cooling costs
Food prices
Insurance rates
Employee costs

5. Weather Impacts… How does weather impact your employees? Telecommute?
Snow days at child’s school
Sick days
Missed / delayed flights

6. How does weather affect your business?

7. What are you doing to plan for weather?

8. NWS Overview

9. What We Do Produce Weather, Water and Climate Forecasts and Warnings
For All Americans
To Protect Life and Property
To Enhance the National Economy
Data and Products:
Government Agencies
Private Sector
The Public
Global Communities
Weather and data are becoming more important to economy and business decisions
“The annual cost of electricity could decrease by at least $1 billion if the accuracy of weather forecasts improved 1 degree Fahrenheit.” USA Today, 6/19/01

10. What We Do
The NWS is the only OFFICIAL voice for issuing severe weather warnings.
Produce public, aviation, and fire weather forecasts
Provide support to other local, state and federal government agencies.
River and flood forecasts and services
Largest data collection network in the world
NOAA Weather Radio
Skywarn Spotter Program
Cooperative Observation Program
Outreach projects

11. National Weather Service Offices Nationwide

12. Background Information
Lots and Lots of free NWS stuff available
National Weather Service limits on services
Private Weather Vendors
$$ for interpretation and customized service

13. How a Forecast was Made .
2) Forecaster looks at forecast guidance from several numerical weather prediction models and begins making a mental image of the forecast

14. How a Forecast was Made
Once the forecaster creates the mental image of the forecast they then used to…
Type the aviation forecast
Type the public forecast
Type the fire weather forecast
The forecaster could spend up to 3 hours a day typing!

15. New Forecast Method
Observed and computer forecast guidance acts as base forecast
Forecaster then adjusts the gridded model forecast in a digital forecast database to best match expected forecast
Digital forecast database is the source for traditional forecasts, and new highly customized forecasts

16. Computer forecasts directly input into Graphical Forecast Editing Software

17. Forecasters edit gridded digital data

18. Not Just Temperature Temp Dewpoint RH Wind Sky Weather
Probability of Precip
Snow amounts
Rain amounts
Numerous Fire Weather Parameters

19. nws.noaa.gov/ndfd Formats Available Free in GIS integratable “grids”
XML Web Service
Graphics
nws.noaa.gov/ndfd

20. Every Local NWS Office has an extensive web page
Forecasts
Radar
Climate
Warnings

21. Getting Your Forecast Click on your location
Available in other formats

22. Forecast in Yet Another Format…

23. Interpreting Radar Data
How Radar works

24. NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill
WSR-88D Capabilities
Reflectivity
“Hot” colors means more intense echoes (heavy rain/hail)
Simply a measure of “reflected” energy
Velocity
“Warm” colors -Winds blowing away from the radar
“Cool” colors – Winds blowing toward the radar
Self explanatory.

25. Radar Precipitation Estimates
Overestimate Causes:
Hail Contamination
Evaporation in sub
cloud layer
Underestimate Causes:
Tropical-like regimes

26. Products to Anticipate Severe Weather
HWO
Provides an outlook up to seven days out to the potential for severe weather
Svr Tstorm/Tornado Watch
Provides a few hours notice that conditions are condusive to severe weather should storms develop
Warnings
Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or imminent

27. Anticipating Severe Weather
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Focus on expected threats.
Seven day outlook for severe weather.
Issued twice daily 6 a.m. and 1 p.m.
Broadcast continuously on NWR.
Slide depicts samples of our local web page. First graphic is the point-and-click forecast. Talk about the graphics and text involved in the digital forecasts, and how it too is a good planning tool. Point out the link to radar imagery and current weather conditions, then describe that if there are hazards expected in the short term, that the red link “Hazardous Weather Outlook” will appear. If warnings or watches are in effect, they will also show up as red banner links. Click the pointer to change image to an example of an HWO. Explain its contents (bullets to the right) and how it is the preparedness tool of choice for the spotter and emergency manager. Click to go to the next slide when finished.

28. Products to Anticipate Severe Weather
HWO
Provides an outlook up to seven days out to the potential for severe weather
Svr Tstorm/Tornado Watch
Provides a few hours notice that conditions are conducive to severe weather should storms develop
Warnings
Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or imminent

29. Severe Weather Watch WATCH
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 73 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK AM CST SUN MAR THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN ILLINOIS EASTERN KANSAS MOST OF MISSOURI EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1155 AM UNTIL 1000 PM CST.
...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER... THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 90 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST OF EMPORIA KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH OF DECATUR ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
WATCH
Conditions are favorable for a severe weather event in or near the watch area
Watches are issued for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Floods and Floods
Talking points: Watches are issued for large areas covering many counties. Typically issued before storms initiate and are valid through the expected event. Example shown is from the late morning of march 12th (PDS Tornado box for the afternoon/evening). Mouse click will switch to the text version of the product.

30. Products to Anticipate Severe Weather
HWO
Provides an outlook up to seven days out to the potential for severe weather
Svr Tstorm/Tornado Watch
Provides a few hours notice that conditions are conducive to severe weather should storms develop
Warnings
Severe weather/tornadoes are occurring or imminent

31. Severe Weather Warning
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 807 PM CST SUN MAR
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHERN PETTIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI NORTHWESTERN COOPER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTHERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI
* UNTIL 845 PM CST
* AT 804 PM CST...TRAINED SPOTTERS ARE TRACKING A LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO NEAR KNOB NOSTER. DOPPLER IS SHOWING THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.
* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR… HOUSTONIA BY 815 PM CST. THE TOWNS OF EMMA…NESLON AND BLACKWATER ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS TORNADIC STORM. THE SAFEEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS AVAILABLE…SEEK SHELTER IN THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES…EVACUATE THEN AND GET INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE…LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.
LAT...LON
WARNING
A severe weather event is imminent or occurring in the Warned area
Warnings are issued for Tornadoes, Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Floods, and Floods
Talking points: Warnings are storm driven events that urge people to take immediate action to protect life or property. Average valid time is 30 to 60 minutes for very specific areas. Point out polygon warnings (will be discussed on next slide).
Warned Area

32. County-Based VS Storm-Based Warnings

33. How Walmart Uses Polygons
Walmart EOC uses GIS to overlay polygons onto a store location map
Walmart EOC then calls individual stores affected by warnings alerting them of the threat

34. Storm Prediction Center Website www.spc.noaa.gov
Good place for large scale outlook maps, and technical discussions as to severe weather threats across the country.

35. How To Receive Warnings
NOAA Weather Radio
Nationwide network
Alarm Feature
Portable devices available
Programmable to customize by location or warning type desired
Equip every facility with one

36. Overall Planning/Safety
Before the season begins…
Create your weather safety plan and train employees/volunteers
During the season…
Maintain your situational awareness
Assign a person or position to be the weather watcher
If thunderstorms are forecast, be sure to communicate appropriate threats and safety info
Practice, Practice, Practice

37. Threats From Thunderstorms
The biggest threat from thunderstorms at outdoor events is lightning.
Other risks include Hail…
straight-line winds >80 mph
possibly a tornado
flooding in multiuse areas

38. Threats From Thunderstorms-Lightning
Kills more people than tornadoes
Dangerous at great distances from parent storm
30-30 rule
If the time between seeing lightning and hearing thunder is less than 30 seconds seek shelter immediately
Don’t emerge from shelter until 30 minutes after last thunder is heard-many deaths occur after the storm has passed

39. Threats From Thunderstorms-Hail
If you event has thousands or even hundreds of attendees, the potential for numerous injuries is high.
If you follow the 30/30 lightning rule, hail should not be an issue.

40. Questions to Ponder
Do you have a severe weather plan for work and home? (if so do you practice it?)
How can you integrate weather preparedness and data into your companies operations?
How can your business perform better, and keep employees and customers safe using weather data?
What’s stopping you from taking action?

41. Questions?