1. 5 question quiz on Chapter 6
Name one primary agent of political socialization.
What ideology is this?: People who believe government tries to do too many things that should be left to private interests and economic markets.
True or False: Men and women tend to have the same views on abortion.
I am a if I believe that government intervenes in too many things – both socially and economically.
The larger the sample size, the smaller the (two words).

2. Public Opinion & Political Socialization
How do we form political opinions?
How are our opinions measured?
Do our opinions matter?
Should public opinion control policy?

3. INSTA-POLL Question 1 How much do you support the troops? Lots Plenty
Totally
110%

4. INSTA-POLL Question 2
How many poll responses do you usually read before they start to get annoying?
One does the trick
I don’t mind if there are two
Three is a perfectly appropriate number
Around four they start to get a bit grating
Five, I would say, is probably pushing it
Six responses is definitely too many
At seven, I really get angry
I will destroy you

5. What are the origins of public opinion?
Public opinion is the attitudes and values people have about issues and events that they share publicly
In the political realm, most Americans value equality of opportunity, liberty, democracy, and self-government
How a person perceives the above values forms their political ideology
So how are these beliefs formed?

6. Political Socialization: How People “Learn” Politics
Primary Agents of Socialization:
Family:
2/3 of children have the same beliefs as their parents
Like religion (or the family’s favorite sports team)
School:
Elementary School: Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, and others hailed as national heroes; pledge of allegiance, national holidays, national anthem
Middle School: More nuanced, but still emphasis on leaders and institutions
High School: Political processes, equality in the classroom

7. Secondary Agents of Socialization
Social Groups
Voluntary: Religion, professional groups, etc.
Involuntary: Gender, age, race, ethnicity, etc.
Higher Ed: increases tolerance to unpopular opinions and general political awareness; political activism
Income: Higher income values more personal choice; lower income values more government control
Region or “Red” and “Blue” America: Red America tends to be more rural than Blue America.
Race: Is the “minority experience” in America different than the “white” experience? Click Here
Gender (Gap): Women tend to be against war and military action; Men tend to be against affirmative action and social welfare programs Click here
Media: The media creates a lens (sometimes skewed), through which we believe is true of society

8. Race Relations in America
Black Responses
White Responses

9. Men and Women: War and Peace
Government Action
Men
% Approving of Action
Women
%Approving of Action
Going to war against Iraq (2003) 66 50
Prefer cease fire over NATO air strikes on Yugoslavia (1999) 44 51
Ending ban on DADT in (1993) 34
Military operation against Somali warlord 72 60
Going to war against Iraq (1991) 53
What about abortion?
Men and Women are generally equally split pro-choice and pro-life

10. How do we frame what we think?
Political Ideology

11. Extra Credit Go to www.isidewith.com
Take the quiz, answer all the extended questions too.
me the results by Sunday, October 28th at midnight.
You get extra credit!

12. Party Identification
A person’s sense of loyalty to one party or the other
2/3 of Americans call themselves Dems or Repubs
Most loyalty lasts a lifetime
Dems and Repubs differ significantly in their opinion
Number one predictor of how people will vote
Selective perception . . .
Do we choose to watch/listen to/pay attention to those who speak our gospel?
The Daily Show Lactate Intolerance

13. Partisanship and Issue Opinions

14. Political Ideology
Consistent opinions about policy goals (rarely are we consistent)
Economic and social policy questions
What should be the government’s role in the economy?
In social/cultural issues?
Typically,
Conservatives prefer less government intervention in the economy but want to use government power to uphold traditional cultural values
The reverse is true of liberals

15. Garbage In, Garbage Out.
Political Polling

16. Some key concepts about political polling
Random Sampling – everyone has an equal chance of being polled
Probability Sampling: About 1000 people is a big enough sample to represent the entire population of the US
Sampling Error: the plus/minus factor for each poll; and each question
Gallup polls have correctly predicted every presidential election since (except one: 1948)
Exit polls: polling that measures election returns; can affect western time zones
Straw polls: polling that informally measures a future outcome; like a caucus

17. Other polling concepts
Bellwether Districts/States
Districts or States that predict actual election outcomes with a high degree of accuracy
Ohio

18. Obama’s Presidential Approval Ratings
proval-1044.html

19. What causes presidential approval ratings to increase or decrease?
What Increases Ratings
What Decreases Ratings
Economic conditions if good
After a major political event
“The Bounce” McCain went from 45% to 50% after conventions
Romney and the first debate: 36% had a better opinion of Romney after debate (18% for Obama)
Use of the media, spin
State of the Union, Addresses, etc.
Crises: “rally around the flag” effect
Economic conditions if bad
Scandal
Foreign policy if things are going bad
Over time, ratings generally decrease

20. Clinton’s Job Approval Ratings

21. Bush’s Job Approval Ratings

22. Limitations of polls The change of phone use over time
Asking questions on issues not considered by the person being polled
Lying
Question wording
Question order: MPI
Polls are funded by groups who have an interest in knowing certain information

23. Double Barreled Questions
Questions that group topics may weaken results, consider the following:
Please tell me whether you would vote for or against a candidate who supports reducing federal funding spending on education and welfare

24. Loaded Questions (Push Polling)
"John McCain calls the campaign finance system corrupt, but as chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, he raises money and travels on the private jets of corporations with legislative proposals before his committee. In view of this, are you much more likely to vote for him, somewhat more likely to vote for him, somewhat more likely to vote against him or much more likely to vote against him?"

25. Confusing Questions
Does it seem possible or does it seem impossible to you that the Holocaust never happened?
What does “yes” mean?

26. Reliability Check Case Study: Abortion Question Construction Matters; Consider the following
With respect to the abortion issue, would you consider yourself to be pro- choice or pro-life? (2005, CNN/USA Today Poll) 51% Pro-choice 42% Pro-life 3% Mixed/Neither 3% Don’t know what that term means 1% No opinion This is considered a “dichotomous question,” because there are really only two responses

27. What happens when the wording and options are changed?
Do you think abortion should be legal under any circumstances, legal only in certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances? (2005, Gallup Poll) 23% Legal under any circumstances 53% Legal only under certain circumstances 22% Illegal in all circumstances 2% No opinion How have the results changed from the first question to this one? When there are three options, the public takes the middle ground (in this case)

28. Outcomes change again, with a new question:
Which of the following best represents your views about abortion – the choice on abortion should be left up to the woman and her doctor, abortion should be legal only in cases of rape, incest, or when the woman’s life is at risk, or abortion should be illegal in all circumstances? (2005 NBC News/WSJ Poll) 55% Should be left up to the woman and her doctor 29% Legal only in cases of rape/incest/life is at risk 14% Illegal in all circumstances 2% Not sure

29. Our test: Placement of the MPI question
First on yellow sheet; last on blue sheet
Opinion of Congress (Yellow)/President (Blue)
Hypothesis is that opinion of Congress will be lower than the President
Whether there is a gender gap
Will females and males differ in their responses?

30. 2011-2012: Right/Wrong Direction, Male/Female

31. 2011-2012: Obama Approval, Male/Female

32. 2011-2012: Congress Approval, Male/Female

33. Obama/Congress, Men/Women, Approval

34. Obama/Congress: Immigration

35. Obama/Congress: Healthcare

36. Obama/Congress: Economy

37. MOST PRESSING ISSUE 2011-2012 Yellow Sheet (first question)
Blue Sheet (last question)
Economy
Unemployment
Healthcare
Economy
Jobs
Healthcare

38. Period 6 Overall Results (Yellow Sheet) 2010-2011

39. Period 6 Overall Results (Blue Sheet) 2010-2011

40. Period 7 Overall Results: (Yellow Sheet) 2010-2011

41. Period 7 Results: (Blue Sheet) 2010-2011

42. Blue v. Yellow: Obama’s ratings v. Congress’ ratings

43. Top Four Most Pressing Issues 2010-2011
Yellow Sheet P. 6
Blue Sheet P. 6
Economy
Healthcare
I don’t know
War
Economy
Healthcare
War
Education

44. Most Pressing Issue Period 7
Yellow Sheet p.7
Blue Sheet p.7
Economy
Healthcare
Immigration
War
Healthcare
Economy
Border Issues
Budget

45. So, do public opinion polls really matter?
They do:
Study of 50 years of polling data shows that when public opinion changes, policy usually changed too
Between 1935 and 1979, in two-thirds of all cases, policy changes followed the mood of the public
So do politicians pander to the public?

46. They don’t. (Most of the time.)
Some issues are too sharply divided
Abortion
Illegal Immigration
Some issues are too complex for consistent opinion
Federal Budget
Some issues are misunderstood
War in Iraq
Healthcare legislation
“Occupy Wall Street”
Chicken and egg: Does opinion influence policy or does policy influence opinion? The problem is that neither are “fixed.”

47. Congress and Public Opinion
Congress members’ voting decisions are enhanced by public opinion polls when:
Congress members perceive that they have a duty to their constituents to represent their constituents’ wishes
Congress members have an ambition to get re-elected
Congress members voting decisions are limited by public opinion polls when:
Congress members want to avoid being perceived as indecisive by their supporters
Congress members want to avoid losing the support of their party

48. So, after all that, how do you answer the following?
How do we form political opinions?
How are our opinions measured?
Do our opinions matter?
Does public opinion control policy?